NBA Playoffs First Round Betting Strategy

Posted by Eric Williams on Tuesday,April 12, 2016 3:33, EST in

While at least half of the first round NBA playoff matchups that take place generally go according to script with the higher seeded team dispatching its lower seeded counterpart. The other half of the eight first round matchups can often be a lot tougher to predict, even if the favored team does manage to win its respective series.

Thanks to this expert betting guide on the strategy you should use when betting on first round NBA playoff games, you’re going to have a great chance to cash in on all eight first round pairings.  With thoughts of cashing in early and often this postseason, let’s rock and roll.

NBA Playoffs First Round Betting Strategy

Who’s On a Mission?

Is one team on more of a ‘mission’ than the other to reach a certain postseason goal?  Is one ballclub simply ‘happy’ to be in the playoff and doesn’t expect much after achieving their stated goal of reaching the postseason? If one team is on a mission and one isn’t, then that ballclub will almost surely advance to the second round – depending on some of the other following variables.

Health Equals Wealth

The bottom line is that health equals wealth in the NBA playoffs. For instance, if the dislocated shooting hand finger of sweet-shooting San Antonio Spurs power forward LaMarcus Aldridge doesn’t improve to the point where he can shoot ‘normally’ then you’ve got to know that the Spurs’ chances of winning it all this season are lessened, even if it is to a lesser degree than it would be on another less-experienced, depth-laden ballclub. If one teams is either missing or playing an injured key rotational player or two, then their chances of advancing in any round are definitely lesser than they would be if completely healthy.

Home Court Advantage

Did you know that…in the Scorecasting, by Tobias Moskovitz and Jon Wertheim, the pair found that the size of a crowd has an effect on referees? In the NBA, this means that close judgment calls, like charges or blocks, tend to favor the home team. Additionally, Moskovitz and Wertheim proved that referee partiality increases or decreases depending on crowd size. This is an absolutely huge factor in the NBA playoffs.

Who’s Got the Defensive Edge?

As I always say, defense wins championships in every sport – and the NBA is no different. Sure, while it may seem like the Golden State Warriors simply shot their way to the championship a year ago, the fact of the matter is that the Dubs were a top five defensive team that often clamped down on their opponents – when they weren’t draining threes from all over the place. Teams that play great defense – even lesser caliber ballclubs – give themselves a better chance of keeping games close and winning outright.

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Coaching Edge!

Let’s see…if you don’t know that Gregg Popovich gives the Spurs a better chance of winning than David Blatt ever did with the Cleveland Cavaliers, then you don’t know a thing about NBA basketball. Sure, while players win and lose games, head coaches more often than not – either give those same players a better or lesser chance of doing so because of play-calling and decision-making. The team with the ‘better’ head coach likely has a better chance of advancing.

Forget the Stretch Run – to A Certain Extent!

For some teams, a strong finish over their final 10 games or so is crucial to their collective psyche and chances for postseason success. Other teams like the San Antonio Spurs, often hit the postseason looking to rest the veteran players down the stretch run while not worrying about the record they record over their final 10 games or playoff seeding. Make sure you identify which teams’ stretch runs were more important to their postseason success than others and adjust your wagers accordingly.