Yankees at Mets MLB Betting Prediction & Pick for Friday Night

Posted by Jordan Walters on Friday,June 8, 2018 9:04, EDT in

The biggest series of the weekend, at least from a hype factor, is the Subway Series as the Yankees visit the Mets. The Bombers are a much better team in 2018, but which team is better in a given year often doesn’t matter in this series. It’s a great pitching matchup Friday and the Yanks are slight favorites on the MLB betting odds.

Yankees at Mets MLB Betting Preview & Game Info

When: Friday, 7:10 PM ET
Where: Citi Field, New York
Probable pitchers (away/home): Masahiro Tanaka/Jacob deGrom
TV: MLB Network
Stream: MLB.tv
Radio: 101.9 FM (Yankees) / 710 AM (Mets)
Opening MLB Betting Lines: Yankees -120, Mets +110 (7.5)

Series History

Since 1997, the term Subway Series has been applied to interleague play during the regular season between these teams. Of course, they also played each other in the 2000 World Series, in which the Yankees won. The Yankees are 12-4 in 16 matchups since 5/14/14 on the heels of a six-game losing streak from 5/27/13-5/13/14, which was their longest ever to the Mets. The Yanks are 29-17 against the Mets since 2009 and 66-46 all-time. The Mets last won the season series with a four-game sweep in 2013, but have split in 2014 and 2016.

Why Bet on NY Yankees?

The Yankees enter with the second-best record in baseball and having won seven of their past eight. They swept two games in Toronto to open this week. Both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton homered in Wednesday’s 3-0 13-inning win. Stanton’s home run never went higher than 45 feet off the ground. It was Judge’s 17th and Stanton’s 14th.  Aroldis Chapman finished for his 15th save in 16 opportunities. The flame-thrower has been nearly untouchable this year with a 1.40 ERA and 46 strikeouts in 25 2/3 innings.

The Yankees are the only team that hasn’t been shut out this season. They have 49 home runs in 28 road games. Only Oakland (54) has homered more often on the road. Yankees batters lead the Majors in runs, runs per game (5.64), homers, homers per game, slugging, OPS, walks and ranks second in OBP (.338) and total bases. The Yanks are on pace to hit 268 homers. The MLB record is 264 by the 1997 Mariners. They have 17 comeback wins this season, tied for second-most in the Majors (Boston-18).

Who Starts on the Mound for the Yankees?

It’s Masahiro Tanaka (7-2, 4.79) on the mound. Tanaka picked up the win last Saturday against the Orioles, allowing four runs on eight hits and one walk across 5.1 innings. He struck out seven. Tanaka’s struggles with the long ball persisted, with the veteran right-hander serving up three solo homers to the Orioles. He’s now allowed nine homers over his last five starts (26.2 innings) and carries an unsightly 2.0 HR/9 on the year. Tanaka also has struggled to pitch deep into games this season, completing six innings just once in his last five starts. Still, he’s undefeated in his last eight starts, going 5-0 with a 4.17 ERA and 42K.

Tanaka is 1-2 with a 3.38 ERA career in three starts vs. the Mets. He threw his first career complete game shutout at the Mets on 5/14/14, a four-hitter with 8K and no walks. Tanaka has recorded a quality start in 11 of his 15 career starts in Interleague play and has completed at least 6.0IP in 12 of the 15 starts.

Why Bet on NY Mets?

Are the Mets a safe bet to win on Friday night vs. the Yankees?

The Mets enter on a six-game losing streak. They’ve scored only two runs in the last 42 innings, and in the last six games, they’ve produced seven runs and 28 hits and they’re 1-for-24 with runners in scoring position. They’ve also lost eight straight games at home and are 12-19 at Citi Field.

One possible piece of good news Friday might be the return of top hitter Yoenis Cespedes. He ran the bases and did sprints in the outfield on Wednesday afternoon. The veteran outfielder has been sidelined since May 14 because of a right hip flexor strain. The Mets have not committed to Cespedes playing in a rehab game before he returns. The lineup certainly needs him, but they can’t risk any further setbacks.

Who Takes the Mound on Saturday?

Jacob deGrom starts Saturday night, and will face one of his toughest tests of the season when he battles the Yankees. DeGrom is 1-3 with a 4.10 ERA in four career starts against the Yankees, but 1-1 with a 0.64 ERA against them at Citi Field. The Mets can count on deGrom to keep them in the game, but will they provide him any run support? He only has four wins this season despite posting a 1.49 ERA through 12 starts.

DeGrom (4-0) didn’t factor into the decision in Saturday’s 7-1 extra-innings loss to the Cubs, allowing one run on seven hits and two walks over seven innings while striking out 13. The right-hander tied his season high in Ks but it was all for naught once again as the Mets fell in 14 innings. He should be something like 7-0 with eight quality starts in 12 outings.

DeGrom has allowed one or no runs in each of his last eight starts. He is one of seven pitchers in the last 50 seasons (since 1969) to string together eight-consecutive starts allowing one or no runs. There have only been two longer such streaks in the majors since at least 1908 (Bob Gibson, 11-straight in 1968; Jack Coombs, 10 in a row in 1910).

In deGrom’s last start vs. the Yankees, he allowed five runs earned in 7.1 innings at Yankee Stadium on August 15 of last season. It was his second straight start in the Bronx allowing at least five runs (has allowed one or no runs in each of his two Subway Series starts at home).

Latest MLB Betting Trends

  • NY Yankees are 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
  • NY Yankees are 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
  • The total went UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees’s last 6 games
  • NY Mets are 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
  • NY Mets are 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total went UNDER in 5 of NY Mets’s last 7 games

Expert MLB Betting Prediction

The Yankees are a far better team, but it’s stealing getting deGrom as an underdog. Take the Mets.