Kings vs Nuggets NBA Betting Odds & Expert Preview

Kings vs Nuggets NBA Betting Odds & Expert Preview

Written by on February 13, 2019

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets will look to tame De’Aaron Fox and the visiting Sacramento Kings when the two Western Conference rivals square off in a mid-week matchup on Wednesday night live from the  Pepsi Center in Denver.

Can Jokic and the Nuggets get the win and ATS cover or are Fox and the Kings the pick to get either the outright upset or ATS cover as a solid 8-point road dog?

Let’s find out right now.

Kings vs Nuggets NBA Betting Odds & Expert Preview

Why Bet On Sacramento at +8?

Why should you consider betting on Sacramento in this mid-week matchup? Because the mostly young Kings are clearly improving and playing their best basketball of the season right now. Sacramento has won two straight and five of their last six games overall while beating the likes of Philadelphia and San Antonio along the way. The Kings come into this contest off a convincing 117-104 smackdown of Phoenix on Sunday that saw rookie forward Marvin Bagley III put up a season-high 32 points and five other players reached double figures in scoring in the win.

“We have this goal in our heads about getting to the playoffs and it’s getting close right now,” Bagley told reporters of his team, which is tied for eighth in the Western Conference. “Every game matters. I’m excited, after we get done with this next game, how we come back from break and see where we can go from there.”

Another good reason to back Sacramento is the fact that the Kings have the higher scoring offense in this one as they put up 113.3 points per game to rank an encouraging ninth in scoring. Last but not least, the Kings have some really nice up-and-coming talent, including Bagley II, point guard De’Aaron Fox, center Willie Cauley-Stein and the vastly improved Buddy Hield, who averages a team-high 20.4 points per game.

Team Statistics

Offense:
  • Average Score For: 113.32
  • Field Goals: 46.60%
  • Three Points: 37.87%
  • Free Throws: 71.07%
  • Rebounds: 45.04
Defense:
  • Average Score Against: 114.54
  • Field Goals: 46.32%
  • Three Points: 34.12%
  • Free Throws: 76.83%
  • Rebounds: 48.16

Why Bet On Denver at -8?

Why should you consider betting on Denver in this mid-week matchup? First, the Nuggets are playing at home where they’ve gone a blistering, league-best 24-4 so far this season, not to mention the fact that Sacramento is just 11-15 on the road.  Then, there’s the fact that the Nuggets almost assuredly want to hit the all-star break on a positive note after snapping a three-game losing streak by beating Miami 103-87 on Monday.

All-Star center Nikola Jokic and Malik Beasley each scored a team-high 23 points in the win while reserve guard Monte Morris added 17 points off the bench.

“We were tired of losing, three in a row, and coach wasn’t too happy about it,” Morris said afterward. “We just needed to get back to our old style, our old Nuggets basketball, flying around and covering for mistakes.

Last but not least, the Nuggets have an elite defense that limits the opposition to 106.9 points per game to rank an encouraging sixth in points allowed.

Team Statistics

Offense:
  • Average Score For: 111.84
  • Field Goals: 47.20%
  • Three Points: 35.62%
  • Free Throws: 75.55%
  • Rebounds: 46.21
Defense:
  • Average Score Against: 106.89
  • Field Goals: 46.06%
  • Three Points: 34.70%
  • Free Throws: 75.32%
  • Rebounds: 41.79

Kings vs Nuggets NBA Betting Trends

  • Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games
  • Sacramento is 5-1 SU in the last 6 games
  • The total went UNDER in 14 of Sacramento’s last 17 games
  • Denver is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 games at home
  • Denver is 17-7 SU in the last 24 games
  • The total went OVER in 10 of Denver’s last 15 games

Expert Analysis and Prediction

I know the Kings are an uninspiring 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games against a team with a winning record, but Sacramento has also gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 100 points or more and a bankroll-boosting 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

I know Denver has gone 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games, but the Nuggets are also just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 against their Western Conference counterparts and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Head to head, the over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Denver, the Kings are 1-7 ATS in the last eight meetings overall and 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings in Denver.

I really like the way Sacramento is playing right now and I believe the young and hungry Kings are going to find a way to keep this one closer than the 8-point spread. I’m going with Denver to get the outright win, simply because they’ve been so good at home this season, but I’m going with Sacramento to cover the chalk.

NBA Betting Pick: Denver 111 Sacramento 106

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