Even though we have played a fairly decent portion of the MLB season, it is still too early to declare a series as being critical or a must win for one of the teams involved. No-one is going to fall out of a playoff race in the middle of June, as there is still too much that can happen over the next few months that can change things dramatically. Still, there are some series, even at this point in the season, where one team really has an opportunity to plant the seeds of doubt in the heads of their rivals.
We have a series just like that going on this weekend, as the Philadelphia Phillies head into Atlanta to face the Braves in the same week that they surrendered the division lead to their opponent. It’s still tight at the top there and it could become tighter still if the Phillies win this series. That said, Atlanta now also has an opportunity to open up an even bigger lead with a solid showing. The Braves are favored by 1 ½ on Friday, with the run total set at 9 ½.
Phillies vs Braves MLB Week 11 Betting Odds & Game Analysis
- When: Friday, June 14 at 7:20 PM EST
- Where: SunTrust Park, Atlanta
- Starting Pitchers: Pivetta vs. Fried
- TV: MLB Extra Innings
- Radio: 680 The Fan
- Live Stream: MLB.tv
- MLB Week 11 Betting Odds: Atlanta Braves -145 (Total 9.5)
Why bet on the Philadelphia Phillies?
The Phillies have not really been playing terrible ball of late, they have just seen the consistency that took them to the top of the NL East fail them a little. They come into this series having gone 5-5 in their last 10 games, taking them to 38-30 on the season and a game and a half back of the Braves at the top of the division. What they will be looking to do here is the same as they did to the Braves in their only other series this season, which was to deliver the sweep.
That 3-game sweep came at a time when the Braves were not playing well, plus it also came on home field. Philly is below .500 at 15-16 on the road this season, although they have been decent as a road dog, going 10-7 ATS. They will have Nick Pivetta (4-1, 4.93 ERA) on the mound on Friday.
- Runs: 4.87
- Hits: 8.22
- Walks: 3.68
- Strike Outs: 8.54
- Runs: 4.57
- Hits: 8.87
- Walks: 3.46
- Strike Outs: 8.53
Why bet on the Atlanta Braves?
The Atlanta Braves come into this series wearing the label of the hottest team in baseball. They have now won 7 games in a row, which includes back to back series sweeps against the Miami Marlins and the Pittsburgh Pirates. What should perhaps be the most alarming for anyone about to face this team is that their bats appear to have come to life in a big way. Over the course of that 7-game win streak, the Braves hammered home a total of 49 runs.
They are going to be very tough to beat for as long as that trend continues. With the 4-game sweep of the Pirates, Atlanta is now 20-15 SU at home, although they have not been a good ATS bet as a home favorite, going 13-18. They will have Max Fried (7-3, 3.75 ERA) on the mound here.
- Runs: 5.17
- Hits: 9.00
- Walks: 3.70
- Strike Outs: 8.51
- Runs: 4.81
- Hits: 8.52
- Walks: 3.74
- Strike Outs: 8.68
Phillies vs Braves MLB Week 11 Betting Trends
- Phillies are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games against an opponent in the National League
- Braves are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of Atlanta’s last 8 games at home
- Phillies are 16-29 against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons
- Braves are 131-103 against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons
- Pivetta is 4-1 when starting against Atlanta with an ERA of 3.21 and a WHIP of 1.238
Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction for Phillies vs Braves
This is a very good pitching match-up that we have ahead of us on Friday, which could help keep the total UNDER, although given how the Braves have been scoring, that could be a dodgy bet. I am taking Atlanta to win and cover.
Score: Philadelphia Phillies 3 – Atlanta Braves 5