It’s not impossible that the Yankees and Mariners meet in this year’s AL wild-card game, but it’s very unlikely that Seattle will end the longest playoff drought in the majors. The M’s open a three-game weekend set vs. New York behind ace James Paxton, a slight MLB Betting favorite.
Yankees vs Mariners MLB Spread – September 7th
- When: Friday, 10:10 PM ET
- Where: Safeco Field, Seattle
- Probable pitchers (away/home): Masahiro Tanaka/James Paxton
- TV: MLB Extra Innings
- Live Stream: MLB.tv
- Radio: TuneIn
- MLB Spread: Seattle Mariners -108 / New York Yankees -102 (Total 7.5)
Why Bet on New York?The Yanks started their road trip losing two of three in Oakland – that likely will be the wild-card matchup. Ace Luis Severino lasted just 2 2/3 innings and gave up six runs — five earned – Wednesday. Severino dropped to 3-5 with a 6.95 ERA in nine starts since the All-Star break. That’s hugely worrisome.Some good and bad injury news for New York. The good is that shortstop Didi Gregorius (heel) will likely be activated on Friday. Gregorius has had a couple of other close calls before having his timeline pushed, but it does sound like the shortstop will be ready to roll Friday. The 28-year-old has been on the disabled list with a contusion in his left heel since August 20.However, outfielder Clint Frazier (concussion) suffered a setback and is unlikely to be able to play again in 2018. The 23-year-old was only able to make 41 plate appearances with the Yankees and has been out since July 19. Closer Aroldis Chapman (knee) has been walking on a treadmill and throwing from flat ground. Chapman received a platelet-rich plasma injection last Tuesday. He’s been on the disabled list since August 22 with left knee tendinitis.New York starts right-hander Masahiro Tanaka (10-5, 3.83). Tanaka got the victory Saturday by throwing seven innings, allowing just one run on seven hits and one walk while striking out six in the Yankees’ win over the Tigers. He has delivered back-to-back outings of at least seven frames for the first time all season, following the loss he suffered Monday to the White Sox. Tanaka handled Detroit with much more precision, notching a strike on 67 of 96 pitches, including 15 whiffs (10 on his splitter).Tanaka has allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last nine starts, posting a 2.68 ERA over that span. He is 6-0 with a 2.34 ERA in seven starts against the Mariners, including 3-0 with a 2.17 ERA in four starts at Safeco Field.
Why Bet on Seattle?Seattle is 5.5 games behind Oakland for the second wild-card spot so it’s not looking good. The Mariners opened the week taking two of three vs. Baltimore, winning the finale 5-2 on Wednesday. Denard Span went 3-for-3 with a homer and two RBI. It’s been a solid season for Span, and his line improves to .277/.349/.449 to go along with those 11 homers and 56 RBI in 390 at-bats. Nelson Cruz went 2-for-4 with a homer and a double. He now has 34 homers and 85 RBIs, giving the slugger an outside chance for a 40-homer, 100-RBI season.Edwin Diaz pitched a scoreless inning and struck out two to pick up his 53rd Wednesday. Diaz struck out the first two hitters he saw and got a weak fly to right to give him his 53rd save in 57 tries. He’s now struck out a whopping 117 hitters in 67 1/3 innings, and his ERA drops to 1.87. Diaz is on pace for 61 saves now, which would put him one behind the all-time record of 62 behind Francisco Rodriguez.The Mariners are 56-18 when scoring 4-or-more runs, but are 22-44 when scoring 3-or-fewer runs. The Mariners are 1 of 2 Major League clubs with a 1.000 winning percentage (67-0) when leading after 8 innings this season, joining Oakland (68-0).It’s lefty ace James Paxton (11-5, 3.74). Paxton allowed three earned runs on two hits and four walks while striking out 10 across five innings to earn the win Saturday against the Athletics.: Paxton walked four batters for the third time this season, but three of the free passes came in the fifth inning. Considering it was his first start in nearly three weeks — he was on the disabled list with a forearm injury — it’s possible that he was tiring as the game wore on. Paxton generated an impressive 20 swinging strikes.Paxton is making his 2nd career start vs. the Yankees. He took the loss in his sole start against the Yankees, a 4-3 Mariners loss on June 21 (5.0 IP, 7 H, 4R, 2 HRs).
Latest Yankees vs Mariners MLB Betting Trends
- Yankees are 2-9 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record
- Yankees are 1-7 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record
- Mariners are 10-4 in Paxton’s last 14 starts vs. American League East
- Mariners are 14-6 in Paxton’s last 20 starts vs. a team with a winning record
- NY is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
- NY is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees’ last 7 games
- Seattle is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
- Seattle is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle’s last 6 games