It seems simple enough to suggest that a team that scores more runs than they concede over the course of a season will have a good chance of landing on top of their division. That stat would certainly seem to bear out this year, as every team leading the divisions in the MLB has a positive run differential. As tends to be the case, though, there are always outliers, with the biggest one right now being the Cincinnati Reds, who are sitting on a +23-run differential, yet dead last in their division.
The Minnesota Twins are the argument for this stat, though, as they have a nice lead atop the AL Central, while also sporting one of the best run differentials in the MLB right now. They are in fact the only team in the Central Division to be on the positive side of things in that regard. The Twins will look to put even more distance between themselves and the Detroit Tigers in a 3-game series this weekend. The Twins are favored by 1 ½ on Friday, with the run total set at 9.
Tigers vs Twins MLB Week 6 Odds & Expert Prediction
- When: Friday, May 10 at 8:10 PM EST
- Where: Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland
- Starting Pitchers: Ross vs. Odorizzi
- TV: MLB Extra Innings
- Radio: WELY
- Live Stream: MLB.tv
- MLB Odds: Minnesota Twins -245 (Total 9)
Why bet on the Detroit Tigers?It is perhaps a good example of the weakness of the AL Central that the Tigers are able to be sitting in 3rd right now despite being 2 games under .500 on the season. They have really not been able to get anything going this year, perhaps because they are having such a difficult time getting tuns over the plate. Detroit have scored just 121 times, which puts them at the bottom of the offensive heap in the National League.
There is a stunning lack of power in the line-up, with Gordon Beckham leading the team with just 3 HR. To make matters worse, they will be facing a Twins pitcher on Friday night who is the current AL player of the week. The Tigers are 7-10 SU on the road and will try to improve that record with Tyson Ross (1-4, 5.34 ERA) on the mound.
- Runs: 3.56
- Hits: 7.74
- Walks: 3.12
- Strike Outs: 9.94
- Runs: 4.79
- Hits: 8.65
- Walks: 3.41
- Strike Outs: 8.41
Why bet on the Minnesota Twins?The Twins have been in outstanding form to start the season, registering a 23-12 SU record, which is good enough to have them 3 games up on the Cleveland Indians in the Central Division. They come into this one on the heels of a sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays and will feel as though they have an opportunity to strengthen their position at the top, with their next 7 games all coming at home.
Minnesota have certainly enjoyed playing in their own ballpark this year, putting together a very respectable 11-5 home record. With 7 wins in their last 10 games, this is a team on form, going 7-3 ATS in those 10 games. It will be Jake Odorizzi (4-2, 2.78 ERA) who gets the start here.
- Runs: 5.31
- Hits: 8.80
- Walks: 2.97
- Strike Outs: 7.46
- Runs: 4.06
- Hits: 7.91
- Walks: 3.06
- Strike Outs: 8.57
Tigers vs Twins MLB Betting Trends
- Tigers are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit’s last 7 games when playing as the underdog
- Twins are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota’s last 9 games played on a Friday
- Tigers are 75-135 against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.
- Twins are 23-12 against the money line in all games this season
- Ross is 0-4 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 5.00 and a WHIP of 1.389
- Odorizzi is 3-1 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.77 and a WHIP of 1.326
Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction for Tigers vs TwinsThis looks to me like a definite pitching mismatch that plays in the favor of the Twins. I like them to win this one rather comfortably, covering the spread and making it tough for the anemic Tigers to get much going offensively.
Score: Detroit Tigers 2 – Minnesota Twins 6