Providence Friars vs. North Carolina Tar Heels NCAAB Odds Analysis

Posted by D.Zamzack on Saturday,March 19, 2016 11:35, EDT in

The talent-laden North Carolina Tar Heels will look to get past the pesky Providence Friars when they take to the hardwood for the third round matchup on Saturday night at PNC Arena. The Heels have a plethora of athletic high school All-Americans, but dispatching a battle-tested Providence basketball program may not be as easy as expected. Now, let’s find out which team is the right college basketball betting pick in this one!

Providence Friars vs. North Carolina Tar Heels NCAAB Odds Analysis

When: 9:40 PM ET, Saturday, March 19, 2016
Where: PNC Arena, Raleigh, North Carolina
Spread: North Carolina -10
Game Total: 151, u/o -110
Online Stream: March Madness Live
Radio: Westwood One Sports

Why Bet the Providence Friars

The Friars (24-10 SU, 18-15 ATS) narrowly got past the USC Trojans 70-69 on Thursday in their opener as Ben Bentil scored a game-high 19 points while Rodney Bullock and Kris Dunn both scored 16 points.

Somehow the Friars got the win despite shooting just 40.3 percent from the field and allowing USC to drain a blistering 53.8 percent of their shot attempts and getting outrebounded 33-30 in the surprising victory. Bentil averages a team-high 21.2 points and 7.8 rebounds while Dunn averages 16 points and 6.4 assists.

The Friars average 73.9 points on 42.1 percent shooting while allowing 69.7 points per outing on 43.7 percent shooting. Providence is 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an SU win and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

Why Bet the North Carolina Tar Heels

The North Carolina Tar Heels (29-6 SU, 16-18 ATS) had to shake off an extremely slow start in the first half to put away Florida Gulf Coast 83-67 on Thursday despite failing to cover the large spread as a 22-point favorite.

North Carolina placed five players in double figures in scoring and got a game-high 18 points from Brice Johnson en route to the win. Carolina held Florida Gulf Coast to just 2-for-11 shooting from three-point distance and forced 14 turnovers while committing just seven. The Tar Heels average 82.3 points per game on 47.7 percent shooting while allowing 69.5 points on 41 percent shooting.

Johnson averages a team-high 16.6 points and 10.6 rebounds per game while Joel Berry II contributes g 12.7 points and 3.6 assists per outing. The Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an SU win and an identical 4-1 ATS in their L/5 neutral site games.

 

Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction

I have absolutely no idea how Providence got past USC, but they won’t beat the loaded Tar Heels in this one. Still, with the Friars going 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games and the Tar Heels going just 1-6 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games, I say Providence finds a way to stay within the spread. With Providence going 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams from the ACC, I like the Friars to narrowly cover the spread.

My final score prediction is North Carolina 81 Providence 72