It’s easy to look at the current standings in the race for the championship in MotoGP and see a bit of a landslide.
While the lead at the top is a comfortable one, you also need to remember that we are only 5 races deep into the 2024 season.
MotoGP Favorites | |
| 1. Jorge Martin | 129 points |
| 2. Francesco Bagnaia | 91 points |
| 3. Marc Marquez | 59 points |
| 4. Enea Bastianini | 89 points |
My Analysis
There are some other numbers to consider, but we will get into all of that in a moment once we look at the potential favorites for this weekend. The next race up on the schedule is the Grand Premi Monster Energy de Catalunya, and we can only hope that it’s as thrilling as the weekend we saw in France in the previous Grand Prix. We will find out soon enough, but for now, let’s take a look at the current top 4 in the MotoGP rider standings.
^Jorge Martin
As we mentioned at the top of this piece, Martin had a nice lead at the top of the championship standings. That lead currently sits at 38 points, so let’s out that into some perspective. Martin could choose to sit things out this weekend, which isn’t going to happen, or fail to finish and pick up zero points. If any of those things were to happen, Martin would still have the lead, regardless of whom picked up the win. He has won 2 of the 5 races this season, and he looks like a good bet to do it again this weekend. He landed on the podium in each of his last 2 rides in this race.
^Francesco Bagnaia
We promised to add some perspective on the current points total for each driver, so let’s do it here. Bagnaia came into this season looking for a three-peat and he is still very much in the hunt despite being 38 points out of the lead. When he won his first title in 2022, he had to close a 91-point gap. When you consider that there are only a maximum of 25 points up for grabs, you get an idea of how he is unlikely to be panicking at the moment. This has not been a good track for Bagnaia, though, as he has failed to pick up points in this race in each of the last 2 seasons.
^Marc Marquez
There was a time when Marquez was about as close as unbeatable as it gets in the world of MotoGP. In the 10-year stretch between 2010 and 2019, Marquez won no less than 8 world championships. He has been on a drought, but it has been injuries as opposed to poor form that have stopped him from winning another championship Could he be in the mix again this season? Well, as it stands now, he is currently tied for 3rd and 40 points out of the lead. He has had back-to-back 2nd place finishes and has also had some real success on this track. Look out for him this weekend.
^Enea Bastianini
Bastianini is right there on the same points total as Marquez as he looks to recover the form that saw him finish 3rd overall a couple of years back. Bastianini has not been worse than 5th in each of the 5 races this season, but if he wants to take a serious run at a World Championship, he is going to need to start picking up some checkered flags. His best finish in this race, though is 10th, so top 5 might be the best I would be willing to go here.
^MyBookie | MotoGP Odds
Classic last lap #Moto3 madness in Barcelona last year! 🤯#CatalanGP 🏁 pic.twitter.com/nvMHl0IdQT
— MotoGP™🏁 (@MotoGP) May 22, 2024
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2023 MotoGP Barcelona-Catalunya
We are at the midway point of the season in MotoGP, with 10 races in the books and 10 more still to come. What may be surprising to some is that the current odds to win the MotoGP World Championship are very heavily in the favor of the current leader, Francesco Bagnaia, who is in at odds of -1587 to win it all for the second straight season. He certainly looks to be in control, but a lot can happen over the course of 10 races. That said, if the championship battle is to go all the way down to the wire, some other racer has to make a move in the coming weeks. The first opportunity to do that comes this weekend in Barcelona. Will Bagnaia increase his lead at the top or will someone start to close the gap?
MotoGP Betting Analysis for Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya | 2023 MotoGP Race Lines
When: Sunday, September 3 at 1:30 pm ET
Where: Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya
TV / Streaming: NBC
Francesco Bagnaia
MotoGP World Championship Winner Odds: -1587
There is a very definite reason why Bagnaia is in as such a heavy favorite to win the championship again this season. Through the opening 10 races of the season, Bagnaia has won 5 times and landed on the podium in 2 other races. He has 251 points right now, which has him 62 points up on the nearest racer. That is not an insurmountable lead, but you also have to think that Bagnaia would need to get very cold in the second half of the season, which seems unlikely when you consider that he won 5 races in the second half of last season. He has not been great in this race, though, so perhaps the door is open for another racer.
Jorge Martin
MotoGP World Championship Winner Odds: +1125
The closest racer to Bagnaia is Martin, and while he is still very much in striking distance, he needs to find a way to start winning races. That is a task that is easier said than done, especially since Martin only has 1 win in the 2023 season. He has had a couple of podium finishes besides that win, but he has not really done much of late to suggest that he might make a big move over the next few weeks. In fact, he has finished outside the top 5 in each of the past 2 races, but he did finish 2nd in this race last season, so he may be worth the risk.
Marco Bezzecchi
MotoGP World Championship Winner Odds: +1450
I believe that if any racer can make a second half run, it would have to be Bezzecchi. He has already won twice this season and has been on the podium in 3 other races, so he has certainly made a habit of staying close to the leaders throughout. No matter what happens from this point forward, you do have to say that this has been a breakout season for Bezzecchi, who finished 14th overall last season in his first year in MotoGP. He was forced to retire in Barcelona last season, but he could be a good top 5 bet this weekend.
Brad Binder
MotoGP World Championship Winner Odds: +4200
There is a bit of a gap between the top 3 and the rest of the racers at this level, with Binder sitting 20+ points back of 3rd place right now. He is a definite longshot to get into the championship race, as well as to win this weekend, as he has still yet to win a race in this his 4th full season with MotoGP. Realistically, he is probably hoping to crack the top 3 overall, which would be seen as a solid finish.
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