Phillies vs Mets MLB Lines & Expert Pick for Friday Night.

Phillies vs Mets MLB Lines & Expert Pick for Friday Night

Written by on July 5, 2019

Could this be the beginning of the end for NY Mets manager Mickey Callaway? It’s possible the team fires him during the upcoming All-Star break. New York opens a three-game home series against the NL East rival Philadelphia Phillies on Friday, with the Mets favored on the MLB Lines behind 2018 NL Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom.

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Why Bet on Philadelphia?

Thanks to the Phillies’ poor performance in June, they now have a lot of ground to cover if they have any chance of making the playoffs.

Bryce Harper went 1-for-3 and cracked a solo home run in a loss to the Braves on Wednesday. His shot off Bryse Wilson was the 200th dinger and 1000th hit of Harper’s career. Never before had a player in major league history reached a milestone hit and homer with one swing. He is 1 of 10 players with 1,000+ hits & 200+ HR since the start of 2012.

Harper isn’t an All-Star this year, however. With as much talent as the Phillies have, they should be a top-10 offense in baseball but, instead, they are in the middle of the pack. They are 16th in runs scored, 20th in home runs, 19th in wOBA at .316, and 19th in wRC+.

Next, to the team’s offense, the inconsistency of the starting rotation is the Phillies’ biggest flaw. In addition, Phillies relievers have a 6.70 ERA since June 1. Clearly, the Phils need to add some quality pitching before the July 31 trade deadline if they are going to stay in this thing.

Vince Velasquez has been named the starting pitcher for Friday’s game against the Mets. It was initially reported that Velasquez would work out of the bullpen until the All-Star break, but skipper Gabe Kapler changed his mind on the matter. Velasquez was tagged for four runs over 4 1/3 innings in a loss to the Marlins last Friday. Velasquez struck out six and walked a pair. He gave up six hits, including a two-run homer to Brian Anderson in the third. While this wasn’t a good night on the mound, he hit his first career homer to provide the only offense of the night for Philadelphia. The Phillies pushed Velasquez back into the rotation out of necessity.

The Phillies are giving Velasquez an opportunity to be the team’s No. 5 starter, but he has a 6.94 ERA in three starts since he rejoined the rotation from the bullpen. The Phillies are looking for pitching help before the July 31 Trade Deadline.

Philadelphia is 7-3 vs. the Mets this year.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 4.85
  • Hits: 8.24
  • Walks: 3.72
  • Strike Outs: 8.56
Defense
  • Runs: 4.93
  • Hits: 9.14
  • Walks: 3.34
  • Strike Outs: 8.43

Why Bet on NY Mets?

New York was oddly off on July 4, which is usually when every team in the majors plays. The Mets had a two-game winning streak snapped in a 5-1 home loss to the Yankees on Wednesday. Rookie sensation Pete Alonso went 2-for-4 with a double in the loss. He ranks second in the majors with 28 home runs and will compete in Monday’s Home Run Derby.

With the team struggling, veteran third baseman Todd Frazier could be on the move as he’s on an expiring contract. Since May 14, Frazier is slashing .290/.382/.506 with a 10.8% walk rate, 15.1% strikeout rate, .377 weighted on-base average and 139 wRC+ (100 is an average hitter).

The Mets have memories of a recent series in Philly, where they were swept in four games. But it was no rout as the Mets led in every one of those games. Now the struggling Mets have a chance to erase those memories with victories this weekend.

Phillies vs Mets should be an easy victory for New York.

“It’s very important,” All-Star Jeff McNeil said. “We’ve got to play well this weekend. Big division opponent. Whenever you play in the division, they’re huge games. So hopefully have a really good weekend here and go into the break and come back and keep playing well.”

McNeil leads the major leagues with a .349 batting average. He is seeking to become the second Mets player to lead the National League in batting average at the All-Star break. McNeil is the first player to lead the major leagues in batting average in July or later in his rookie or sophomore season since Ichiro Suzuki led through July 25, 2002, his second season.

Reigning Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom (4-7) took the loss last Friday, giving up three runs on six hits and two walks over six innings while striking out seven as the Mets were downed 6-2 by Atlanta. The right-hander fired 71 of 107 pitches for strikes, but deGrom once again didn’t get enough run support to turn his 11th quality start of the season into a win. He’ll take a 3.32 ERA and 128:22 K:BB through 103 innings into his next outing. DeGrom earned his third career All-Star nod on the strength what he’s done since May 1: a 2.81 ERA in 12 starts, with 85 strikeouts in 77 innings.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 4.70
  • Hits: 8.82
  • Walks: 3.23
  • Strike Outs: 8.91
Defense
  • Runs: 5.13
  • Hits: 8.93
  • Walks: 3.32
  • Strike Outs: 9.17

Phillies vs Mets MLB Betting Trends

  • Under is 7-3-2 in the last 12 meetings in New York
  • Phillies are 1-5 in Velasquez’s last 6 starts vs. Mets
  • Phillies are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia’s last 11 games played on a Friday
  • Mets are 6-1 in deGrom’s last 7 home starts vs. Phillies
  • Mets are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games this season
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets’ last 5 games played in July

Expert Final Score Prediction for Phillies vs Mets

Philadelphia Phillies 2 – New York Mets 5

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