Mavericks vs Nuggets NBA Lines, Expert Analysis & Pick

Mavericks vs Nuggets NBA Lines, Expert Analysis & Pick

Written by on March 14, 2019

The Dallas Mavericks take on the Nuggets at the Pepsi Center in Denver on Thursday, March 14. Denver is only a game away from the Golden State Warriors for the top spot in the Western Conference. Dallas is 17.5 games behind the Nuggets. The Mavericks get 11 points in this game, though. Will they cover?

Mavericks vs Nuggets NBA Lines, Expert Analysis & Pick

Why Dallas Mavericks are a good bet +11?

The last time the Dallas Mavericks battled the Denver Nuggets they didn’t come close to winning. In fact, the Mavericks lost by 10 points. However, there was a silver lining in that game.

For starters, Dallas only lost by 10. The line in tomorrow night’s game is 11. Also, Dallas’ best player, Luka Doncic, sat out with an ankle injury. With Doncic scheduled to start on Thursday night, Dallas should be more competitive than they were in the last game. They might not win, but they could cover.

Team StatisticsOffense:
  • Points/G: 107.9
  • Field Goal %: 44.6
  • 3-Point %: 34.1
  • Free Throw %: 73.7
  • Rebounds/G: 45
Defense:
  • Points/G: 109.6
  • Field Goal %: 46
  • 3-Point %: 34.7
  • Free Throw %: 77.1
  • Rebounds/G: 44.4

Why Denver Nuggets are a good bet -11?

Are the Nuggets a safe bet in the NBA odds?

Everyone keeps waiting for the Denver Nuggets to fail. It doesn’t look like they will. Denver is one of the best teams in the NBA, not just in the Western Conference. They’re also one of the few teams in the league that excels against the spread in home games.

The Nuggets are 23-11 ATS at home this season. Even if Doncic suits up, the Nuggets are too talented to allow a team like Dallas to keep it close.

Team Statistics

Offense:
  • Points/G: 112.3
  • Field Goal %: 46.9
  • 3-Point %: 34.835.8
  • Free Throw %: 75.6
  • Rebounds/G: 46.7
Defense:
  • Points/G: 1107.3
  • Field Goal %: 45.9
  • 3-Point %: 34.4
  • Free Throw %: 75.1
  • Rebounds/G: 41.9

NBA Betting Trends for Mavericks vs Nuggets

  • Dallas is 3-9 ATS in the last 12 games
  • Dallas is 0-5 SU in the last 5 games
  • The total went UNDER in 5 of Dallas’s last 7 games
  • Denver is 6-3 ATS in the last 9 games
  • Denver is 15-8 SU in the last 23 games
  • The total went UNDER in 8 of Denver’s last 9 games

Mavericks vs Nuggets Final NBA Betting Analysis

Everything looks to be in Denver’s favor on Thursday night. The Nuggets play well at home, have gone 3-1 ATS in their last 4, and have a massive advantage at the center position with Nikola Jokic.

In the last match between these two, Jokic had 19 points, 13 boards, and 8 assists. He’s a 7 foot center with point-guard passing skills. When Jokic prefers to pass, he often does so to Nuggets’ starting point-guard Jamal Murray, who averages 18.4 points. Jokic and Murray’s inside/outside game is the reason the Nuggets have been awesome this season. That’s also the reason they dominate the Mavericks and cover the spread on Thursday night.

NBA Betting Pick: Denver Nuggets -11