Reds vs Cubs MLB Odds, Preview & Expert Pick.

Reds vs Cubs MLB Odds, Preview & Expert Pick

Written by on July 16, 2019

The Chicago Cubs are a bit thin in their rotation right now with Cole Hamels dealing with an injury so they will give a chance to journeyman Alec Mills on Tuesday against the Cincinnati Reds. Despite Mills’ fairly lousy MLB career record, the Cubs are favored on the MLB Odds.

How to Bet Reds vs Cubs MLB Odds & Game Info

  • When: Tuesday, 2:20 PM ET
  • Where: Wrigley Field
  • Probable pitchers (away/home): Anthony DeSclafani/Alec Mills
  • TV: MLB Extra Innings
  • Live Stream: MLB.tv
  • Radio: WGN Sports
  • MLB Odds: Chicago Cubs -135

Why Bet on Cincinnati?

Joey Votto ranks third among all active players with 34 HR and 114 RBI against the Cubs, trailing in both categories only Albert Pujols (57-146) and Ryan Braun (38-133). Monitor the status of Reds outfielder Jesse Winkler. Winker was pulled from Sunday’s game against the Rockies due to an apparent oblique injury. Winker grimaced and grabbed at his side after swinging and missing at the plate. He’s likely headed to the injured list.

Why do the Reds keep starting Jose Iglesias at shortstop? FanGraphs’ fWAR leaderboard among starting shortstops shows there are 26 qualified players at the position this season and only two ranks lower than Iglesias’ 0.4. Those two are Milwaukee’s Orlando Arcia and Brandon Crawford of San Francisco. Iglesias has slumped to just a .267/.296/.353 mark dating back to May 7. The Reds have someone ready to plug in there in Jose Peraza. Since May 31, he’s hit an impressive .312/.337/.455. That is after he posted a punchless .199/.260/.321 line in 169 PA to begin the year.

It’s Anthony DeSclafani (5-4) on the mound. DeSclafani gave up two runs on seven hits and two walks over six innings during his last start, a 7-2 loss to the Indians. He struck out six and did not factor in the decision. Francisco Lindor provided Cleveland’s only offense against DeSclafani, as he hit a pair of solo home runs to right field. The 29-year-old finished the first half on a strong note Saturday and has a 4.26 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 90:26 K:BB through 86.2 innings.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 4.42
  • Hits: 8.03
  • Walks: 2.95
  • Strike Outs: 8.74

Defense

  • Runs: 4.02
  • Hits: 7.91
  • Walks: 3.31
  • Strike Outs: 9.65

Why Bet on Chicago?

All-Star catcher Willson Contreras remained out of the Cubs’ starting lineup on Monday night against the Reds. Contreras has some soreness in the arch of his right foot and is considered day-to-day. Victor Caratini will start at catcher as long as Contreras is out. Conteras is mashing to the tune of a .286/.382/.565 batting line with 19 home runs and 55 RBIs this season. Contreras is 10th in the N.L. and leads all qualifying catchers with a .382 on-base percentage this season. He also paces all qualifying catchers with a .565 slugging mark and a .947 OPS.

Reds vs Cubs is going to be a close one.

Alec Mills gets his first start of 2019 in place of the injured Cole Hamels. Mills has yet to pitch in the big leagues this year, but he was solid at times in spot starts for the Cubs in 2018. He was 0-1 with a 4.00 ERA in seven appearances last season. He has a 5.48 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with 27 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings (two starts) in his big league career.

Mills had a mediocre 4.73 ERA in 80 innings for Triple-A Iowa this season. Though Mills hasn’t looked great at Triple-A Iowa, he’s capable of missing a bat or three and his 6-2 record is an indication that he’s at least kept his team in most games. He’s given up at least four earned in four of his last 10 starts, but he’s allowed two or fewer in five more. Mainly a fastball/sinker/change guy, Mills mixes in a slider and curve to change eye level and get swinging strikes.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 5.11
  • Hits: 8.60
  • Walks: 3.88
  • Strike Outs: 9.06

Defense

  • Runs: 4.43
  • Hits: 8.37
  • Walks: 3.36
  • Strike Outs: 8.50

Reds vs Cubs MLB Betting Trends

  • Reds are 5-2 in DeSclafani’s last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record
  • Cubs are 0-4 in their last 4 Tuesday games
  • Over is 6-2 in DeSclafani’s last 8 starts vs. National League Central
  • Reds are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 7 games against an opponent in the National League
  • Cubs are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs’ last 6 games

Expert Final Score Prediction for Reds vs Cubs

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