Nuggets at Warriors Monday Night NBA Odds & Expert Pick

Posted by Jordan Walters on Monday,January 8, 2018 7:58, EDT in

We know Golden State will make the playoffs as the Warriors are clearly the NBA’s best team and have the shortest title odds at MyBookie to bring home a third championship in four seasons. The Denver Nuggets haven’t made the postseason since 2013 but could be a potential first-round opponent for the Dubs. Those two square off in Oakland on Monday night and the Warriors will be sizable betting favorites in the NBA odds.

Nuggets at Warriors Monday Night NBA Odds & Expert Pick

When: Monday, 10:30 PM ET
Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland
TV: NBA League Pass, ALT, CSNB
Stream: NBA League Pass
Radio: AM 950 (Denver) / 95.7 FM (Golden State)
Opening NBA Odds: Golden State -11.5

Why Bet on Denver?

The Nuggets would be the sixth seed in the playoffs if they started today but are less than two games ahead of No. 8 New Orleans – clearly, the No. 8 seed will be facing Golden State in the first round of the playoffs.

Denver (21-18) comes off a 106-98 loss in Sacramento on Saturday. Star center Nikola Jokic made just 3-of-10 from the field for eight points with 10 assists, seven rebounds, five turnovers and three fouls in 34 minutes. He’s in a bit of a mini-funk after going 3-for-13 from the field Friday against Utah. His jumper isn’t falling right now and he’s taking more of them late in the clock.

That Kings loss came in the second of a back-to-back and it showed as the Nuggets committed a season-high 26 turnovers, missed four consecutive free throws down the stretch and coach Mike Malone was hit with a technical foul. The Kings scored an NBA season-high 40 points off Denver turnovers.

One Nugget who has been playing really well of late is Trey Lyles, who scored 19 points with nine rebounds on 8-of-11 from the field against the Kings. In the last 14 games, Lyles has averaged 17.4 points, 7.2 boards and 57.6 percent shooting from the field.

What Shouldn’t You Forget for Monday’s Game?

Keep in mind that the Nuggets are without All-Star forward Paul Millsap. Malone said that he doesn’t anticipate Millsap (wrist surgery) returning until after the All-Star break at the earliest. The 32-year-old Millsap is averaging 15.3 points, 6.2 rebounds and 3.1 assists in his first season with the Nuggets. He signed a three-year, $90 million free agent deal over the summer.

Denver has won at least two games against Golden State in eight of the past 13 seasons. The Nuggets won in Golden State on Dec. 23, 96-81. Gary Harris scored 19 points to lead a balanced offense and the Nuggets stopped the Warriors’ 11-game winning streak at the time. Jokic added 18 points and nine rebounds and Jamal Murray had 14 points, six rebounds and five assists for the Nuggets. The Nuggets had lost five straight on Golden State’s home floor dating to a 100-99 win at Oracle on April 10, 2014.

Why Bet on Golden State?

The Dubs (32-8) bring a four-game winning streak into this one and have scored at least 121 points in each. They won at the Clippers on Saturday, 121-105. Stephen Curry made 11-of-21 from the field for a season-high 45 points with six rebounds, three assists, three steals and eight 3-pointers in just under 30 minutes. Curry joined teammate Klay Thompson, Gilbert Arenas and J.R. Smith as the only players to score at least 45 points in under 30 minutes since 1964. He scored 29 of those points in the first half and didn’t even play in the fourth to post his 28th 40-point game of his career.

The only other players in the last 10 years to score as many points without playing after the end of the third quarter were Curry himself (46 on April 13, 2016) and his Thompson (60 on Dec. 5, 2016.) The last NBA player to do that in a road game was Kobe Bryant, who scored 51 over the first three quarters at Denver on Feb. 12, 2003. Curry was out injured when Denver won in Oakland.

How Has Stephen Curry Doing Since His Return?

After missing 11 games due to a sprained right ankle, Curry has played in the past four and is averaging 36.0 points (.584 FG%, .538 3pt%, .897 FT%), 6.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.3 steals in 31.8 minutes per game. His 144 points in the last 4 games are the most points scored by a player in their 1st 4 games back after missing at least 10 straight games that season (prev. 127 points, Chris Webber, March 2001).

The Clippers win meant the Warriors swept their 3-game road trip, extending their road winning streak to 10 games, tied for the 2nd-longest in franchise history. Golden State became the first team in NBA history to win 17 of its first 20 road games in 3 straight seasons.

Golden State leads the NBA in scoring, assists per game, blocks per game, field goal percentage, 3-point field goal percentage and free throw percentage.

The line on this game will be affected by whether Kevin Durant plays. He has missed the past two with a calf strain. Durant (19,975) is 25 points shy of 20,000 career and would become the 44th player in NBA history to reach the milestone. (behind LeBron James) to reach the 15,000-point career milestone. The four-time scoring champion, 2013-14 MVP, 2017 NBA Finals MVP has a career scoring average of 27.1 points per game, fifth-highest in NBA history and second-highest active behind LeBron James.

Latest NBA Odds Trends

 

  • Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
  • Denver is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver’s last 8 games
  • Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
  • Golden State is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State’s last 6 games

 

Expert Prediction & NBA Pick for Monday Night

 

It’s not looking great for Durant to play, but the Warriors will win by double digits regardless. So be sure to pick them in the NBA odds.