Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets will look to kick off their post all-star break in style when they hit the road to take on sure-fire Rookie of the Year winner Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks when the two Western Conference rivals square off at American Airlines Center on Friday night.
If you’re ready to find out which team is offering the best value against their odds in our online sportsbook, then let’s get to my expert pick on this matchup right now.
Nuggets vs Mavericks NBA Betting Lines & Betting Preview
A bit of news ahead of tomorrow night’s game against Dallas. pic.twitter.com/1R1iOvp1MY
— Denver Nuggets (@nuggets) 22 de febrero de 2019
Why Bet On Denver at -3.5?
Why should you consider betting on the Nuggets in this contest? There are a bunch of good reasons, starting with the fact that Denver is the statistically better team at both ends of the floor in averaging 112.0 points per game (16th) while limiting the opposition to 107.1 points per contest defensively to rank an impressive eighth in points allowed.
Denver won two straight and eight of their last 11 games prior to the all-star break including a narrow, 120-118 win over Sacramento on Feb 13 that saw veteran forward Paul Millsap put up a team-high 25 points and 13 rebounds while the blossoming Malik Beasley added 21 points and Jokic contributed a triple-double of 20 points, 18 rebounds and 11 assists, including the game-winning tip-in.
Denver will have underrated shooting guard Gary Harris (groin) back on the court for this affair after he missed seven games with an injury.
“He missed three weeks, he missed seven games, so I’m not going to throw him out there for 30 minutes the first game and risk having him hurt,” head coach Mike Malone told reporters of Harris. “(We will) really monitor his minutes these last 25 games so we don’t overextend him, because we don’t want Gary going out again.” Harris is averaging 14.8 points in 32 games and Malone made this declaration: “When Gary Harris is on the court, we’re a much better defensive team.”
Team Statistics
Offense:- Average Score For: 111.98
- Field Goals: 47.17%
- Three Points: 35.45%
- Free Throws: 75.81%
- Rebounds: 46.33
- Average Score Against: 107.09
- Field Goals: 46.04%
- Three Points: 34.69%
- Free Throws: 75.47%
- Rebounds: 41.82
Why Bet On Dallas at +3.5?
Why should you consider backing the Mavericks in this affair? Well, the best reason would be because Dallas is playing at home where they’ve gone an impressive 20-9 SU and 19-9 ATS. Another good reason to back the Mavs is that they’re kind of desperate as they sit in12th place in the Western Conference standings after dropping two straight and three of four prior to the annual all-star break including a 112-101 home loss to Miami on Feb. 13. Dallas averages 108.7 points per game (21st) while allowing an identical 108.7 points per contest defensively (11th).
“We’re going to play these games to win them,” Dallas coach Rick Carlisle told reporters. “We have 25 games left, we want to learn as much as we can, of course, but we’re trying to win. We don’t want to compromise winning to find out if a guy can make a left-handed hook shot over a shot-blocker or anything like that.”
Team Statistics
Offense:- Average Score For: 108.70
- Field Goals: 44.82%
- Three Points: 34.57%
- Free Throws: 74.10%
- Rebounds: 45.56
- Average Score Against: 108.74
- Field Goals: 45.74%
- Three Points: 34.09%
- Free Throws: 76.99%
- Rebounds: 44.02
Nuggets vs Mavericks NBA Betting Trends
- Denver is 1-4 ATS in the last 5 games
- Denver is 8-3 SU in the last 11 games
- The total went OVER in 11 of Denver’s last 16 games
- Dallas is 6-3 ATS in the last 9 games
- Dallas is 18-7 SU in the last 25 games at home
- The total went UNDER in 14 of Dallas’s last 21 games
Expert Analysis and Prediction for Nuggets vs Mavericks
I’m going to get right to the point with my expert pick on this contest by saying that the Denver Nuggets are the easy pick to win and cash in as very manageable 3.5-point road faves. I know the Nuggets have gone an uninspiring 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games against their Western Conference counterparts and just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games while Dallas has gone a near-perfect 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a double-digit loss at home and a scorching 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 home games, but Denver is the better team all the way around in this affair and they’ve definitely got a ton to play for. I’m going to advise you to make the simple pick for the Nuggets to win and cover.
NBA Betting Pick: Denver 111 Dallas 105
