NBA Playoff Betting Advice for Handicapping Favorites

Posted by Eric Williams on Tuesday,April 12, 2016 3:02, EDT in

Are you an NBA betting buff that likes to keep it simple by backing the favorite more often than not? Do you simply want to back the team perceived to be ‘better’ ballclub and call it a night? Well, if you do, then you should know that handicapping and cashing in on favorites come NB playoff time isn’t quite that simple, although you can increase your chances of cashing in early and often by sticking to a few simple rules.

Thankfully, the NBA playoff betting advice that you’re about to get from the bettor-friendly management at mybookie.ag and yours truly, will help assist you in your efforts to consistently strike pay dirt this NBA postseason. Okay, with that said, let’s get started.

NBA Playoff Betting Advice for Handicapping Favorites

Legitimate Favorite or Not?

As it stands right now, the likely third-seeded Miami Heat and fourth-seeded Atlanta Hawks will likely be favored to beat Boston and Charlotte in their respective first round matchups, but maybe they shouldn’t be, even with home court in their favor. These two ballclubs are looking at tough series against a pair of teams that both have plenty of desire and evenly-matched rosters. Is the ‘favorite’ you’re really planning on betting on a ‘strong’ favorite like Oklahoma City against Memphis or are they a ‘weak’ do like the Heat and Hawks?

Are They Covering Consistently?

Some favorites like Golden State (44-35-2 ATS) consistently cover the spread at a high rate while others like Oklahoma City (36-44-1 ATS) and Cleveland (37-41-3 ATS) have struggled to cash in consistently for their betting backers. The bottom line is that some favorites are great picks to win games outright, but not necessarily cover the spread, for several reasons, whether it’s a lack of focus down the stretch or a lack of either scoring or defense. Find out if the favorite you plan on wagering on has covered the spread consistently or struggled to do so.

Home and Away Homie!

Some favorites cover the spread at home like it’s nobody’s business while other struggle to do so on the road. Then again, some elite ballclubs can cover the spread regularly no matter where they play at. Case in point, Oklahoma City has gone 20-20-1 ATS at home but just 16-24 ATS on the road. Do your ATS homework and identify which favorites cover the spread anywhere and which ones struggle when they hit the road.

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Good or Bad Matchup?

Have you ever seen a favored team that simply has a ‘bad matchup?’ This means the favored teams’ roster and style of play fit perfectly into the underdogs’ style of play, making the matchup a lot more even than it once appeared.

I could easily point to Villanova’s championship game win over North Carolina a couple of weeks ago. The Wildcats were underdogs in that game, but their superior backcourt completely neutralized Carolina’s while their unrivaled ability to shoot the rock from distance consistently pulled Carolina’s ballyhooed big men away from the basket.

This appears to be the case in at least two first round series that are currently likely to take place this postseason but it could apply to more.