St. Louis at Cincinnati MLB Expert Betting Pick & Match Preview

Posted by Kenny Bell on Tuesday,June 6, 2017 10:19, EDT in

The St. Louis Cardinals’ seven-game road trip didn’t start well as they were swept over the weekend at the rival Cubs. The Cards will try to change their fortunes in Cincinnati. The Reds are coming off a 3 game weekend series against the Atlanta Braves, which ended at 2-1. The Cardinals will be online MLB odds favorites for Wednesday’s Game 3.

St. Louis at Cincinnati MLB Expert Betting Pick & Match Preview

When: Wednesday, June 7, 7:10 PM ET
Where: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
Probable pitchers (away/home): Lance Lynn/Bronson Arroyo
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream: MLB.tv
Radio: St. Louis / Cincinnati
Opening MLB Lines: Cardinals favored by TBA

Why Bet On St. Louis?

Since last September 3 when the Cardinals lost to the Reds 9‐1, the two teams have alternated wins for 11 games. That is the longest such stretch in the history of the rivalry. Included in that back and forth was Cincinnati’s 2‐1 series win at St. Louis April 7‐9, the Reds’ first series victory in St. Louis since September 2015.

Third baseman Jhonny Peralta is the only player in Major League Baseball this season with at least 50 plate appearances and zero extra-base hits and runs batted in. That’s a far fall from grace for a player who at times paced the Cardinals’ lineup in 2014 and 2015. Peralta is on the last year of his contract with the Cardinals. Jedd Gyorko has a strong hold on the starting third base job, and Peralta’s role is simply a reserve infielder and pinch-hitter at this point. Kolten Wong, along with Gyorko, is one of the only Cardinals who is hitting better this year than his career numbers would indicate. So Peralta might be out of luck soon.

Wong is nearing a return from his elbow injury. He was to join Class A Peoria on Tuesday to begin a rehab assignment. The team does not expect him to need much time in the minors before rejoining the Cardinals, possibly during the week. He just has to “look good, feel good,” Manager Mike Matheny said. Lance Lynn (4-3, 2.97) is on the mound. He was charged with two runs over 5 1/3 innings Friday against the Cubs.

Lynn only deserved one of the runs, as the second one came around to score when Stephen Piscotty misjudged and/or lost a ball in the sun in right field in the sixth inning. That turned out to be the last hitter Lynn faced aside from an intentional walk. He surrendered just two hits on the day, but four walks hurt him. Lynn hasn’t recorded a win since pitching six shutout innings against Atlanta on May 5.

Why Bet On Cincinnati?

How good has Reds shortstop Zack Cozart been this season? He is now batting .344/.432/.622 with nine home runs and 33 RBI in 48 games this season. He’s among the league leaders in Wins Above Replacement and should be quite popular around the trade deadline.

The Reds, Padres and Nationals are the only teams in the Major Leagues with at least 4 players who have produced at least 10 HR each. The Reds’ quartet of Scott Schebler (16), Adam Duvall (14), Joey Votto (14) and Eugenio Suárez (10) has produced 54 home runs, more than the team totals of the Giants (43) and Red Sox (53).

Billy Hamilton is 24-for- 26 in stolen base attempts with Platinum & Gold Glover Yadier Molina catching. His 24 steals are the most by any baserunner vs the perennial All-Star catcher and his 27 steals overall vs St Louis are the most by any active opponent vs the Cardinals. Hamilton began his career 10-for- 10 vs Molina until he was caught with Jonathan Broxton pitching on 9/13/15 at Great American Ball Park.

Schebler has an 8-game hitting streak vs the Cards (12-25, .480, 3 2b, 4 HRs, 10 RBI) and at least 1 RBI in each of his last 7 games vs. the Cards. It’s veteran Bronson Arroyo (3-4, 6.24) on the mound. Arroyo yielded two runs over six innings in a no-decision against the Braves on Friday. Arroyo gave up seven hits, including a solo homer to Dansby Swanson. He leads the Majors with 19 homers allowed, including 13 in his last six starts — all solo shots.

According to Statcast™, the Braves did not hit Arroyo hard overall as they averaged an exit velocity of 76.4 mph on all of his 93 pitches in the game. Arroyo had Tommy John surgery on his elbow, followed by shoulder surgery in 2014 while with Arizona. He spent 2 1/2 years out of the Major Leagues until earning a spot as a non-roster invite with the Reds and signing a contract worth the league minimum upon making the club.

“It was the first time I’ve felt normal in three years," Arroyo said after his last start. "For a guy like myself, where feel and being so consistent with health was usually so easy for me in my career, and then having two surgeries, you just don’t realize how many details you actually have to put together to make that puzzle work again.”

St. Louis at Cincinnati MLB Betting Pick: St. Louis Cardinals

Lynn is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA this season against the Reds.