Phillies vs Mets MLB Week 4 Odds, Preview, and Pick

Phillies vs Mets MLB Week 4 Odds, Preview, and Pick

Written by on April 22, 2019

The Philadelphia Phillies take on the New York Mets in a battle between division leaders on Monday, April 22. The Phillies have been everything MLB fans expected after signing Bryce Harper while the New York Mets are somewhat of a surprise. The Mets are favored to win on April 22, though. Will the home team get it done? Check out MLB betting odds, analysis, and a free pick for Phillies-Mets.

Phillies vs Mets MLB Week 4 Odds, Preview, and Pick

  • When: Monday, April 22 at 7:10pm ET
  • Where: Citi Field, New York, NY
  • TV: ESPN
  • Moneyline Odds: Mets -108 (total 7.5)

Why Philadelphia Phillies are a good bet at -101

33-year-old Phillies’ starter Jake Arrieta continues to defy logic. Arrieta’s known for working out a day or two before he must pitch. Somehow, blowing out his muscles that way hasn’t affected his control.

Arrieta has a 2.25 ERA to go along with a 3-1 record and a 1.11 WHIP. He threw 8 innings versus the Mets on April 17 and yielded only 2 earned runs off 6 hits. The Phillies won 3-2. If Arrieta throws like that on Monday night, the Phillies will win again.

Team Statistics

  • Runs/G: 5.75
  • BA: .261
  • OPS: .800
  • HR: 29
  • SB: 5
  • ERA: 4.46
  • WHIP: 1.38
  • KS: 180
  • Quality Starts: 8
  • Errors: 13

Why New York Mets are a good bet at -108

The Mets are favored to win on April 22, though. Will the home team get it done?

Starter Steven Matz had been pitching well. In his season debut on April 1, he allowed only a single earned run from 6 hits. In his second start, he allowed 0 runs off 2 hits in 5 innings, and in his third start he allowed 2 earned runs off 4 hits in 6 innings.

Although he was awful versus the Phillies in his last start, he’s shown he can pitch a full 5 to 6 innings under control. If Matz is under control, he should throw well versus the Phillies.

Team Statistics

  • Runs/G: 5.50
  • BA: .263
  • OPS: .776
  • HR: 24
  • SB: 10
  • ERA: 5.61
  • WHIP: 1.56
  • KS: 190
  • Quality Starts: 6
  • Errors: 14

MLB Baseball Betting Trends for Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets

  • Phillies are 1-5 in their last 6 road games versus a left-handed starter
  • Phillies are 2-5 in Arrieta’s last 7 road starts
  • Phillies are 1-5 in Arrieta’s last 6 road starts versus a team with a winning record
  • Mets are 1-4 in their last 5 versus the National League East
  • Mets are 5-1 in Matz’s last 6 starts
  • Mets are 8-0 in Matz’s last 8 starts following a team loss in their last 8 games

Phillies vs Mets Final MLB Betting Analysis

The last game Steven Matz had against the Philadelphia Phillies was downright atrocious. He didn’t get a single out before Mets manager Mickey Callaway pulled him. Matz allowed 6 earned runs off 4 hits after giving up 2 earned runs. He also walked a batter.

Philadelphia should be confident heading into this matchup. However, they don’t respond when Arrieta’s on the mound in road games. They’ve also had trouble versus left-handers save for Matz in their past 6 on the road. The New York Mets and Steven Matz bounce back with a big win in this matchup.

MLB Free Pick: Mets -108

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