NBA’s Best Bet The Over Teams

Posted by Joe Solari on February 5, 2016 in

If you are looking for the best teams to bet on in the OVER NBA lines, you are definitely in the right place, as the analysis below gives an NBA betting overview of some of the top OVER total betting teams. For the franchises you will be seeing in this list, one or a combination of the following factors is true for them; the team has a good offense, the team has a bad defense, the team has a good offense and bad defense, or the team is middling in both offense and defense. Keeping these key tenets in mind, let’s get to the list, shall we?

NBA’s Best Bet The Over Teams

Golden State Warriors, 29-20-0 OVER Betting Record (59.2%, No. 1 in NBA)

The case of the Warriors is one that all of you are probably familiar with. The Warriors have been the best team in the nation—by far—and that has been largely because of their NBA-best offense that is averaging 115.4 points per game, along with nation-best offensive averages such as .491 FG% and .430 3PT % (the only team shooting above 40 percent from beyond the arc).

In their last game, the Warriors dropped 134 points in the 13-point win over the Washington Wizards at Verizon Center, led by a 51-point night by reigning and presumptive league MVP Stephen Curry. Chef Curry, who will be starting for the Western Conference team in the All-Star Game and will also be participating in the three-point shooting contest, has been on absolute tear on the year, averaging an NBA-best 29.8 points to go with 6.4 assists, 5.3 rebounds and 2.17 steals in 47 games for the Warriors. He is also having his most efficient year, hitting career highs of 51.1 percent from the field and 45.8 percent from three-point range (tied for third-best in the NBA), while leading the NBA in three-point field goals for a fourth consecutive season, with 232 made threes so far.

Curry has not been doing it alone, though, as he’s been getting formidable support from fellow splash brother Klay Thompson and do-all teammate Draymond Green, both of whom will join Curry in the All-Star weekend.

Thompson, who will make his second career appearance in the All-Star Game, has also been having a remarkable season, ranking behind only Curry with 155 three-point field goals, while sporting averages of 21.5 points, a career-high 3.8 rebounds and 2.3 assists in 32.7 minutes over 47 games this year. The fifth-year guard has particularly elevated his play since the start of December, averaging 24.7 points per game, something that will be crucial for his team down the stretch.

Then, of course, there is Green, whose appearance at the All-Star Weekend will be the first in his career. The fourth-year forward is having a career for the ages, leading the league with 10 triple-doubles and flirting with a triple-double line in his season averages, sporting career highs of 14.5 points, 9.5 rebounds and 7.4 assists in 34.2 minutes over 48 games this season. Green is also hitting career highs of 48.9 percent from the field and 41.9 percent from three-point range.

Going by the numbers of this trio, along with knowledge of the depth in the rest of Golden State’s starting five and bench, it comes as no surprise that the Warriors have been lighting up scoreboards. It also helps in the OVER lines that the Warriors are allowing 102.7 PPG, which has been able to push up the totals in their games.

Houston Rockets, 30-21-0 OVER Betting Record (58.8%, No. 2)

For the Rockets, their tendency to pay OVER bettors is based on the fact that they have a solid offense along with a leaky defense. In the offense, the production has been balanced, but guards James Harden and Patrick Beverly, who will both participate in the All-Star Weekend, are the most noteworthy players.

Harden, who will be making his fourth-straight All-Star Game, is averaging 27.9 points, 7.1 assists, 6.2 rebounds and is reportedly on pace to become the seventh different player in NBA history to average at least 27 points, 7 assists and 6 rebounds in a season. He also ranks third in the NBA in total 3-pointers made with 140, a key reason he will also be participating in the three-point contest in the All-Star weekend. The exuberant bearded superstar–who is dating one of the Kardashian sisters–has been on a tear in the past 31 games, where he is shooting 39.8% from 3-point range (including 45.1% over his last 10 games).

Beverly, who will be looking to defend his title in the Taco Bell Skills Challenge in the All-Star weekend, is averaging 9.2 points, 3.0 rebounds and 2.6 assists while impressively shooting 42.8% from 3-point range (good for 9th in the NBA) after shooting just 36.1% from the three-line in his first three seasons combined.

As a team, the Rockets rank fourth-best in the NBA with 105.3 points scored per game (interestingly averaging 105 PPG both at home and on the road), while owning a decent .446 FG% to go along with 11.0 three-pointers per game (second only to Golden State’s 13.0). Unfortunately for them, they are allowing more points per game (106.5) and also allowing more field goals (.467 %), which is the main reason they’ve been struggling to win games.

Denver Nuggets 27-21-2 OVER Betting Record (56.2%, No. 3)

While the Nuggets do have All-Star representations, led by Will Barton, their season has been far from a stable one. One minute, they are playing good offense and defense, the next they are struggling on both ends of the floor. Essentially, that’s the reason they are averaging just 100.1 points offensively (20th in the nation) while giving up 103.6 points per game (22nd in the nation), and are languishing with a pathetic 19-31 win-loss record, placed 4th in Northwest Division. But then again, unless you are a Denver fan, that shouldn’t worry you much; all that matters is that the Nuggets are good OVER betting picks and that’s all you should be concerned with.

Washington Wizards 25-20-2 OVER Betting Record (55.6%, No. 4)

Like Houston, the Wizards are their own enemies, as they are scoring well, but less than what they’ve been giving up to opponents. In their Wednesday loss to Golden State, for instance, they scored an impressive 121 points at home, led by Paul Wall’s double-double of 41 points and 10 assists. In spite of that, they still lost to the Warriors, giving up 134 points, with their defense having no solutions to Curry’s 50-point show. The biggest problem is, of course in the defense, where Washington is tied for 21st in defensive efficiency (105.6 PPG allowed, .471 opponent FG%) after Wednesday’s loss, per’s stats tool. This is a big regression, considering the Wizards have been known for playing stout defense in the last two seasons—finishing tied for ninth in defensive efficiency in 2014 and fifth in 2015. So, even with the fantastic Wall continuing to do his thing in the offense and helping the Wizards to average 102.6 PPG (9th-best in the nation) and a field goal percentage of .456; it doesn’t help the team much in terms of wins, unless the team’s agenda for the season was to get as many OVER totals as possible.

Here is a list of ALL the other teams owning OVER betting percentages above 50% and their respective positions.

• Detroit Pistons, 28-23-0 (54.9%, Tied for No. 5)
• Milwaukee Bucks, 28-23-0 (54.9%, Tied for No. 5)
• Memphis Grizzlies, 26-22-1 (54.2%, Tied for No. 7)
• Philadelphia 76ers, 26-22-1 (54.2%, Tied for No. 7)
• Chicago Bulls 25-22-1 (53.2%, No. 9)
• Minnesota Timberwolves 26-23-2 (53.1%, No. 10)
• Phoenix Suns 25-24-1 (51.0%, Tied for No. 11)
• New York Knicks, 26-25-1 (51.0%, Tied for No. 11)
• Atlanta Hawks, 26-25-0 (51.0%, Tied for No. 11)
• Portland Trail Blazers, 25-25-0 (50.0%, Tied for No. 14)
• Cleveland Cavaliers, 24-24-0 (50.0%, Tied for No. 14)
• Toronto Raptors, 24-24-1 (50.0%, Tied for No. 14)
• Orlando Magic, 24-24-0 (50.0%, Tied for No. 14)

NOTE: All the statistics above are accurate as of the morning of Friday, February 05, 2016.