It’s hard to get excited about too many individual baseball games in a 162-game season. However, Thursday’s matchup Yankees-Indians is an epic battle. Not only is it a rematch of last year’s ALDS between the teams but it’s also arguably the best pitching matchup of any game in 2018 with Luis Severino facing Corey Kluber – both are All-Stars and leading Cy Young candidates. Let’s check which team is offering the best betting value at the MLB odds for Thursday night while making some predictions.
How to Bet Yankees vs Indians MLB Odds & Pick
We scored 6,840 feet worth of runs yesterday.
— Cleveland Indians (@Indians) 12 de julio de 2018
- When: Thursday, 7:10 PM ET
- Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland
- Probable Pitchers: Luis Severino/Corey Kluber
- TV: MLB Network
- Stream: MLB.tv
- Radio: TuneIn
- MLB Odds: Cleveland Indians -109 / New York Yankees Yankees -101 (Total 7)
Yanks swept three at home in early May … and won the final three games of last year’s ALDS after going down 0-2. The finale of the May series was memorable as New York won 7-4 on rookie Gleyber Torres’ three-run walk-off homer. He became the youngest Yankee ever with a walk-off homer. At 21 years and 144 days, Torres bettered a guy named Mickey Mantle, who was 21 years and 185 days when he hit three-run, ninth-inning drive off Boston’s Ellis Kinder in a 6-3 win on April 23, 1953.
Why Bet on NY Yankees?
The Indians won’t have to worry about Torres now as he’s on the disabled list with a hip injury. He was named to the All-Star Game but won’t be able to play and has been replaced by Oakland’s Jed Lowrie. Torres did hit off a tee on Tuesday. He is expected to begin a minor league rehab assignment during the All-Star break and should be ready for activation soon after the second half of the season gets underway. The 21-year-old rookie sensation was placed on the disabled list July 4 with a right hip strain.
In addition, star catcher Gary Sanchez remains out. Sanchez is expected to begin a minor league rehab assignment this weekend and should be ready for the Yankees’ first game after the All-Star break. The 25-year-old slugger landed on the disabled list June 25 with a Grade 1 strain of his right groin. Austin Romine and Kyle Higashioka have been filling in at catcher for New York.
It’s Cy Young favorite Luis Severino on the mound here, and he’s the leading candidate to start next week’s All-Star Game for the American League. The Yanks are 17-2 in his starts, making him the most profitable pitcher in the majors if you bet on all his games. Severino (14-2, 2.12) picked up the win in Saturday’s 8-5 victory over the Blue Jays, allowing three runs on five hits and two walks over five innings while striking out five. The right-hander needed 97 pitches (70 strikes) to get through the minimum innings required for a win, and Severino served up multiple homers for the first time all season, but the outcome was never in doubt after the Yankees’ offense staked him to a 4-0 lead before he took the mound. He’s already matched his win total from all of last year.
Severino didn’t face the Indians earlier this season but beat them in Game 4 of last year’s ALDS. Severino is the fourth pitcher in franchise history to record 14 wins prior to the All-Star break, joining Mel Stottlemyre (14-7 in 24GS in 1969), Whitey Ford (16-2 in 21GS in 1961), and Lefty Gomez (14-2 in 19G/17GS in 1934). He’s only the fourth pitcher in the majors to record at least 14 wins prior to the All-Star break in the last 16 seasons (since 2003).
Severino has won five straight starts, the longest streak of his career (won four straight from 7/20-8/6/17). It marks the longest streak of consecutive wins since CC Sabathia won five consecutive starts from 5/16-6/7/17.
Why Bet on Cleveland?
One big reason the Indians reached the 2016 World Series was a big trade they made with the Yankees to land reliever Andrew Miller. Alas, the big lefty remains on the DL currently. Miller (knee) threw off a mound Wednesday at Progressive Field and worked the regular mound rather than in the bullpen so that his velocity and spin rates could be tracked on Statcast. Miller is aiming to return to the Indians’ bullpen shortly after the All-Star break. Cleveland’s bullpen has crashed without him.
Outfielder Lonnie Chisenhall has been diagnosed with a Grade 3 strain of his left calf and will miss the next 8-10 weeks. It was a severe right calf strain that cost him nearly two months earlier this season. Chisenhall has appeared in only 29 games this year for Cleveland and can now be ruled out until sometime in September.
It’s ace and two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber here, and he’s also in the conversation to start the All-Star Game (he was the winning pitcher in the ASG two years ago). Kluber (12-4, 2.49) Kluber didn’t factor into the decision in Saturday’s 6-3 extra-innings loss to the A’s, giving up five hits and two walks over seven scoreless innings while striking out three. He left the game in line for his 13th win of the season before the Cleveland bullpen messed things up. Kluber had to settle instead for his 17th quality start of the year.
Kluber is set to make his first start this season against the New York Yankees. He owns a lifetime record of 5-1 in seven career starts vs. the Yankees with a 1.80 ERA (10ER/50.0IP). He went 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in two regular-season starts against the Yanks in 2017, including a complete game victory at Progressive Field on August 3. He will also be making his 11th start at Progressive Field this season, where he has gone 7-1 with a 1.43 ERA (11ER/69.0IP). Kluber owns with the 2nd-lowest home ERA in MLB (Tampa Bay’s Blake Snell – 0.87).
Latest MLB Betting Trends
- Yankees are 6-1 in Severino’s last 7 road starts
- Yankees are 23-6 in Severino’s last 29 starts vs. a team with a winning record
- Indians are 18-5 in Kluber’s last 23 starts during game 1 of a series
- Indians are 31-12 in Kluber’s last 43 home starts
- New York is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
- New York is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 15 of NY Yankees’s last 20 games on the road
- Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
- Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cleveland’s last 10 games
Expert MLB Betting Prediction
This may have the final score of a World Cup game. Take the Tribe in the MLB odds.