San Francisco at Arizona MLB Betting Pick & Prediction

Posted by Kenny Bell on Monday,April 3, 2017 2:21, EDT in

The San Francisco Giants thought they fixed their biggest problem area from last season, the bullpen, this winter by signing free agent Mark Melancon. He was terrible, however, in Sunday’s opener as the Giants blew three leads and lost at Arizona. The two NL West rivals go at it again on Tuesday with the Giants as slight Baseball betting favorites.

San Francisco at Arizona MLB Betting Pick & Prediction

When: Tuesday, April 4
Where: Chase Field, Phoenix
Probable pitchers (away/home): Johnny Cueto/Patrick Corbin
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream: MLB.tv
Radio: San Francisco / Arizona
Opening MLB Lines: Giants favored by TBA

Why Bet on Giants?

San Francisco lost Game 1 of this series 6-5. If there’s such a thing as a crushing opening day loss, that was it. The Giants set a dubious record last with 30 blown saves, most ever for a playoff team. That figure also led the majors. New season, new closer … and two blown saves on Sunday. They blew a lead in the eighth and then Melancon blew another lead in the ninth.

Giants ace Madison Bumgarner hit two home runs Sunday to set a major league record for the most Opening Day home runs by a pitcher. He hit homers in both of his at-bats in the loss. Bumgarner’s line-drive homer off Zack Greinke put the Giants ahead 2-0 in the fifth. Bumgarner's second solo shot, off lefty Andrew Chafin, broke a 3-all tie in the seventh. Hall of Famer Don Drysdale is the only other pitcher with multiple Opening Day home runs, but he hit one homer in two separate openers.

Bumgarner struck out 11 with no walks in seven innings. He gave up three runs on six hits and became the first Giants pitcher to go deep twice in one game since Jim Gott in 1985. Bumgarner has 4 HR in his career off players who had won a Cy Young Award at the time of his HR, which is the most by any pitcher.

Here it’s Johnny Cueto for the Giants. Concerns over the veteran’s late start to spring training are in the rear-view mirror after the All-Star posted a 1.50 ERA in his three Cactus League starts. The 31-year- old will look to repeat last year’s success when he posted a 2.79 ERA and a sparkling 4.4 K/BB over 32 starts.

He’s one of only four pitchers — Bumgarner, Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer are the others — to have managed at least three seasons of 200-plus innings with a sub-three ERA in the past four years, yet Cueto’s strikeout rate during that four-year span is 3.5 percent lower than any of the others. Cueto will be hard-pressed to equal the start he enjoyed last year, when he won 13 of his first 14 decisions. His 16 complete games since the start of 2011 are the Majors’ third-most in that span, behind Kershaw (23) and James Shields (18).

Why Bet on Diamondbacks?

Many think the Diamondbacks are a wild-card sleeper this year after imploding last season. Chris Owings singled home the winning run and the Diamondbacks scored twice with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning off new San Francisco closer Melancon for Sunday’s victory. Arizona got a double by Jeff Mathis and three singles after Melancon retired his first two batters in the ninth. A.J. Pollock singled in the tying run, and Owings dumped a base hit into right field to end it.

Pollock went 3-for- 5 with a homer and two RBIs. Pollock was limited to 12 games last season due to an elbow fracture and a September groin strain. HE put up an .865 OPS with 20 home runs, 76 RBI, 39 stolen bases, and 111 runs scored over 157 games in 2015.

RHP Jake Barrett, who could be the setup man in the bullpen, opened on the 10-day DL due to right shoulder inflammation. Barrett missed all of spring training, but he’s “progressing very, very well” of late, according to manager Torey Lovullo.

Lovullo is in his first season as D-backs’ manager. He was named the eighth manager on Nov. 4, 2016. Lovullo was the Red Sox bench coach for 4 seasons (2013-16). He also was interim manager for 48 games (28-20) at the end of 2015 while John Farrell was on medical leave.

Arizona’s 137 stolen bases in 2016 tied a club record (also: 1999), while its 81.5 stolen base pct., best in the Majors, was the second highest in franchise history. Only the 2007 team was more efficient (82.0).

The Snakes go with lefty Patrick Corbin here. He was 5-13 with a 5.15 ERA in 36 games (24 starts) in 2016. Corbin moved to the bullpen on Aug. 14 and posted a 2.70 ERA. He led all pitchers with a .313 average and a .327 OBP. His 15 hits were tied for second most with Bumgarner. Corbin has gone 2-1 with a 2.20 ERA (8 ER in 32.2 IP) in his last 7 games (5 starts) vs. the Giants and is 4-5 with a 3.46 ERA (34 ER in 88.1 IP) in 16 games (14 starts) overall. He had an impressive spring to earn a spot in the rotation.

San Francisco at Arizona Betting Pick: San Francisco Giants

Cueto is one of the NL’s top pitchers so lean Giants here.