The Denver Nuggets and San Antonio Spurs throw down in a key Game 3 of their best-of-seven first round series on Thursday, April 18. San Antonio won Game 1 while Denver bounced back in Game 2. Will the Spurs use home court advantage to their benefit? Or, will the Nuggets retake the home court advantage? Check out NBA Playoffs betting odds, analysis, and a free pick for Nuggets-Rockets Game 3!
Nuggets vs Spurs Game 3 2019 NBA Playoffs Odds
- When: Thursday, April 18 at 9:00pm ET
- Where: AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
- TV: NBA
- Over/Under Total Odds: 210
Why Denver Nuggets are a good bet at +3 ½
Although the Nuggets lost Game 1, they didn’t play that badly. The Spurs rushed out to a double-digit lead before Denver fought back. At the end, San Antonio beat the Nuggets 101-96. That’s only 5 points.
Denver did a much better job when winning Game 2. At one point in that matchup, the Spurs were up by 10, 59-49, at halftime. Denver dominated the second half, outscoring San Antonio by 19 to win 114-105. Now that Denver knows they can beat the Spurs, they should carry the knowledge into Game 3 and provide an upset moneyline victory.
- Points/G: 110.7
- Field Goal %: 46.6
- 3-Point %: 35.1
- Free Throw %: 75.5
- Rebounds/G: 46.4
- Points/G: 106.7
- Field Goal %: 45.8
- 3-Point %: 33.9
- Free Throw %: 75.3
- Rebounds/G: 42.5
Why San Antonio Spurs are a good bet at -3 ½
San Antonio should probably be up 2-0 in this series. They blew a 10-point lead in Game 2. The Spurs aren’t the type of team to blow leads like that. There’s also the fact that the Spurs play at home where they went 24-17 ATS during the regular season.
It helps San Antonio’s cause that Denver is 2-5 against the spread in the last 7 matchups in San Antonio. Gregg Popovich should make the necessary adjustments for his team to get the win and cover.
- Points/G: 111.7
- Field Goal %: 47.8
- 3-Point %: 39.2
- Free Throw %: 81.9
- Rebounds/G: 44.7
- Points/G: 110.0
- Field Goal %: 46.3
- 3-Point %: 35.9
- Free Throw %: 75.5
- Rebounds/G: 43.9
NBA Playoffs Betting Trends for Denver Nuggets vs San Antonio Spurs
- Nuggets are 1-8 in their last 9 Conference Quarterfinals games
- Nuggets are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 1 days rest
- Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning % above .600
- Spurs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall
- Spurs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the Western Conference
- Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games
Nuggets vs Spurs Game 3 Final Analysis
Neither Denver nor San Antonio appears to have the edge based on trends. Both teams should fail to cover the spread in this one. That won’t happen. This is the NBA Playoffs where the squad that makes the best adjustment ends up winning the series.
San Antonio came out guns blazing in both Game 1 and Game 2. Denver coach Mike Malone made the adjustment from Game 1 to Game 2, but his team didn’t follow through with those adjustments until the second half.
Once they did, they provided an impressive 19-points turnaround victory. After watching both games, it’s difficult to see what adjustments Popovich can make to counter Malone. The Nuggets now have the inside/outside game with Jamal Murray/Gary Harris and Nikola Jokic. Jokic’s such a great passer that if you double him, he’ll get the ball to Harris and Murray for open looks.
Unless Harris and Murry miss their shots, Denver should win Game 3. It’s simple basketball, dump it into your big man, wait for the double-team, find the open guy if the double-team comes, or just go towards the hoop. Simple but effective. Denver wins.
NBA Playoffs Betting Pick: Nuggets moneyline