Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox MLB

The AL East-leading Boston Red Sox return home from a West Coast trip Friday to open a weekend series against the Philadelphia Phillies, who will add the designated hitter. The Sox opened as solid favorites on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Phillies at Red Sox MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Friday, 7:10 PM ET
Where: Fenway Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Vince Velasquez/Garrett Richards
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: ESPN+; https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Red Sox -130, Phillies +120 (total 10.5)

Why Bet on Philadelphia?

The Phillies finished a series at the Cubs on Thursday and this will mark only the 6th time in the last 100 years that a major league team has played consecutive series at Wrigley Field and Fenway Park (or vice versa). It last happened in April 2017 when the Pirates did it. Philadelphia’s 5.93 runs per game on the road since June lead the National League.

Bryce Harper, whom the Red Sox wanted to sign a few years ago when he hit free agency, was not named an All-Star and then conveniently said he would have skipped it even if named to the NL team. Harper got picked to play in the All-Star Game in six of his first seven major-league seasons.

It has been a difficult season for Harper has injuries have caused him to miss 21 games. He got off to a fast start with a .329 average, six home runs and a 1.083 OPS through 23 games before getting hit in the face by a 97-mph fastball April 28 in St. Louis. Since then, he has been quieter.

It’s Vince Velasquez (3-3) on the mound here. Velasquez was knocked around for five runs over six innings on Sunday in a loss to the Padres. Velasquez simply get out Manny Machado, who tagged him for a two-run homer in the opening frame, and a three-run blast in the third inning. He finished with four strikeouts and also issued three walks.

Velasquez had held the Marlins scoreless in his last start, but he’s now allowed at least two earned runs in six of his last seven appearances. During that time, he’s posted a 6.21 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 33.1 innings. Overall, he has a 4.50 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 75/36 K/BB ratio across 70 innings (13 starts).

Why Bet on Boston?

The Red Sox completed a 3-3 trip to Oakland and Anaheim with a 5-4 loss to the Angels on Wednesday before getting Thursday off. Xander Bogaerts had three hits and drove in a run for the Red Sox, who lost for just the third time in 13 games. Boston hadn’t lost back-to-back games since June 24.

Bogaerts will be headed to the All-Star Game as for the year, he’s slashing .323/.385/.535 with 13 home runs, 49 RBI, 54 runs scored, five stolen bases and 27 doubles through 348 plate appearances. He’s racked up 100 hits in 82 games.

Each of the Red Sox’s last 6 games (and 8 of their last 10) has been decided by 1 or 2 runs. The Sox are an MLB-leading 27-15 in games decided by 1 or 2 runs. The Sox are 8-3 in their last 11 one-run games. The Sox are 11-16 against AL West teams and 43-18 against all others.

It’s Garrett Richards on the mound here. Richards (4-5, 4.88 ERA) gave up two runs in five-plus innings on Saturday in a no-decision against the Athletics. Richards gave up an RBI triple to Seth Brown in the second, and then settled by allowing just one more run after he was pulled in the sixth. The start marked the first time since June 1 that Richards allowed fewer than three earned runs in a game. He exited with a one-run lead and a chance to earn a win for the first time since mid-May, but Oakland ultimately came back to pull out the win.

It was a nice bounce-back for the right-hander after a June ERA of 7.16 over 27.2 innings. Richards is also altering his pitch mix, adding what he referred to as a split/changeup.

Richards has thrown 5.0+ innings in each of his last 2 starts, and in 11 of his last 13. He is 3-2 with a 3.92 ERA in 11 road starts (25 ER/57.1 IP), compared to 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA in 6 home outings (22 ER/29.1 IP).

Game Trends

Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Phillies are 4-9 in their last 13 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Phillies are 4-10 in their last 14 interleague games.
Phillies are 4-10 in their last 14 vs. American League East.
Red Sox are 8-0 in their last 8 home games.
Red Sox are 10-1 in their last 11 Friday games.
Phillies are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Boston.