Top MLB Betting Picks & Tips for Independence Day

Posted by Jordan Walterss on Monday,July 3, 2017 10:24, EDT in

There’s nothing more American on July 4 than grilling some hot dogs and burgers, sipping a cool beer and watching some holiday baseball on the holiday! And with that in mind, here are three MLB betting picks for Independence Day.

Top MLB Betting Picks & Tips for Independence Day

Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees

When: Tuesday, July 4th, 2017
Where: Yankee Stadium, 1:05 PM ET
TV: MLB Extra Innings / SNET (Toronto) / YES (NY)
Radio: SN590 (Toronto) / WFAN 660 (NY)
Stream: MLB.tv
MLB Betting Odds: Yankees at -120

It’s a matchup of southpaws. The Yanks will activate CC Sabathia from the DL to make the start. Sabathia had pitched to a 0.99 ERA in his last six starts but sustained a strained left hamstring in his most recent outing on June 13 against the Angels. Sabathia gave up six runs to the Blue Jays on May 3.

Luis Cessa has lost all three of his starts in place of Sabathia, including last Thursday night’s game in Chicago in which he gave up just two earned runs (four total) but lasted only 4.2 innings. In those three starts, Cessa has a 5.93 ERA.

Who Will Start Off for Toronto?

It’s JA Happ for Toronto. Happ lost after allowing two runs on eight hits and two walks with two strikeouts in 6 1/3 innings vs. the Orioles on Thursday. Happ (2-5, 3.71 ERA) notched his fourth straight quality start, but he was saddled with the loss.

Happ has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five of his six starts since returning from the disabled list May 30, looking more like the 20-game winner who finished sixth in last year’s AL Cy Young Award race. Go Yankees.

Latest MLB Betting Trends

  • Blue Jays are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 games
  • Yankees are 4-15 ATS in the last 19 games
  • Blue Jays are 1-5 SU in the last 6 games
  • Yankees are 5-14 SU in the last 19 games
  • The total went UNDER in 4 of Toronto’s last 6 games
  • The total went OVER in 4 of NY Yankees’s last 5 games

Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago Cubs

When: Tuesday, July 4th, 2017
Where: Wrigley Field, 2:20 PM ET
TV: MLB Extra Innings / Fox Sports Sun (Tampa Bay) / WGN (Chicago)
Radio:  WDAE 620 AM (Tampa Bay) / 670 The Score (Chicago)
Stream: MLB.tv
MLB Betting Odds: Cubs at -145

This is arguably the best pitching matchup of the day as the Rays go with Chris Archer, who was traded to Tampa Bay years ago by the Cubs in the Matt Garza deal. The Cubs are known to covet dealing for Archer before this year’s trade deadline, but it would be very costly.

Archer lost after allowing three runs on eight hits (two homers) and no walks with five strikeouts in six innings Thursday against the Pirates. Archer (6-5, 3.92 ERA) had earned victories in his previous two starts, but he saw his winning streak come to an end despite notching a quality start.

The Rays are not the MLB betting favorite against the Cubs.

So What Happened In That Game for Archer?

Two of the three runs he allowed came on solo homers, marking just the third time in 17 starts this season that he’s given up multiple long balls. Archer has one career start against the Cubs, which came in 2014.

Cubs lefty Jon Lester posted his fourth consecutive quality start in his last outing, holding the Nationals to one run over six innings. After a rough patch from May 28 to June 8 (8.16 ERA), Lester has posted a 2.42 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP and a 28-to- 6 K/BB ratio during a span of four straight quality starts (26 innings). Unless the wind is blowing out at Wrigley, go under the total here. The Rays lose the DH.

Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers

When: Tuesday, July 4th, 2017
Where: Globe Life Park in Arlington, 8 PM ET
TV: ESPN / NESB (Boston) / FSSW (Texas)
Radio: WEEI 93.7 (Boston) / KFZO 99.1 (Texas)
Stream: WatchESPN
MLB Betting Odds: Red Sox at -120

Another good pitching matchup. It’s lefty David Price for Boston. Price (3-2, 4.61) allowed three runs on six hits while striking out seven batters through seven innings during Thursday’s win over Minnesota.

The veteran lefty hasn’t been overly sharp since returning from the disabled list May 29, but he’s now allowed three runs or fewer in five of six starts and owns a 1.27 WHIP and 7.9 K/9.  After the game on a flight to Toronto, Price had a verbal confrontation with Dennis Eckersley, a color commentator for New England Sports Network.

It’s unclear what, specifically, about the broadcast angered Price, who allowed three runs in seven innings on Thursday night but neglected to cover first base at one point in the fourth inning.

So What’s Up With David Price?

Last month, Price said he would no longer speak to the media on days when he doesn’t pitch. He also blew up at a reporter from CSNNE.com earlier this season after a game in New York.

Texas’ Yu Darvish is 1-4 with a 3.53 ERA in his last seven starts and he is 3-3 with a 3.81 ERA in nine starts at home. He is pitching against the Red Sox for the first time since 2014 and is 1-1 with a 3.63 ERA in three starts. Take Texas at home.

Latest MLB Betting Trends

  • Red Sox are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 games
  • Rangers are 16-7 ATS in the last 23 games
  • Red Sox are 6-1 SU in the last 7 games
  • Rangers are 1-4 SU in the last 5 games
  • The total went UNDER in 6 of Boston’s last 9 games
  • The total went OVER in 5 of Texas’s last 7 games at home