Miami vs Charlotte NBA Playoff Series Betting Analysis

Posted by Eric Williams on Friday,April 15, 2016 10:48, EST in

The Miami Heat may be seeded third in the Eastern Conference playoffs, but they’ll take on a sixth-seeded Charlotte Hornets team that both – caught fire in the second half of the regular season – and finished with an identical 48-34 record as Miami. Thanks to the expert pro basketball playoff odds analysis you’re about to get, you’re going to be able to make the most out of your wagers on both championship-hopeful ballclubs. Okay, let’s get started.

Heat vs Hornets NBA Playoff Series Betting Analysis

Why Bet On The No. 6 Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets (48-34 SU, 42-39 ATS) ranked 11th in scoring (103.4 ppg) and 27th in field goal shooting percentage (43.9 %) while also ranking eighth in three-point shooting percentage (36.2 %), fifth in free throw shooting percentage (79.0 %) and 14th in rebounding (43.9 rpg).

Defensively, Charlotte ranked an impressive ninth in points allowed (100.7 ppg) while also finishing 12th in defensive field goal percentage (44.3 %), 14th in three-point defense (34.9 %), and 25th in rebounds allowed (44.7 rpg).

The Hornets went 30-11 SU and 21-19-1 ATS at home during the regular season and 18-23 SU and 21-20 ATS on the road.

Why Bet On The No. 3 Miami Heat

The Heat (48-34 SU, 43-38 ATS) ranked 23rd in scoring (100.7 ppg) and a stellar fourth in field goal shooting percentage (47.0 %) while also ranking 27th in three-point shooting percentage (33.6 %), 23rd in free throw shooting percentage (74.4 %) and 13th in rebounding (44.1 rpg).

Defensively, Miami ranked a stupendous fifth in points allowed (98.4 ppg) while also finishing ninth in defensive field goal percentage (44.2 %), 12th in three-point defense (34.7 %), and sixth in defensive rebounding (41.3 rpg).

The Heat went 28-13 SU and 23-17-1 ATS at home during the regular season and 20-21 SU and ATS on the road.

My Series Analysis and Expert Pick

While this first round series figures to be a thriller between the two very evenly matched teams the Heat and Hornets are, I believe the Miami Heat are the right pick to come out on top, but just barely. The Heat and Hornets split the regular season series at 2-2 with both teams going 2-2 ATS along the way, but it is Miami that has the edge in experience and leadership, thanks mostly to Dwyane Wade and veteran role players that have succeeded in the playoffs in the past like Luol Deng and Joe Johnson,

While the Hornets won’t be easily dispatched and have a nice core group of players that includes, the aforementioned Kemba Walker (20.9 ppg), Nicolas Batum (14.9 ppg), Al Jefferson (12.0 ppg) and veterans like Jeremy Lin (11.7 ppg) and Marvin Williams (11.7 ppg) I think Miami has the big edge when they go to their bench with players like Deng, Gerald Green, Amar’e Stoudemire, Josh McRoberts and rookies like Justice Winslow and the blossoming Josh Richardson.

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The Hornets also won’t be able to keep D-Wade from being the best player in this series, nor will they have an answer for the active and super-athletic Hassan Whiteside down low. The Hornets may be 3-1-1 ATS in the last five road games against Miami, but Charlotte is also just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against teams from the Southeast Division while Miami has compiled a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six home games and blistering 19-7 ATS mark in their last 26 games against teams from the Eastern Conference.

I like the Heat to get past the Hornets, possibly in six games, but more likely, seven!