If the Boston Red Sox have any shot of catching the New York Yankees in the AL East – and it’s highly unlikely – they need to sweep the Bombers this weekend. The teams open a series at Fenway on Thursday night with the Yanks favored on MLB Odds.
Yankees vs Red Sox MLB Week 17 Odds & Game Preview
- When: Thursday, 7:10 PM ET
- Where: Fenway Park
- Probable pitchers (away/home): Masahiro Tanaka/Rick Porcello
- TV: MLB Network
- Live Stream: MLB.tv
- Radio: 104.5 ESPN
- MLB Odds: New York Yankees -115 (Total 11)
Why Bet on NY Yankees?
New York has put All-Star catcher Gary Sanchez on the injured list. Sanchez, who had just 10 hits in his last 85 at-bats, landed awkwardly on the first-base bag running out a ground ball in the eighth inning on Tuesday and strained his groin. Sanchez missed two weeks in April with a strained left calf. He is hitting .229 with 24 homers and 58 RBIs. Austin Romine will take over as the primary catcher. The team also called up Kyle Higashioka from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to back up Romine.allowed five runs on seven hits and one walk while striking out three over six innings in a win over the Rockies on Saturday. Tanaka wasn’t at his best, inducing just six swinging strikes on 85 pitches, but he was better than Antonio Senzatela and company on the other side. The right-hander’s strikeout rate has dropped off this season, and his home-run issues have been exacerbated as the weather’s warmed up (11 homers in his last 52.2 innings).
When Tanaka faced the Yankees on June 29 in London, he got two outs as he failed to finish the first inning for the first time in 149 major league starts. It was tied 6-6 after one. It was the first time in the rivalry that both teams scored six or more runs in the opening inning and the first big league game involving any teams in which that occurred since visiting Toronto led Oakland 7-6 on June 23, 1989.
Tanaka has seen his strikeout rate take a hit this year (7.7k/9, career 8.59 k/9) but his walk numbers have been right around his average (2.03 bb/9, career 1.78 bb/9). The reduced strikeout rate has led to some below-average peripherals for him (4.34 FIP).
Yankees pitchers are holding opposing hitters to a .134 BA (9-for-67) with runners in scoring position since the All-Star break. Their.237 opponents’ BA with RISP is fourth-lowest in the Majors.
- Runs: 5.78
- Hits: 9.20
- Walks: 3.74
- Strike Outs: 8.83
- Runs: 4.40
- Hits: 8.48
- Walks: 3.03
- Strike Outs: 9.36
Why Bet on Boston?
This is the latest these rivals will play their 1st game in Boston since 1981 (9/18). The first 5 meetings of 2019 were played in the Bronx, followed by 2 games in London on 6/29 & 6/30.
The Sox might have to put good-looking rookie infielder Michael Chavis on the injured list as he’s dealing with a back injury. Chavis has just a .520 OPS over his last 10 games, so perhaps a little break wouldn’t be the worst thing. Boston got back first baseman Mitch Moreland on Tuesday. Moreland missed almost exactly six weeks because of his lingering quad injury. The veteran was sporting a .859 OPS with 13 homers and 34 RBI in his 47 games before getting hurt.
Sox starter Rick Porcello (8-7) allowed six earned runs on 11 hits and a walk while striking out four across five innings to earn the win Saturday against the Orioles. Porcello didn’t pitch well, surrendering two home runs and four additional extra-base hits. However, the Red Sox scored 17 runs, helping him to his eighth win of the campaign. That shouldn’t mask Porcello’s poor showings of late as he’s allowed four or more earned runs in five consecutive starts. As a result, he has a bloated 5.61 ERA and 1.46 WHIP across 110.2 innings for the season.
The Red Sox need to find a way to get the veteran righty back on track. Though Porcello is 3-1 in his last five starts, he has a 10.57 ERA over that span. Porcello’s last start against the Yankees was a rough outing on June 29 in London, when he retired just one batter and gave up six runs.
Porcello has made 10 starts at Fenway this season and is 5-4 with a 4.29 ERA (30 ER/63.0 IP). The Sox are 6-4 in those games. In his last start at Fenway, he received 10 runs of support vs. Toronto after receiving a total of 3 runs of support combined in 3 prior starts at the venue. In 9 career starts against the Yankees at Fenway he is 5-3 with a 1.21 ERA (8 ER/59.2 IP). He’s allowed 1 ER or fewer in 7 of those starts.
- Runs: 5.69
- Hits: 9.71
- Walks: 3.84
- Strike Outs: 8.31
- Runs: 5.12
- Hits: 8.80
- Walks: 3.44
- Strike Outs: 10.14
Yankees vs Red Sox MLB Week 17 Betting Trends
- Over is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings in Boston
- Yankees are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings
- Red Sox are 4-1 in Porcello’s last 5 home starts vs. Yankees
- Yankees are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games against an opponent in the American League
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees’ last 7 games on the road
- Red Sox are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games played on a Thursday
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Boston’s last 10 games at home
Expert Final Score Prediction for Yankees vs Red Sox
New York Yankees 6 – Boston Red Sox 5