Who’s Offering Value on 2016 MLB Total Wins Over/Under?

Posted by Joe Solari on April 10, 2016 in

We are barely a week old into the new MLB season and the standings are totally skewed up at the moment, so don’t start fretting if the team you picked to win a particular division is currently logged at the bottom of the divisional standings. Once the season settles, parity will be restored and the real contenders in the league will reveal themselves.

That said, you should keep in mind that this is a new year and the MLB online betting odds, as we’ve seen so far, will witness some seismic changes that could mess up your predictions if you are still hang up on last year’s performances. Keeping that in mind; read on below as we take a quick look at some of the teams that look to offer best MLB betting value in the 2016 Major Leagues Baseball regular season win totals.

Who’s Offering Value on 2016 MLB Total Wins Over/Under?

Boston Red Sox (OVER 86.5)

Last year, the Red Sox were one of the biggest disappointments in the Majors. At the start of the season, they were predicted to win well over the 86.5 O/U total, yet they only managed to rack up just 78 wins. A big reason for their underwhelming season was the inefficiency of Pablo Sandoval who turned in a -2.0 WAR season, worst mark in the majors and five wins lower than any of his previous seasons. If the beleaguered Boston first baseman can get anywhere near to the 1.6 WAR predicted for him this season, I fancy the Red Sox to be a better team in the AL East, which should translate to more wins and a likely cash out in OVER betting in the season total that has once again been set at 86.5 games.

St Louis Cardinals (UNDER 87.5)

The Cardinals have been pure class over the past decade or so, something that is affirmed by the fact that they have won at least 88 games in 11 of their past 16 seasons, including winning 100 games last year when they had their season total set at 88.5. Obviously, it would be tempting to go OVER the 87.5 hurdle set for them this year. The danger of doing that, however, is that St Louis’ solid pitching could be in crisis this year, as four of the five starters, except for Mike Leake, have dealt with major injuries in the recent past. Meanwhile, St Louis’ NL Central division rivals in Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds are all expected to be on the rise this year (and go OVER in their season totals), following their solid offseason improvements in team rosters. And looking at the MLB standings so far, where the Cubs, Pirates and Reds have all won their three games while the Cards are 0-3 entering Friday, April 08; you can’t help but feel that the Cards will be in for a very long and tumultuous season. With that, playing on UNDER 87.5 wins feels like the best way to go this year.

Toronto Blue Jays (UNDER 87.5)

Don’t get me wrong, the Blue Jays will be a good team and their performance this season will probably be as good as last year (if not better), especially if they get to the playoffs. I mean, Josh Donaldson (6.1 WAR), Jose Bautista (3.6 WAR), Russell Martin (3.4 WAR) and Troy Tulowitzki (3.2 WAR) are sure bets to fire up Toronto’s scary offense. My worry, however, is that the Blue Jays don’t have a reliable pitching unit, no wonder only one pitcher on their roster is predicted to be worth more than 2 WAR this year. So, although Toronto was good value for an OVER last year when they predictably went above the 83.5 season total, I have a feeling that the Blue Jays will lose enough 10-8 games to keep their total below their bumped up 87.5 season total this year.

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Kansas City Royals (UNDER 85.5)

Having won the last two World Series titles, it is hard to stake a claim that the Royals are not a quality team. Last year, for instance, their O/U season total was set at 80.5… and they went ahead to blow up that number by 15 games. This year, the line has been increased to 85.5, understandably because the winning two successive World Series titles is affecting the public perception and the sportsbooks want to cash in on that. Don’t buy into that idea. Yordana Ventura is the only Kansas City pitcher in the roster projected to be worth more than 2 WAR. Meanwhile, the likes of Alex Gordon (3.8 WAR), Kendrys Morales (0.7 WAR) and Lorenzo Cain (3.5 WAR) are likely to see some drop in their production in the batting department. Add that to the expected rise of teams in the AL Central MLB odds, I have reservations about Kansas City having another stellar season. Give me the season total at just UNDER 85.5.