Are the Warriors a Safe NBA Betting Pick vs. the Bucks on Friday?

Posted by Michael Hunt on Friday,January 12, 2018 8:20, EST in

For whatever reason, the Golden State Warriors have had trouble in Milwaukee in their lone visit the past couple of seasons. The Dubs start a challenging five-game road trip in Beer Town on Friday night and are likely to be short-handed. That will affect the NBA betting odds.

Golden State at Milwaukee NBA Betting Pick & Prediction

When: Friday, 8 PM ET
Where:  Bradley Center, Milwaukee
TV: EESPN
Stream: WatchESPN
Radio: 95.7 FM (Golden State) / 620 WTMJ (Milwaukee)
NBA Betting Odds: Warriors -4.5 (222)

Last Season

The meeting in Milwaukee last season saw the Warriors escape with a 124-121 victory. Draymond Green tipped away an inbounds pass with 10.1 seconds left and Klay Thompson secured the loose ball before hitting two critical foul shots. Kevin Durant scored 33 points, while Thompson had 25 of his 29 in the second half. Giannis Antetokounmpo finished with 30 points, while Jabari Parker had 28.

In Oakland, the Warriors rolled 117-92. Stephen Curry scored 28 points with six 3-pointers, Green added eight points, eight rebounds and 10 assists, and Thompson scored 21 points. Malcolm Brogdon scored 18 points while Greg Monroe had 12 points with seven rebounds for Milwaukee. Monroe is no longer with the Bucks.

The Warriors have won three straight games and seven of the last eight games overall in this series. Milwaukee’s one win in its last eight games against Golden State came on 12/12/15 when the Bucks ended the Warriors’ historic 24-0 start to the 2015-16 season.

Why Bet on Golden State?

The Dubs never lose back-to-back games and they are off a shocking 126-106 home loss to the Clippers on Wednesday. Kevin Durant (right calf strain) returned from a two-game absence with 40 points on stellar 14-of-18 shooting. In the process, he became the 44th player in NBA history to score at least 20,000 points and the second-youngest (LeBron James). The Warriors fell apart when he was off the court, though.

Steph Curry and Klay Thompson both missed the game. Curry slipped and tweaked his ankle at shootaround Wednesday but the Warriors don’t seem overly concerned about the ankle tweak. Still, he seems rather unlikely here. Thompson simply got the night off.

That Clippers game marked only the third time Curry and Thompson both missed the same game this season. The Warriors fell to 0-3 all-time when both Splash Brothers are out. No Warriors player has played in all 42 games this season. The Warriors have used 14 different starting lineups this season; they used a total of 14 different starting lineups during the 2016-17 regular season.

As noted, this begins the Warriors’ 5-game road trip and is the 1st game of the Warriors’ 9th back-to-back set of the season. Golden State has the best record in the NBA (33-9, .786) and its 17 road wins are the most in the league. The Warriors are ranked first in scoring, assists per game, blocks per game, field goal percentage, 3-point field goal percentage and free throw percentage.

The Dubs’ 10-game road winning streak is the longest of the season and is tied for the 2nd-longest road win streak in Warriors franchise history behind the 14-game road winning streak set in 2015-16. This season, the Warriors have an 8-0 record in games following a loss. Under Steve Kerr, the Warriors have lost consecutive games only six times.

Team Statistics

Offense:

  • Average Score For: 115.81
  • Field Goals: 50.80%
  • Three Points: 39.11%
  • Free Throws: 81.33%
  • Rebounds: 44.71

Defense:

  • Average Score Against: 106.60
  • Field Goals: 43.60%
  • Three Points: 36.38%
  • Free Throws: 75.31%
  • Rebounds: 42.05%

Why Bet on Milwaukee?

The Bucks beat the Orlando Magic 110-103 on Wednesday. Giannis Antetokounmpo ended up with 26 points, seven rebounds, an assist and a blocked shot. Antetokounmpo led the Bucks in scoring for the 30th time this season. It was Antetokounmpo’s 16th game of 2017-18 where he’s scored 20 or more points while shooting at least 60.0 percent from the field, which is tied with LeBron James for the most such games in the NBA this season.

John Henson recorded his fifth double-double of the season, and second in his last three games, with 14 points and 10 rebounds against the Magic. Henson has scored in double figures in a season-high-tying three consecutive games. Khris Middleton posted 22 points with five rebounds and four assists. Middleton is working on a string of 22 consecutive games with at least 12 points. Malcolm Brogdon connected for 14 points, nine rebounds and seven assists.

Jabari Parker (knee) is about a month away from returning to action. “He’s doing great,” head coach Jason Kidd said. “Again, he’s doing everything; he’s practicing, he’s participating with the Herd. So, he’s getting a lot of basketball under his belt. Again, I think we’re about a month away from having him back.” Parker has already been cleared for full-contact 5-on-5, but the Bucks are being cautious.

Milwaukee enters this game with a 12-5 record against the Western Conference, including a perfect 4-0 mark against the Pacific Division so far this season. The Bucks’ 12 wins against teams from the Western Conference are tied with Boston and Washington for the most by an Eastern Conference team.

Team Statistics

Offense:

  • Average Score For: 105.97
  • Field Goals: 48.70%
  • Three Points: 35.11%
  • Free Throws: 76.59%
  • Rebounds: 38.60

Defense:

  • Average Score Against: 106.32
  • Field Goals: 47.08%
  • Three Points: 38.30%
  • Free Throws: 76.76%
  • Rebounds: 41.50

Latest NBA Betting Trends

  • Golden State is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
  • Golden State is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State’s last 5 games
  • Milwaukee is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
  • Milwaukee is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 15 of Milwaukee’s last 20 games

Expert NBA Betting Prediction

If Curry plays, take the Warriors. Otherwise, go with Milwaukee.