The Philadelphia Phillies may have made one of the biggest offseason acquisitions in MLB history when they signed high-priced free agent outfielder Bryce Harper to a long-term contract, but right now, the Phils look nothing like the World Series contenders they were expected to be entering the 2019 MLB regular season.
While it’s still early, Philadelphia will be somewhat desperate to snap out of their current funk when they take on the NL East division rival New York Mets in the finale of their three game series on Wednesday. Now, let’s find out if the Phils can get their act together for this one or whether the Amazins’ are the better pick to hold it down in the Big Apple. Let’s analyze this game’s MLB betting odds.
Phillies vs Mets MLB Week 4 Lines & Game Preview
- When: Wednesday April 24, 2019, 7:10 PM ET
- Where: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
- TV: ESPN, SNY
- MLB Odds: NY Mets -105/ Philadelphia -115 (total 8.5)
- Starting Pitchers: Velasquez vs Vargas
Why Bet On Philadelphia
The Phillies have been more entertaining with the media than they’ve been on the field recently. After suffering a humbling 5-1 loss in the series opener on Monday that saw superstar Bryce Harper ejected for arguing with the umpire from the dugout, veteran right-hander Jake Arrieta ripped Philly’s newest star in the locker room.
“We need him in right field. I don’t care how bad the umpire is, he wasn’t great for either side,” Arrieta said. “I’m out there, trying to make pitches, he misses some calls, so what? We need [Harper] out there. “We need him in right field. I don’t care how bad he is, I need him right field, I need him at the plate, and he wasn’t there.”
After that loss, Phils manager Gabe Kapler told reporters that Game 2 was an important contest for his ballclub, but clearly, the Phillies never got the message as they suffered a humiliating 9-0 shutout loss to the Mets on Tuesday. Now, Philadelphia has been outscored 18-2 in their last three games and they’ll have the look of a desperate team in this one.
Philadelphia will hand the ball to right-hander Vince Velasquez in this contest and that looks like a good thing with the hurler not allowing more than two earned runs in all three of his starts this season. Velasquez limited Colorado to two earned runs on seven hits in 5.2 innings of a 4-3 loss the last time out. He’s 1-4 with a 4.58 ERA and 37 strikeouts against the Mets in his career.
- Runs/G: 5.09
- Hits /G: 8.65
- Walks /G: 4.61
- Strike Outs /G: 9.13
- Runs/G: 5.13
- Hits /G: 9.65
- Walks /G: 3.43
- Strike Outs /G: 8.96
Why Bet On New York
The Mets are looking confident after smacking their NL East rivals senseless in the first two games of this series by the combined score of 14-1. On Tuesday, veteran first baseman Todd Frazier hit a monstrous grand slam while starting pitcher Zack Wheeler had a home run, a double and three RBIs. Wilson Ramos added an RBI in the blowout win while Wheeler limited the Phils to just five hits while striking out 11.
For the finale of this three-game set, the Mets will hand the ball to southpaw starter Jason Vargas after he limited St. Louis to one run on three hits in 4.0 innings of a 5-4 win on Friday after recording just one out in a pitiful, four-inning performance against Atlanta just prior to that. The good news is that Vargas, has gone 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA in five career appearances against Philadelphia.
“It had been 17 days since he had thrown 65 pitches, so the pitch count really got to him,” Mets manager Mickey Callaway said of the 36-year-old. “Seventy-five pitches and he was done. He was kind of spent.”
- Runs/G: 5.57
- Hits /G: 9.22
- Walks /G: 3.96
- Strike Outs /G: 9.48
- Runs/G: 5.83
- Hits /G: 9.04
- Walks /G: 3.87
- Strike Outs /G: 9.52
Phillies vs Mets MLB Betting Trends
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 7 games.
- Philadelphia are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games.
- Philadelphia are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games on the road.
- The total has gone OVER in 14 of NY Mets’ last 20 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Mets’ last 6 games at home.
- NY Mets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia.
Expert Analysis and Prediction
I know Vince Velasquez has been throwing the ball well all season long with New York’s Jason Vargas has been wildly inconsistent, but the handwriting’s on the wall for me when it comes to this NL East matchup and it’s not spelling anything good for Philadelphia.
The Phillies are an awful 24-64 in their last 88 road games against a team with a winning home record. Not only that, but the Phillies have gone 1-6 in their last 7 road games against a left-handed starter and an abysmal 8-21 in Vince Velasquez’s last 29 road starts. Conversely, the Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record, a robust 11-5 in their last 16 home games overall and a nearly unblemished 6-1 in Jason Vargas’ last 7 starts against their NL East division rivals.
I’m going with New York to complete the series sweep and you should too!
Pick: NY Mets 4 Philadelphia 3