It’s a potential American League playoff preview on Thursday to open a series as the Kansas City Royals, who should either win the AL Central or get a wild-card spot, visit the AL West-leading Houston Astros, who are solid favorites on the MLB odds behind Hunter Brown.
Kansas City at Houston: 2024 MLB Expert Analysis
| Opening MLB Lines Subject to Change: Astros -154, Royals +125 (total 8) Expert Prediction: Astros 5, Royals 3 |
Kansas City Royals +125
Kansas City is 20-21-2 in series play, including wins in three of the last four. It just took three of four at Cleveland to open this week and tied the Guardians for the AL Central lead after Tuesday’s win but blew a late lead Wednesday in a loss to fall a game back again.
The Royals were a 100-loss team in 2023, but are on pace for about 91 wins this year. That would set an MLB record for wins by a team following a 100-loss season. The current standard (since 1900) is shared by the 1967 Cubs and 1989 Orioles, who won 87 games following 103 and 107-loss seasons, respectively.
Should KC get to 91 wins, that would mark 35 more than they had last season (56), which would fall 1 shy of the all-time record set by the 1903 New York Giants, who went 84-55 after going 48-88 in 1902, for a 36-win improvement. The Royals are attempting to become the third team ever to make the postseason after a 100-loss season, following the 2017 Twins and 2020 Marlins, who qualified as Wild Card teams. Kansas City can become the first team in MLB to win its division after a 100-loss season.
Michael Lorenzen
However, KC took a bit of a hit when starting pitcher, a trade acquisition from Texas, was placed on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with a strained left hamstring. Lorenzen suffered the injury during Tuesday’s game versus the Guardians while covering first base. He will be eligible to return in mid-September, but a firm timeline for his recovery won’t be known until the results of his MRI become available. Alec Marsh is likely to slide into Lorenzen’s rotation spot, and that’s a major downgrade.
Bobby Witt Jr.
The superstar shortstop, who probably finishes second in the AL MVP voting behind the Yankees’ Aaron Judge, was hit by a pitch in the hand Tuesday and needed X-rays, but those were negative and Witt was in Wednesday’s lineup in Cleveland. With Witt, Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino, the Royals are the only team in the majors to have three players with at least 90 RBIs. It’s only the fifth time in franchise history that KC has three such players. Only twice has it had a trio of players to reach 100 RBIs, in 1999 and 2000. Perez is tied with Aaron Judge for the Major League lead with 28 go-ahead RBIs, and Pasquantino is 3rd with 26. Witt Jr. leads MLB in hits, batting average and runs.
Brady Singer on the Hill
It’s righty on the mound Thursday. Singer (9-9) allowed five runs on 11 hits and struck out five without walking a batter over five-plus innings, taking the loss versus the Phillies on Saturday. Singer was decent through five innings, but he was on the hook for a J.T. Realmuto three-run home run in the sixth.
Singer has now allowed at least four runs in three of his last four starts, and his ERA is 6.23 despite 26 strikeouts in 26 2/3 innings in that time. Since the All-Star break, Singer has three scoreless outings, but also has given up three or more runs in his other four starts in that span. Overall, he has a 3.38 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 14 strikeouts 146.2 innings over 26 starts.
Singer’s 616 career strikeouts are 2 shy of Charlie Leibrandt (618) for 13th on the club’s all-time strikeout list and are the most by a Royal over 121 career games. He is 1-2 with 4.57 ERA (11 ER in 21.2 IP) in 4 career starts vs. the Astros and earned the win after throwing 5.0 innings of 1-run ball against them on April 11. In 12 starts on the road this season, Singer is 3-4 with a 4.04 ERA (28 ER in 62.1 IP), and 2 of his last 3 road outings since July 31 have been quality starts.
^Houston Astros -154
All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker, out since June with a lower leg injury, has begun sprinting and is close to running the bases. That is viewed as Tucker’s final checkpoint before being sent out on a rehab assignment, and he could take that step soon after being cleared to sprint. It’s unclear how many rehab games Tucker will require, but he and the Astros have been tentatively aiming for an early-September return.
"Hopefully, we'll get [Kyle Tucker] back sometime early September. Hopefully, the first week."
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) August 23, 2024
Astros GM Dana Brown joins @MLBNow to give an update on star outfielder Kyle Tucker as he rehabs from a shin injury. pic.twitter.com/giz52SdLDy
Jason Heyward
Earlier this week, the Astros added outfield help in signing former Gold Glover Jason Heyward after he was released by the Dodgers. The 35-year-old will likely see playing time against right-handed pitching and can also serve as a defensive substitute in the late innings. Heyward slashed .208/.289/.393 with six homers and 28 RBIs in 63 games with the Dodgers this year. Houston acquired lefty Caleb Ferguson before the trade deadline from the Yankees, and he has been terrific with a 3.18 ERA in 10 appearances. He is 4th on the club in appearances since being acquired.
Hunter Brown on the Hill
It’s righty on the mound Thursday. Brown (11-7) did not factor into the decision in last Friday’s 7-5 loss to the Orioles, allowing two runs (one earned) on three hits and two walks with six strikeouts over six innings. Brown induced just seven whiffs on 107 pitches, but he left the game with a 5-2 lead before the Orioles exploded for five runs in the eighth inning.
The 25-year-old has three quality starts in four August outings while yielding two earned runs or fewer in each. Overall, he has 14th quality starts in his last 17 outings and has dropped his season ERA down to 3.72. That’s a far cry from 9.78, where it stood at the end of May. One big change has been Brown implementing a sinker against the Mariners on May 5, specifically against right-handed hitters. It has become his most used pitch against right-handers, with a usage rate pushing almost 50% in July and August. Before implementing his sinker, right-handed hitters had a .439 batting average and a .683 slugging percentage against Brown.
He is an ugly 0-2 with a 36.82 ERA in two career appearances vs. Kansas City. On April 11 this year, Brown had one of the worst outings of any pitcher in MLB history, allowing nine runs and 11 hits in just two-thirds of an inning. He became the first pitcher in MLB history to allow 11 hits while pitching less than 1 full inning. The Royals sent 15 men to the plate in the first inning, tying a club record with 11 hits in the inning (also set in 1986 and 2006).
^Royals at Astros Info
When: Thursday, 8:10 PM ET
Where: Minute Maid Park
Pitchers (away/home): Brady Singer/Hunter Brown
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/game day audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
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