Can Milwaukee Win & Cover the NBA Spread Against Indiana?

Posted by Henry Watkins on Wednesday,January 3, 2018 12:25, EST in

There are two very separate battles taking place in the NBA Eastern Conference right now. There is a trio of teams at the top who have separated from the rest of the pack, with the group sitting below the leaders waged in a fight for the other 5 playoff spots. Right now, there are just 3 ½ games separating 4th from 10th in the Eastern Conference, so it’s a pretty big deal when teams in this group go head to head, which is why reading the NBA spread may be a little more complicated.

The Indiana Pacers are clinging to the final playoff spot in the East, but could easily slip below the line with a win. They will be making a trip to Milwaukee on Wednesday night to face a Bucks team that is currently in 6th, just one game up on the Pacers. It goes without saying that things could get a little tighter with a Pacers win here, but they are going to need to find a way to be better on the road to make that happen. The Bucks are in as a 7 ½ point favorite, with the point total set at 209 ½.

Pacers vs. Bucks NBA Spread & Game Preview

  • When: Wednesday, January 3 at 8 PM EST
  • Where: BMO Harris Bradley Center, Milwaukee
  • TV: FSMW and FSWI
  • Radio: 103.3 FM (Indiana) / 620 AM (Milwaukee)
  • Live Stream: NBA League Pass
  • NBA Spread: Milwaukee Bucks -7.5 (Over/Under at 210 points)

Team Records

  • All: Indiana Pacers 19-18 / Milwaukee Bucks 19-16
  • Home: Indiana Pacers 11-9 / Milwaukee Bucks 12-6
  • Away: Indiana Pacers 8-9 / Milwaukee Bucks 7-10
  • As Favorite: Indiana Pacers 11-3 / Milwaukee Bucks 14-7
  • As Underdog: Indiana Pacers 8-15 / Milwaukee Bucks 5-9
  • ATS: Indiana Pacers 20-17 / Milwaukee Bucks 16-16-3
  • Over/Under: Indiana Pacers 16-20-1 / Milwaukee Bucks 23-12

Top NBA Betting Pick & Predictions of the Week – January 2nd Edition

Recent Head to Head (Last 10 Games)

  • Record: Tied 5-5
  • Score: Indiana Pacers 105.20 / Milwaukee Bucks 104.00
  • Field Goal Percentage: Indiana Pacers 48.19 / Milwaukee Bucks 47.19
  • Rebounds: Indiana Pacers 37.90 / Milwaukee Bucks 41.10
  • 3 Point Shots: Indiana Pacers 81-200 / Milwaukee Bucks 102-244
  • Steals: Indiana Pacers 9.60 / Milwaukee Bucks 9.90

Why bet on the Indiana Pacers?

The Indiana Pacers are staying above the playoff line by the skin of their teeth, 1 game above .500, but just a single game up on the teams below the line. The one thing that the Pacers have going for them right now is that they have been decent against other teams in the Eastern Conference, going 14-10 in those games. If this team is to continue to hold a playoff spot, they need to find a way to get better on the road, where they are currently a game below .500.

The only way to move up is to beat the teams above them, which also means improving on their record against teams with winning records. The Pacers are just 8-14 against that group of teams. Indiana is a decent ATS bet when playing on the road, where they are currently 10-7. This will be their first meeting of the season against the Bucks, but last years was not good, with the Pacers losing 3 of 4 to Milwaukee. The Pacers are coming into this one on a 4-game losing skid.

Team Statistics

Offense

  • Total Score: 106.97
  • Field Goal Percentage: 47.61
  • Three-Point Percentage: 38.57
  • Free Throw Percentage: 77.23
  • Total Rebounds: 42.00

Defense

  • Total Score: 107.3
  • Field Goal Percentage: 46.86
  • Three-Point Percentage: 36.83
  • Free Throw Percentage: 73.69
  • Total Rebounds: 43.27

Why bet on the Milwaukee Bucks?

The Milwaukee Bucks are currently occupying the #6 spot in the Eastern Conference, 3 games above .500 at 19-16. A win here could vault them as high as 4th, while a loss could drag them a little closer to the playoff line. The Bucks are where they are right now largely because of how tough they have been to take out at home, where they are currently 12-6. Milwaukee is not playing particularly good ball at the moment, having gone 4-6 in their last 10 games.

The Bucks are favored by the NBA Spread against the Pacers.

As good as the Bucks have been SU at home, they have not been able to translate that to cover the spread on a consistent basis. At home, the Bucks are just 5-9-4 against the NBA Spread. They have been involved in a lot of high-scoring games, and have seen their O/U record for the season go to 23-12. The Bucks are 11-7 O/U in home games this season.

Team Statistics

Offense

  • Total Score: 105.46
  • Field Goal Percentage: 48.19
  • Three-Point Percentage: 35.32
  • Free Throw Percentage: 76.40
  • Total Rebounds: 38.77

Defense

  • Total Score: 105.94
  • Field Goal Percentage: 46.63
  • Three-Point Percentage: 39.36
  • Free Throw Percentage: 76.38
  • Total Rebounds: 42.26

Latest NBA Betting Trends

  • Pacers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on the road
  • Pacers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana’s last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
  • Bucks are 2-4-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against Indiana
  • Bucks are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 13 of Milwaukee’s last 15 games

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

I like the Bucks to pick up the win here, but I’m not convinced that they will be able to cover the NBA spread of 7.5 points. I do believe that the point total will creep just OVER.

Score: Indiana Pacers 104 – Milwaukee Bucks 107