Grizzlies at Nuggets Friday Night NBA Spread & Analysis

Grizzlies at Nuggets Friday Night NBA Spread & Analysis

Written by on January 12, 2018

The Denver Nuggets have been one of the better home teams in the NBA this season at 14-5 but come off a puzzling defeat there. The Nuggets are solid NBA spread favorites, however, to bounce back Friday night when the struggling Memphis Grizzlies are in town.

Grizzlies at Nuggets Friday Night NBA Spread & Analysis

When: Friday, 9 PM ET
Where: Pepsi Center, Denver
TV: NBA League Pass, ALT
Stream: NBA League Pass
Radio: 680 AM (Memphis) / AM 950 (Denver)
NBA Odds: Nuggets -7.5 (207)

Season Series

Teams have met just once so far, a 104-92 Denver home win on Nov. 24. Nikola Jokic scored 14 of his 28 points in the fourth quarter and had 13 rebounds and eight assists. Gary Harris and Jamal Murray added 15 points apiece, and Kenneth Faried had 14. JaMychal Green had 21 points for the Grizzlies in their seventh loss in a row at the time. Marc Gasol and Tyreke Evans scored 15 points apiece for the Grizzlies. It was Memphis’ first loss in its last five games in Denver. The Grizzlies didn’t have star point guard Mike Conley then and still don’t due to injury.

Latest NBA Betting Trends

  • Memphis is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Memphis is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Memphis’s last 6 games
  • Denver is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Denver is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Denver’s last 10 games

Why Bet on Memphis’ NBA Spread?

The Grizzlies have been terrible without Conley but do come off a rare win, 105-102 over the visiting Pelicans on Wednesday. The Grizzlies held New Orleans to nine points in the third period and then forced a key turnover by DeMarcus Cousins in the final seven seconds. With New Orleans trailing 103-102, Cousins headed to the lane, but had the ball knocked away by Marc Gasol. Tyreke Evans, who was fouled immediately after the turnover converted a pair of free throws with 5.9 seconds left.

Evans scored 28 points, while Gasol finished with 21 points and 10 rebounds for Memphis. JaMychal Green contributed 20 points and 14 rebounds — one off his season high in both categories. Guard Andrew Harrison, who missed the last game with a left shoulder injury, returned against New Orleans and started. He finished with 11 points. Harrison is only playing because Conley’s out.

Conley (left Achilles) went through a 3-on-3 scrimmage after Thursday’s practice. Conley has taken part in limited contract drills for at least the past week, but he remains without a clear timetable to return — he hasn’t played since getting hurt on Nov. 13. Forward Chandler Parsons doesn’t have structural damage in his right knee, but he will not play vs. the Nuggets. He’s day-to-day but the swelling and soreness in his knee has dissipated.

Memphis is averaging 110.4 points (.473 FG/.413 3P) in its last five games (3‐2 record) and is averaging 109.1 points in its last eight games (4‐4 record) after scoring only 93.4 points in its previous 19 contests (2‐17 record).

Team Statistics

Offense:

  • Average Score For: 99.07
  • Field Goals: 44.39%
  • Three Points: 35.04%
  • Free Throws: 78.81%
  • Rebounds: 40.05

Defense:

  • Average Score Against: 102.38
  • Field Goals: 45.33%
  • Three Points: 37.74%
  • Free Throws: 76.79%
  • Rebounds: 42.12

Why Bet on Denver’s NBA Spread?

The Nuggets were 10-point home favorites Wednesday but were upset 110-97 at home vs. Atlanta, their third straight loss (first two on road). The Hawks had lost 10 straight on the road and were at the end of a long road trip. They never trailed after the first quarter. Denver had won 11 of 13 home games since early November and now has its first three-game losing streak of the season.

Gary Harris had 25 points but was the only Denver player to shoot well from the field. He’s averaging 22.6 points and 2.6 3-pointers, and is shooting 62 percent over his last five games. Nikola Jokic had nine points, 12 rebounds and seven assists but was 4-of-21 shooting and missed all eight of his 3-pointers. Denver finished 9 of 37 from 3-point range.

Are the Nuggets a safe bet on Friday night?

All-Star forward Paul Millsap (left wrist surgery) had his cast removed on Tuesday. Millsap still isn’t expected back until after the All-Star break, but this is a small step in the right direction. He was the team’s big free-agent signing this past offseason.

The Nuggets have been playing better on defense of late, that Atlanta game notwithstanding. Over their last 15 games, Denver is holding their opponents to just 103.6 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field and 34.5% from beyond the arc.  Over his last 25 games, Trey Lyles is posting averages of 14.0 points, 6.4 rebounds and 1.2 assists while shooting 54% (129-241 FG) from the field and 47% (48-102 3FG) from three-point range in 25.6 minutes per game.

Denver is 17-3 this season when outshooting their opponent and 7-1 when shooting 50%-or-better from the field. Denver is 11-2 this season when holding their opponent to under 100 points.

Team Statistics

Offense:

  • Average Score For: 107.32
  • Field Goals: 46.46%
  • Three Points: 36.32%
  • Free Throws: 74.24%
  • Rebounds: 45.02

Defense:

  • Average Score Against: 106.12
  • Field Goals: 47.42%
  • Three Points: 37.07%
  • Free Throws: 75.52%
  • Rebounds: 41.12

Expert Prediction & NBA Betting Pick

Nuggets bounce back and cover that NBA spread.