College Basketball Betting Analysis: North Carolina at Florida State

Posted by Eric Williams on Tuesday,January 2, 2018 5:56, EDT in

The surprising 25th-ranked Florida State Seminoles will look to rebound from a loss in their last contest when they host the 12th-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels in an intriguing ACC matchup that gets underway on Wednesday evening. If you’re a college basketball betting buff that is looking for value this week, let’s find out where that value lies in this mid-week matchup according to the latest NCAAB lines.

Tar Heels vs. Seminoles College Basketball Betting Analysis

  • When: Wednesday, January 3, 2018, 7:00 PM ET
  • Where: Donald L. Tucker Center, Tallahassee, Florida
  • TV: ESPN 2
  • Radio: 94.5 FM (North Carolina) / 101.9 FM (Florida State)
  • Live Stream: Watch ESPN
  • NCAAB Odds: FSU -1.5

Team Records

  • All: North Carolina Tar Heels 12-2 / Florida State Seminoles 11-2
  • Home: North Carolina Tar Heels 8-1 / Florida State Seminoles 8-1
  • Away: North Carolina Tar Heels 4-1 / Florida State Seminoles 3-1
  • ATS: North Carolina Tar Heels 8-5 / Florida State Seminoles 9-2
  • Over/Under: North Carolina Tar Heels 7-5-1 / Florida State Seminoles 6-5

Xavier is the NCAAB Odds Favorite vs. Butler on Tuesday Night

Recent Head to Head (Last 10 Games)

  • Record: North Carolina Tar Heels lead 8-2
  • Score: North Carolina Tar Heels 81.10 / Florida State Seminoles 75.90
  • Field Goal Percentage: North Carolina Tar Heels 46.78 / Florida State Seminoles 45.88
  • Rebounds: North Carolina Tar Heels 40.20 / Florida State Seminoles 31.50
  • 3 Point Shots: North Carolina Tar Heels 61-166 / Florida State Seminoles 78-197
  • Steals: North Carolina Tar Heels 5.90 / Florida State Seminoles 6.80

Why Consider betting on North Carolina?

Why bet on North Carolina in this contest? Because they’ve been playing better basketball than Florida State lately.

North Carolina (8-5 ATS) has won two straight and eight of nine and comes into this contest off a hard-fought 73-69 win over Wake Forest on Saturday in their ACC opener. Joel Berry II hit a floater in the lane with 10.3 seconds left and North Carolina closed out the Demon Deacons on an 8-0 run to get the win.

“It’s not a great positive message to them in the locker room,” head coach Roy Williams said, “because by golly, we’ve got to play smarter and we’ve got to play harder.”

Team Statistics

Offense

  • Total Score: 85.21
  • Field Goal Percentage: 47.29
  • Three-Point Percentage: 38.99
  • Free Throw Percentage: 71.52
  • Total Rebounds: 44.14

Defense

  • Total Score: 71.71
  • Field Goal Percentage: 40.38
  • Three-Point Percentage: 37.40
  • Free Throw Percentage: 68.78
  • Total Rebounds: 31.50

Why Consider betting on Florida State?

Why bet on Florida State in this contest? Because believe it or not, Florida State is the better statistical team on both sides of the ball!

Florida State (9-2 ATS) is coming off a 100-93 road loss to Duke on Saturday, although they easily covered the spread as an 11.5-point home underdog. Phil Cofer scored a career-high 28 points and Braian Angola finished with a career-best 23 for the Seminoles who shot nearly 45 percent from the field and drained15 three-pointers.

Florida State will come as the College Basketball Betting underdog.

Angola’s 3 with just under 4 minutes remaining put them up 91-89, but they missed their final eight shots — six of which came from long range.

“I thought our kids were connected. We just didn’t have an answer for keeping Bagley and Carter off the glass,” coach Leonard Hamilton said. “They are such good athletes and have such great hands and timing and strength. … That made the difference in the game. When you have two guys like that, they make up for misses.”

Team Statistics

Offense

  • Total Score: 85.69
  • Field Goal Percentage: 49.58
  • Three-Point Percentage: 38.68
  • Free Throw Percentage: 66.80
  • Total Rebounds: 39.31

Defense

  • Total Score: 67.46
  • Field Goal Percentage: 37.86
  • Three-Point Percentage: 28.62
  • Free Throw Percentage: 71.70
  • Total Rebounds: 36.62

Latest College Basketball Betting Trends

  • Tar Heels are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games
  • Tar Heels are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of North Carolina’s last 7 games on the road
  • Seminoles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing North Carolina
  • Seminoles are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida State’s last 6 games when playing at home against North Carolina

Expert Analysis and Prediction

In spite of their recent struggles over their last four games, I like Florida State to get the big upset at home in this ACC matchup to snap a seven-game skid against the Tar Heels.

North Carolina is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games against their ACC rivals while Florida State has gone 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against a team with a winning straight up record and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

The Seminoles are a perfect 6-0 at home and they have a pair of excellent scorers, plus plenty of motivation heading into this matchup, which is why they should be your College Basketball betting pick.