Marlins vs. Braves

Tuesday NLDS Game 1 previews: Marlins vs. Braves and Padres vs. Dodgers

Written by on October 5, 2020

The two National League Division Series open on Tuesday with NL East rivals Miami and Atlanta playing in Houston (Braves are home team) and NL West rivals San Diego and the LA Dodgers (Dodgers are home team) facing off from Arlington.

  • When: Tuesday, 2:08 p.m. ET (Mia-Atl) and 9:38 p.m. ET (SD-LAD)
  • Where: Minute Maid Park (Mia-Atl) and Globe Life Park (SD-LAD)
  • TV/stream: Fox Sports 1 both, Fox Sports Go app
  • MLB odds: TBA

How to Bet Marlins vs. Braves and Padres vs. Dodgers| Game 1

Marlins-Braves probable pitchers | 2020 MLB Expert Analysis

As of this writing, Miami manager Don Mattingly hasn’t named a starting pitcher for this game but it most likely will be Sandy Alcantara. He was 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA this season. Alcantara pitched to a 2.30 ERA over his final five appearances, striking out 30 batters in 31.1 innings. Overall, he held opponents to just 1 earned run in four of his seven starts this season and allowed more than 2 earned runs just twice. Alcantara induced six double plays in 32 such situations in 2020 – an 18.8% GIDP rate, tied for seventh-highest mark among NL starters.

Alcantara pitched Game 1 of the Wild-Card round last Wednesday vs. the Cubs and held them to one run over 6.2 innings in a victory. Alcantara walked three and hit a batter, but the only damage on the afternoon came on Ian Happ’s solo homer in the fifth. Alcantara spent time on the COVID-19 IL earlier this season and struggled in his first start back, but he has been better than ever since turning the page on that Aug. 30 outing with only nine earned runs allowed in his last 38 innings.

It’s Braves ace lefty Max Fried. He made 11 starts during the regular season, going 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA (14 ER/56.0 IP) and 50 strikeouts. The Braves went 10-1 in his 11 starts. His seven wins tied for third most in the majors, and he was one of just two pitchers in baseball with at least five wins and zero losses. Tampa Bay’s Josh Fleming was 5-0. Fried’s 2.25 ERA would have ranked fourth lowest in the N.L. with enough innings

Had he qualified his 2.25 ERA would have been the lowest for a Braves pitcher since Greg Maddux logged a 2.22 ERA in 1998. No qualified left-hander had an ERA as low as Fried’s for the Braves since the team moved to Atlanta in 1966. Tom Glavine has the lowest, a 2.47 ERA in 1998.

Fried tossed seven scoreless innings in the Braves’ Wild Card Game 1 win over the Reds on Wednesday. Fried didn’t qualify for the win because the Braves weren’t able to push a run across until Freddie Freeman’s walkoff RBI single in the bottom of the 13th inning, which finally broke a 0-0 stalemate. Fried struck out five batters while issuing zero walks and scattering six hits — all singles.

Padres-Dodgers probable pitchers | 2020 MLB Expert Analysis

The Padres haven’t announced their Game 1 starter yet as arguably their two best ones, Dinelson Lamet and Mike Clevinger, both missed the Wild-Card Round due to injuries. They are trending toward perhaps being available in this series but probably not for Game 1.

It thus likely will be either Chris Paddack or Zach Davies here. Davies went just two innings and allowed four runs in a Game 2 start against the Cardinals last Thursday in the Wild Card Series. He allowed a run in the first on a Yadier Molina opposite-field single, and then gave up three more the next inning; including a two-run homer to Kolten Wong. Paddack was torched for six runs over just 2 1/3 innings last Wednesday in the Padres’ loss to the Cardinals. The Cardinals jumped on Paddack early, picking up five straight hits and four runs in the top of the first inning.

The Dodgers will go with Walker Buehler (1-0, 3.44). Buehler allowed two runs over four innings with eight strikeouts in his start against the Brewers in Game 1 of the Wild Card series.  Buehler allowed three hits, and he walked two. He didn’t have many issues in the first three innings, but he did allow a two-run homer to Orlando Arcia to cut the Dodgers’ lead to 3-2. Still, the right-hander showed off impressive stuff and didn’t appear to be bothered by his blister while getting 15 swing-and-misses in the outing.

As he recovers from his blister problems, Manager Dave Roberts is unsure how many innings he expects Buehler to throw on Tuesday or if the Dodgers will plan to have someone piggyback his start.

“His finger is in a great place,” Roberts said. “We’ll keep an eye on him each inning. He’s probably going to be upset when the time comes [to take him out of the game]. We’re trying to win this start and the next series and have him pitch. I can’t say that it’s a scripted start or when we’re going to deploy our guys in the pen.”

Expert picks

Braves 5, Marlins 1; Dodgers 6, Padres 3 
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