Timberwolves vs Nuggets NBA Betting Lines & Game Analysis.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets NBA Betting Lines & Game Analysis

Written by on March 12, 2019

The Denver Nuggets’ push to finish with the best record in the Western Conference could get a helpful boost on Tuesday when the Minnesota Timberwolves visit town as Wolves star Karl-Anthony Towns might not play due to knee soreness. KAT’s status will certainly affect the NBA lines.

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Season Series

Denver leads 2-0, winning both on the road. Nine of the teams’ past 11 meetings have been decided by six points or fewer. The last played on Feb. 2, a 107-106 Nuggets victory. Nikola Jokic had a triple-double of 13 points, 16 rebounds, and 10 assists and he found Malik Beasley with a court-length pass for the deciding layup. Beasley finished with 22 points for the Nuggets while Karl-Anthony Towns led Minnesota with 31 points and 12 rebounds.

Why Bet on Minnesota?

Despite being very short-handed, the Timberwolves won their second straight Sunday, 103-92 over the terrible Knicks. The Knicks kept it close for 1 1/2 quarters, taking their last lead at 30-27 on Trier’s driving layup with 8:49 left in the half. But Minnesota answered with a quick 8-0 run that included a 3-pointer by Anthony Tolliver and Taj Gibson’s dunk. Jeff Teague drained a 30-footer to beat the halftime buzzer as Minnesota took a 55-45 lead into the break.

That game wasn’t in doubt again.

The Wolves were without Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and largely Derrick Rose. It was the first game Minnesota has played without either Towns or Wiggins since April 16, 2014. Rose, the Wolves’ second-leading scorer, had four points and played just eight minutes, all in the first half, as coach Ryan Saunders chose to rest the veteran against the team with the NBA’s worst record.

Towns is dealing with a knee injury but did try to warm up for the game. He’s day-to-day and his continued absence, if it happens should result in plenty of extra minutes for Gibson, Dario Saric, and Gorgui Dieng.

Gibson started for Towns on Sunday and hit 11-of-15 shots for a season-high 25 points, eight rebounds, two steals and a block in 30 minutes. In the three games, Towns has missed this year, Gibson has scored 25, 20, and 19 points — his three highest-scoring games of the season.

Keita Bates-Diop started again for Wiggins (left quad) and hit 7-of-12 shots and two 3-pointers for a career-high 18 points, six rebounds, one assist, two steals and two blocks in 35 minutes. Dieng played 18 minutes off the bench on Sunday but hit just 1-of-6 shots for four points, five rebounds, a steal and a block.

Swingman Robert Covington missed the past 30 contests with a bone bruise on his right knee suffered Dec. 31 at New Orleans and will not play in Denver.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Total Score: 113.04
  • Field Goal Percentage: 45.60
  • Three-Point Percentage: 35.08
  • Free Throw Percentage: 78.86
  • Total Rebounds: 45.28

Defense

  • Total Score: 113.09
  • Field Goal Percentage: 46.32
  • Three-Point Percentage: 37.37
  • Free Throw Percentage: 76.91
  • Total Rebounds: 45.12

Why Bet on Denver?

The Nuggets lost for the fourth time in five games Friday, 122-105 at Golden State. With the Warriors on a two-game home losing streak, they didn’t let Denver get into the game for any significant stretch — much like a 142-111 road win against the Nuggets in January. In this one, Denver’s starters didn’t get it done, with the Nuggets’ bench outscoring Golden State’s reserves 58-23. The Nuggets outrebounded the Warriors 45-44 but shot just 33 for 87.

Nikola Jokic made just 5-of-10 from the field for 16 points in the loss, adding six rebounds, four assists, four steals, one block and one 3-pointer in 29 minutes. The Warriors continue to really limit Denver when Jokic is on the floor with Jokic at minus-29 in this loss. In the previous two games vs. the Warriors, he only had a -22.3 net rating.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets should be an easy victory for Denver.

Gary Harris went 0-of-2 from the field and 6-of-8 from the line for six points with two rebounds, one assist and two turnovers in 22 minutes against the Warriors. He has failed to score more than eight points in five of his last six games. Will Barton made 2-of-11 from the field for five points with nine rebounds, two steals and one 3-pointer in 26 minutes. He was a -32 in plus/minus during the first half as the Nuggets starters were torched to start this game.

Nuggets coach Michael Malone said he likes the combo of Mason Plumlee alongside Jokic in the lineup: “When we traded for Mason, we knew we were getting a playmaking, skilled big man,” Malone said. “When Mason and Nikola are out there on both ends, I like that lineup. It’s more versatility for us, and it’s been really effective for us most of the year.” Those two average nearly eight minutes per game together this season with a +10.6 net rating.

Denver is 27-6 at home (ties Toronto for best home record in the NBA). The Nuggets have had two large winning streaks at Pepsi Center this season nine and 12 straight. 1/13. They are currently 20-3 in their last 23 home games and own a record of 17-4 in Denver against Western Conference teams.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Total Score: 112.00
  • Field Goal Percentage: 46.70
  • Three-Point Percentage: 35.49
  • Free Throw Percentage: 75.48
  • Total Rebounds: 46.91

Defense

  • Total Score: 107.26
  • Field Goal Percentage: 45.95
  • Three-Point Percentage: 34.33
  • Free Throw Percentage: 74.81
  • Total Rebounds: 41.98

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Timberwolves vs Nuggets NBA Betting Trends

  • Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings
  • Road team is 39-12-1 ATS in the last 52 meetings
  • Underdog is 20-6 ATS in the last 26 meetings
  • Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
  • Minnesota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 5 games on the road
  • Denver is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games at home
  • Denver is 21-3 SU in its last 24 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver’s last 6 games at home

Expert NBA Betting Prediction

Minnesota Timberwolves 108 – Denver Nuggets 116

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