#20 North Carolina vs. NC State Game Odds and Expert Analysis for Week 13

Because neither can reach the ACC title game and both already are bowl eligible, only bragging rights are up for grabs on Saturday when North Carolina visits NC State in what may be the final game for Heels star quarterback Drake Maye for NFL Draft reasons. His team is a short favorite on the NCAAF odds. 2023 NCAAF Expert Analysis #20 North Carolina vs. NC State | MyBookie Sportsbook |

How to Bet North Carolina at NC State NCAA Football Odds & TV Info

When: Saturday, 8 PM ET
Where: Carter-Finley Stadium
TV: ACC Network
Stream: ESPN+
Radio: Tunein.com

Last Season

The Wolfpack beat the Tar Heels 30-27 in double overtime last year. Christopher Dunn connected on a 21-yard field goal to open the second overtime before North Carolina kicker Noah Burnette missed a 35-yarder to seal the NC State victory. It was the first-ever double OT game between the schools. Ben Finley completed 27-of-40 passes for 271 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions for NC State. The Pack are now 14-9 against North Carolina since 2000. Wolfpack head coach Dave Doeren is 6-4 in the series and has won the past two. UNC still leads the all-time series 68-38-6.

Why Bet on North Carolina?

North Carolina had a shot at still reaching the ACC title game entering this past Saturday but it had to win at Clemson and have Louisville lose at Miami. Neither happened. The Heels (8-3) were 31-20 losers. Carolina entered the game with the ACC’s top offense, averaging 39.9 points and 520.6 yards per game. The Tigers allowed 178 rushing yards by UNC’s Omarion Hampton but frustrated the Tar Heels’ air attack to a season-low 20 points.

“We had every bad break you could possibly have. We get two balls inside the one-yard line, one fumbled in the back of the end zone, it cost us points,” UNC coach Mack Brown said. “I think we were 4-of-14 on third downs — that’s just unacceptable. And we gave up a couple of third and fourth down series on defense because we had penalties. So I thought we played hard, really proud of the effort that they gave. But we made too many mistakes to beat a good team at a hard place to play like this.”

UNC quarterback Drake Maye extended his streak of consecutive games with 200+ yards passing to an FBS-best 25 in a row, but his 209 yards were one more than the season-low 208 he had against Appalachian State in September. He threw for a first-half score and an interception late in the fourth quarter as he tried to rally the Tar Heels for a comeback.

Maye has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 10 of the 11 games this season and 21 of 24 career starts. Maye has thrown for over 200 yards in 25 career starts. He is tied with Bryn Renner for second most 200 yard passing games in Tar Heel history. Maye’s first-quarter 33-yard touchdown to J.J. Jones put him in a tie for fourth place in career passing touchdowns at Carolina with 61.

Hampton piled up his 178 yards on just 19 carries (9.4 per attempt) and ripped off a pair of carries for 50+, including a 55-yard score in the fourth quarter. He is the first Tar Heel to run for 100+ yards in six consecutive games since Don McCauley did it eight times in 1970. Hampton’s fumble on the opening drive was his first of the season. He previously had the most rushing attempts without a fumble in FBS. Prior to Hampton’s fumble, the Tar Heels were 13 of 13 in the red zone with 12 touchdowns and one field goal. That was the first red zone trip without points for the Tar Heels since the Virginia game.

Since the start of the 2022 season, UNC linebacker Cedric Gray has led the power five in tackles. Against Clemson, he added eight tackles, bringing his new total to 249 tackles. Gray passed Rondell Jones on Carolina’s all-time tackles leader list and is now 8th in Tar Heel history with a total of 352 career tackles. Gray now has 104 tackles on the season. Gray is the first ACC player to achieve 100-plus tackles in three straight seasons since UVA’s Micah Kiser and Quin Blanding both did it from 2015 to 2017.

Why Bet on NC State?

NC State (8-3) is playing as well as anyone in the ACC right now as the Wolfpack won their fourth in a row Saturday, 35-28 at Virginia Tech. NC State scored five touchdowns, and quarterback Brennan Armstrong and wide receiver Kevin “KC” Concepcion had a hand in all five of them.

Armstrong did it through the air and on the ground, accounting for 289 total yards and four touchdowns. Armstrong threw for two and ran it in for two. Concepcion had his third game of the season with two receiving touchdowns and threw his first touchdown of his career. Concepcion finished with 44 rushing yards, 63 receiving yards, and 17 passing yards. The 35 points put up by NC State against an ACC opponent in a victory are the most since 2020 when they opened the season against Wake Forest and scored 45 points.

Wolfpack linebacker Payton Wilson had 11 tackles and a sack. He’s one of the nation’s best and named one of five finalists for the 2023 Bronko Nagurski Trophy – presented annually to the nation’s top defensive player by the Football Writers Association of America and the Charlotte Touchdown Club. Wilson is the third Wolfpack defensive player to be up for the award after Bradley Chubb won the honor back in 2017 and linebacker Levar Fisher was a finalist in 2000.

Wilson leads the ACC and ranks fifth nationally with 11.2 tackles per game. He ranks 13th nationally in solo tackles and has 49 more stops than any other Wolfpack player with 123 total (he led the ACC in 2020 with 108 in 10 games). That tackle total is the best for a Wolfpack player since 2012. He now has 22 double-figure tackle outputs for his career, including seven in 2023 and has led the team in tackles in nine of the 11 games this season.

In the last nine games, the Wolfpack defense has allowed just 84.1 rushing yards per game. During that span, three opponents have rushed for less than 100 yards (VMI 10, Louisville 20 and Wake Forest 7). In all, the Wolfpack defense ranks in the top 25 of the FBS in 10 defensive categories.

Since the beginning of the 2020 campaign, NC State is 17-1 when winning the turnover margin and 2-9 when committing more miscues than the opponent. NC State leads the ACC and ranks fourth in the FBS with 14 interceptions this season. Eight different players have INTs in 2023, with six players boasting a pair each (Wilson, Aydan White, Robert Kennedy, Shyheim Battle, Sean Brown, and Devan Boykin).

College Football Expert Prediction

UNC 30, NC State 27

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