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It’s a very intriguing interleague series opener on Friday night between teams chasing wild-card spots as the Arizona Diamondbacks visit the Boston Red Sox, who are short favorites on the MLB odds even though the Sox have been much better on the road than at home in 2024.

Arizona at Boston: MLB Expert Analysis

Opening MLB Lines Subject to Change: Red Sox -125, Diamondbacks +106 (total 10)
Score Prediction: Red Sox 5, Diamondbacks 4

Arizona Diamondbacks +106

This is Arizona’s first trip to Boston since 2016. The Diamondbacks and Red Sox have split six games since 2019. The Snakes and Padres are neck-and-neck for the top NL wild-card spot, so Arizona should get in – just a matter of which of those three spots. The Snakes come off a three-game sweep over the Marlins in Miami, despite having several key players on injured reserve.

Luis Guillorme

In Wednesday’s 10-8 comeback win, recently signed infielder Luis Guillorme started at second base and went 1-for-5 with a stolen base in his team debut. Outfielder Jake McCarthy went 1-for-5 with a home run and two RBI. It was the second time in three games that he went deep, and McCarthy has tied his career-high mark of eight homers in a season. With Alek Thomas (oblique) recently optioned to the minors, McCarthy should have a clear path to an everyday role. McCarthy is slashing an impressive .304/.376/.457 on the season, with 45 RBI and 18 stolen bases.

Injuries to Consider

Current Arizona starters on the IL are catcher Gabriel Moreno, first baseman Christian Walker and second baseman and NL MVP candidate Ketel Marte, who just landed there this week with an ankle injury – that’s why the team signed Guillorme. Whether Marte needs to miss more than the 10-day minimum or not remains to be seen.

Marte has 30 home runs this year and a 10.4% walk rate, while limiting his strikeouts to a 17.8% clip. His .298/.370/.560 batting line translates to a 152 wRC+, which means he’s been 52% better than league average at the plate. Only 10 qualified major-leaguers have a better mark than that this year. He’s also stolen six bases and received strong grades for his defense. Only six players have more wins above replacement than his 5.4 this year, per FanGraphs.

Moreno’s injury has opened up time for rookie catcher Adrian Del Castillo, whose 14 RBI in his first nine games tied for the second-most in MLB history since RBI became an official state in 1920. Del Castillo had a chance to match the mark of 15 RBI in his first 10 games but failed to drive in a run Wednesday despite two hits.

The D-backs have won 7 of their last 8 road series from July 2-Aug. 20, and gone 16-8 in the span. Also since July 2, the Snakes rank in MLB’s top 3 in slugging, homers, RBI, runs and OPS. Arizona’s 33 homers since Aug. 1 are also the most in the Show.

Ryne Nelson on the Hill

It’s righty Nelson on the mound Friday. Nelson (8-6, 4.35 ERA) pitched 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball last Friday against the Rays. Nelson left with a one-run lead, but that was blown by reliever Ryan Thompson in the eighth. It’s the second straight time the Arizona pen has cost Nelson a win. He has a 2.72 ERA in his last nine outings and the Diamondbacks have gone 7-2 in those games, but he has just three wins to show for the excellent stretch.

Though Manager Lovullo has previously stated that Arizona eventually plans to condense to a five-man rotation, Nelson has made it tough on the Diamondbacks to demote him to the bullpen, even though that was the initial plan. This will be Nelson’s first career look at Boston.

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Updated Odds provided by MyBookie Sportsbook

Boston Red Sox -125

Boston has some work to do as it sits 3.5 games out of the final AL wild-card spot. The Sox do enter off impressive back-to-back wins in Houston to take two of three to start this week. All-Star Jaren Duran went 1-for-2 with two walks, a double, a run scored and a stolen base in Wednesday’s 4-1 win. Duran doubled to lead off the game and scored on a single. He later stole his 32nd base, tying teammate David Hamilton for the team lead. Duran finished off the team’s road trip to Baltimore and Houston with a .345/.424/.759 line, three home runs, six RBI, three steals and eight runs scored over seven games.

Rafael Devers

All-Star third baseman, Devers, is enjoying the best offensive campaign of a very impressive career to this point — his .951 OPS would be a career-best if the season ended today. Devers slumped in the first half of this month, but he has been better recently, batting .318 with two doubles and two homers in five games before an 0-for-4 night on Wednesday. Devers is sitting on 199 career home runs. As soon as Friday, he can become the 11th player ever to hit 200 HR with the Red Sox, but the 1st to-do so before turning 28 years old. Devers also would be the 31st player in MLB history to reach 200 career HR at the age of 27 or younger, most recently Bryce Harper and Manny Machado in 2020.

Since the start of June, Boston has slashed .277/.342/.473/.815, while averaging 5.57 runs scored and 9.91 hits per game. The Red Sox lead MLB during that span in AVG, SLG, hits, and XBH, while leading the AL in OBP, OPS, and runs. The Sox are 38-30 since the start of June, the AL’s 2nd-best record in that span.

Brayan Bello on the Mound

It’s righty Bello on the hill here. Bello (11-5, 4.80 ERA) earned the win over Baltimore last Saturday, allowing one run on two hits and three walks while striking out six batters over six innings. Bello tossed five scoreless frames before serving up a game-tying solo homer to Gunnar Henderson in the sixth inning. That was the hurler’s final frame, but Boston scored in the top of the seventh to move him in line for the victory.

Bello has been much better since the All-Star break, with a 3.44 ERA in his six starts. Additionally, he’s recorded a 1.235 WHIP and 35 strikeouts over 34 innings pitched, marking improvements in both categories from the first three months of the season (1.472 WHIP, 64 strikeouts in 71 1/3 innings).

Bello believes that his improved pitching since the All-Star break is due to his command in attacking the strike zone. Yet, he has a lower strike percentage since the break than he did in the first three months of the season. Sixty-three of Bello’s pitches before the end of June went for a strike, while 62 percent of his pitches since the break have been a strike.

This will be Bello’s first career outing vs. Arizona.

Diamondbacks at Red Sox Info

When: Friday, 7:10 PM ET
Where: Fenway Park
Pitchers (away/home): Ryne Nelson/Brayan Bello
TV: MLB Extra Innings, MLB Network
Stream/game day audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/ ^

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