World Series Game 3 MLB Betting: NY Mets Should Be Due for First Win over KC Royals

Posted by Alex Murphy on October 30, 2015 in

Entering this year’s World Series, the New York Mets were trumpeted as the team to beat, according to both humans and computers, and it seemed as if they’d be in for a big showing. MLB betting enthusiasts were high on them, the crazy fans in New York were talking about a four-game Championship sweep, and many betting analysts (me included) unseeingly trusted in their numbers without second-guessing their potential. Virtually, everyone got the memo, or so we thought. .. Two games into the best-of-seven Fall Classic, it is clear that the Kansas City Royals never got the memo, or maybe got but didn’t believe all the NY hype–a fact that is affirmed by their two championship-caliber wins in their series, including a dominant showing from Johnny Cueto and his offense in Wednesday’s 7-1 win over the Mets in Game 2.

Are the Royals the real deal, or have the Mets just been unlucky in the MLB odds ? Can the Mets bounce back now that the series is back in New York, or will the Royals continue to dominate the MLB World Series online betting lines, like they did in Game 2?  Read on, as we try to answer those questions in the World Series Game 3 preview prepared for you below:

World Series Game 3 MLB Betting: NY Mets Should Be Due for First Win over KC Royals

Series Standing: Royals lead series 2-0
Starting Pitchers: Yordano Ventura vs. Noah Syndergaard
Venue: Citi Field, Flushing, New York
Date: Friday, October 30, 2015
Time: 8:07 PM ET
MLB Lines: KC Royals (+125) at NY Mets (-135), OVER/UNDER (7)



Royals at Mets World Series Game 3 Online MLB Betting Analysis

As you all probably know by now, Game 1 of this series was a great baseball matchup that could have gone either way, but in the end, the Royals showed a never-say-die attitude that crucially got them back into the game and earned them a big win, never mind on a night that their mistakes could have easily cost them the victory.

And if you thought their Game 1 show was impressive, then Game 2 was definitely one for the record books in Kansas City’s folklore. Cueto, a highly prized free agent that had previously struggled for KC, pitched a gem, allowing just two hits in his best performance of the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Royal offense kept on knocking so hard that Jacob deGrom couldn’t hold on to his guts anymore, crumbling in the fifth inning that allowed the Royals to record 4 runs for a 4-1 lead after trailing the game by a single run in the fourth. After that, it was clear that the Mets were going to see out the game, and they did so in astounding and dominant fashion, giving up no runs in the rest of the game, while posting a 3-run eighth inning to record a comfortable win.

As things stand, there’s simply no way this Royals team will be stopped from winning it all— they are poised to become World Series champions, whether sooner or later.

Not to say that the Mets have been unimpressive, or a miracle can’t happen to turn the tables around; it’s just that Ned Yost and his team seemingly learned their lessons from last season’s World Series defeat to Madison Bumgarner and the San Francisco Giants. And to avoid another tale of close “but not close enough,” they are throwing everything at the Mets, who are starting to look second-best in nearly every turn in this series.

That, of course, could change when the Mets give the ball to Noah Syndergaard this Friday. The Mets have been nearly unstoppable when Syndergaard is on the mound, boasting of a 10-3 record in Syndergaard’s last 13 home starts. In addition, the right-hander is 7-2 with a 2.46 ERA in his last 12 starts at Citi Field. In his most recent start, he was as solid as can be, allowing just one earned run on three hits, while striking out nine in 5.2 innings of work to give the Mets a 4-1 win back in Game 2 of the NLCS.

But then again, deGrom was just as dominant in the playoffs, if not better, yet the KC trio of Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas found ways of feeding off his few weaknesses, so treating Syndergaard similarly should be within the realms of strong possibility.

Plus, KC’s starter for Game 3, Yordano Ventura, has also been doing quite well in the playoffs so far. In his last outing, Game 6 of the ALCS, Ventura was solid, allowing just one run on four hits in five-plus innings to give the Royals a 4-3 win over Toronto. So although Ventura is just 0-1 with a 5.09 ERA in his four starts this postseason, a  good game can be expected from him.

And in the event that he isn’t that good, KC’s excellent bullpen that has a collective ERA of 2.76 over the last 14 games should step in to the rescue, especially now that they are well-rested after Cueto had a complete-game start on Wednesday.

For the Mets to counter all that, the offense will need to wake up from its slumber. NY’s postseason hero Daniel Murphy is just 2-for-9 with two walks since the start of the World Series and was hitless in Game 2, with the Mets’ only two hits against Cueto coming from Lucas Duda. For a better result, Murphy, Duda, Curtis Granderson, Juan Lagares (4-for-9 thus far this postseason) and Travis d’Arnaud (5-for-16 with two homers and four RBIs in the postseason) will thus need to feed off their home crowd energy and play better, or else the Royals will make another killing this Friday.

Key Betting Trends

•    Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
•    NY Mets is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
•    Kansas City is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
•    NY Mets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
•    Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Mets
•    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 7 games
•    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Mets’ last 7 home games
•    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets’ last 6 home games against Kansas City

Writer’s Prediction

Going by their hot form so far in the World Series, it would almost look misguided to say that the Royals won’t be playing well this Friday. Matter of fact, I’d confidently recommend Kansas City for those who are betting on who will claim this year’s MLB gold. Nonetheless, I don’t see the Royals being hot throughout the series, and I strongly fancy Syndergaard (who was routinely hitting 100 mph with his fastball in his last game) to throw it hard and cause all kinds of problems to KC hitters tonight. Meanwhile, the New York hitters should be able to feed off the home support and get their bats hot. And with all that effort combined, the New York Mets should be due for a win and cover of the point spread (-1.5), with the game total managing to just about go above 7 runs for an OVER.