Rays vs Twins MLB Odds, Preview & Prediction.

Rays vs Twins MLB Odds, Preview & Prediction

Written by on June 27, 2019

It’s the final meeting of the season between the Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins on Thursday afternoon, but it’s possible the clubs could see each other again in October. There’s no opening line on the MLB odds because those darn Rays once again aren’t saying who their “opener” will be.

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Why Bet on Tampa Bay?

The Rays are on pace for the best single-season road record in club history, ahead of their 47-34 (.580) mark in 2010. Their 3.07 ERA (348.1-IP, 119-ER) in road games leads the majors.

Rays reliever Diego Castillo has been diagnosed with a right shoulder impingement and is expected to be sidelined for about two weeks. Emilio Pagan is the favorite for saves in the Rays’ bullpen until Jose Alvarado returns from the restricted list. Starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow will be shut down for the next three weeks after an MRI revealed right flexor inflammation. The right-hander has been sidelined since mid-May with what was simply called a forearm strain at the time. Third baseman Daniel Robertson will be sidelined for 4-6 weeks after having arthroscopic surgery to remove a loose body from his right knee. He was not hitting whatsoever so not a huge loss.

We think Ryne Stanek (0-1) will serve as Tampa Bay’s “opener” in this one. He has done that mostly this season and did in Sunday’s win over the Athletics, allowing an unearned run on a hit and two walks while also recording three strikeouts over an inning-plus. Stanek had a rather unusual outing, with the right-hander getting an unearned run tacked onto his ledger following his exit after facing one batter in the bottom of the second inning. Stanek did manage multiple strikeouts for the first time in the last five appearances, extending what has been a solid June overall.

The 27-year-old boasts a 1.59 ERA and 13 strikeouts across 11.1 innings during the month. He owns a 2.47 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 47/18 K/BB ratio across 33 appearances (22 starts) this season overall.

Rays pitchers generate swings-and-misses on 13.0 pct. of their pitches, the highest rate in the majors. The Rays have yielded 3 runs or fewer 46 times (59.0 pct.), 2 runs or fewer 33 times (42.3 pct.) and 1 run or fewer 22 times (28.2 pct.). All of these are the most in the majors.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 2.22
  • Hits: 4.31
  • Walks: 1.59
  • Strike Outs: 4.52
Defense
  • Runs: 1.75
  • Hits: 3.64
  • Walks: 1.42
  • Strike Outs: 4.49

Why Bet on Minnesota?

Starting center fielder Byron Buxton (wrist) took some more swings Tuesday in what was “the best session that he’s had so far,” per Twins manager Rocco Baldelli. “There are a few spots in the zone where he still feels the deep bruise, and it’s still maybe bothering him a little bit,” Baldelli said. “But I think he’s getting close to the point where he can go out there and face some live pitching.” Buxton was slated to take some more swings Wednesday and could be cleared for a rehab assignment.

Utility-man supreme Marwin Gonzalez ran at 70 percent effort on Tuesday. It was the first time he’s done any running since he strained his right hamstring a week ago, as he had been limited to exercise and rehab.

“It felt good. I didn’t feel anything. I feel 100 percent taking ground balls. The running, I feel a little bit tight still, but nothing bad,” Gonzalez said. “Even though I was a little bit tight, it was 100 percent better than how it was in my last two games.”

Rays vs Twins should be a close victory for Minnesota.

As of Wednesday, Jorge Polanco has reached base safely in a career-high 37 straight games dating back to May 13, passing Chuck Knoblauch and Tony Oliva for the fifth-longest streak in Twins history. During the streak, he is hitting .327 (52-for-159) with a .375 on-base percentage, and it is the longest hitting streak in Major Leagues this season. The four Twins with longer streaks: Paul Molitor (38) from August 13- Sept. 22, 1996, Harmon Killebrew (40) from May 20-June 26, 1967, Bob Allison (42) from July 16-August 29, 1961 and Joe Mauer (43) from August 7-Sept. 24, 2015.

Twins lefty Martin Perez (7-3) didn’t factor into the decision in Friday’s 8-7 win over the Royals, giving up six runs (four earned) on five hits and three walks over five innings while striking out two. Perez had two rough innings against the Royals last Friday. He allowed three runs (one earned) in the first and three in the fifth. A late rally by Minnesota took the southpaw off the hook for his fourth loss of the year, but this was still the fifth straight start in which Perez was tagged for at least four runs, a stretch during which he has a 7.50 ERA and 20:11 K:BB over 24 innings.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 2.76
  • Hits: 4.58
  • Walks: 1.47
  • Strike Outs: 3.76

Defense

  • Runs: 2.08
  • Hits: 4.04
  • Walks: 1.35
  • Strike Outs: 4.10

Rays vs Twins MLB Betting Trends

  • Rays are 3-13 in their last 16 during game 3 of a series
  • Twins are 6-2 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record
  • Over is 6-0 in Perez’s last 6 starts overall
  • Rays are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay’s last 7 games against an opponent in the American League
  • Twins are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

Expert Final Score Prediction for Rays vs Twins

Tampa Bay Rays 5 – Minnesota Twins 6

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