Toronto at Cleveland ALCS Game 2 Expert Pick

Posted by Jordan Walterss on October 14, 2016 in

Will the Cleveland Indians play their final home game of the season on Saturday afternoon in Game 2 of the AL Championship Series? That depends on what happens in Game 1 on Friday night but the series shifts to Toronto for three games after Saturday so the Tribe certainly don’t want to be in an 0-2 hole. They likely will be slight underdogs in the MLB odds for Game 2 after being favored in Game 1 behind ace Corey Kluber.

How to Bet on the Toronto at Cleveland ALCS Game 2 Expert Pick & TV Info

When: Saturday, Oct. 15, 4 PM ET
Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland
Probable pitchers (away/home): J.A. Happ/Trevor Bauer
RadioToronto / Cleveland
Opening MLB Lines: TBA

Why Bet on Toronto?

The Blue Jays start lefty J.A. Happ, who will get some Cy Young votes. He got the win in Game 2 of the ALDS vs. Texas. Happ had two baserunners on base in each of the first four innings but managed to pitch into the sixth having allowed just one run. That was enough to preserve Toronto’s early lead, helping secure a 5-3 victory.

In the first inning, the Rangers put a pair of runners on base for Rougned Odor, who grounded out to first base. In the second, Nomar Mazara and Carlos Gomez each struck out looking to strand two more baserunners. In the third, Jonathan Lucroy grounded out with two men on. Happ was pulled after allowing a leadoff single in the sixth. The victory was the first of his postseason career. He also became the first pitcher since John Lackey in Game 6 of the 2013 World Series to go five or more innings allowing one run or fewer and nine or more hits.

In the regular season, Happ won 20 games for the first time in his career. The wins were 2nd in MLB to Boston’s Rick Porcello (22). The only other pitcher to reach 20 wins in a season for the 1st time in his 10th season (or later) while pitching for Toronto was David Wells (14th season). The Jays went 24-8 in his starts and 65-65 in all other games. Happ’s .833 winning pct. was the 2nd best mark all-time for Toronto. Happ held hitters to a .201 average with RISP, 3rd best in the AL. His .252 OBP in those situations was 2nd in MLB (Justin Verlander .250).

Happ also held the opposition to one earned run or less on 15 occasions, tied for most in the AL. He won a career-high 11 consecutive decisions from June 11-August 17 over 12 starts (had previously won seven straight, twice in his career). He faced the Indians once, on July 3 in Toronto, and dominated in allowing one run and five hits over seven innings while striking out a season-high 11 in a 17-1 victory

Why Bet on Cleveland?

The Tribe go with right-hander Trevor Bauer. He started Game 1 of the ALDS vs. Boston and got a no- decision. He allowed three runs and six hits (two homers) while striking out six in 4.2 innings. A three-run flurry in the third inning — powered by home runs from Roberto Perez, Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor — pushed Cleveland to a 4-2 advantage. In the top of the fifth, though, Bauer yielded a home run to Sandy Leon, trimming the Tribe’s lead to one run. Manager Terry Francona let Bauer collect two more outs before summoning reliever Andrew Miller. It was Bauer’s first career postseason start.

In the regular season, Bauer had his best year. He set career highs in wins and innings pitched while permitting the fewest walks per nine innings of his career (3.32). He went 12-8 with a 4.26 ERA (90ER/190.0IP) in 35 appearances (28 starts) and registered a 10-8 record and a 4.35 ERA (84ER/173.2IP) over his 28 starts.

Bauer faced the Jays twice. On Aug. 19 in Cleveland, he took a no-decision in allowing two runs and five hits over eight innings while striking out a season-high 13. He pitched in Toronto on July 1 in relief and got the win, shutting out the Jays on two hits over five innings. Josh Donaldson is 2-for- 5 career off Bauer with a double and three RBIs. Russell Martin is 3-for- 6 with a homer and two RBIs.

My Expert Prediction

Go with Toronto on MLB lines here. The early start time could help the pitchers keep the runs down.