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Duke at Miami NCAAB Odds & Expert Prediction for Monday Night

Written by Michael Hunt on Monday,January 15, 2018 8:26, EDT

The clear game of the night in the ACC Monday is when No. 7 Duke visits No. 18 Miami. The Blue Devils have the nation’s top offense, while the Hurricanes are a Top 10 defense. Those rankings could change a bit Monday when the new AP Top 25 is released. UM is a home betting underdog in the NCAAB odds.

Duke at Miami NCAAB Odds & Expert Prediction

When: Monday, 7 PM ET
Where: Watsco Center, Coral Gables
TV: ESPN
Stream: WatchESPN
RadioBlue Devil IMG Sports (Duke) / 560 WQAM (Miami)
Opening NCAAB Odds: Duke -4.5

Last Season

The teams met twice last year (only one scheduled meeting this season) and they split, each winning at home. Duke prevailed 70-58 in the first matchup in Durham. Matt Jones scored all 13 of his points in the second half, hitting three 3-pointers during the run of 20 consecutive points that propelled Duke to the win. Jayson Tatum had 14 points and Luke Kennard 11 for the Blue Devils. All three of those guys are gone now.  The Blue Devils opened the second with a 22-1 run, shot 67 percent after halftime and ended up outscoring Miami 45-22 in the final 20 minutes. Davon Reed had 19 points and Bruce Brown added 15 to lead the Hurricanes. Brown is still with the Canes.

In Miami, the Canes won 55-50. Brown scored 25 points. He shot 11 for 18 and added four assists, while his seven teammates who got into the game shot just 11 for 40 with four assists combined. Reed had nine points and 10 rebounds in his final Miami home game. Frank Jackson and Kennard each scored 16 points for Duke, which was without star Grayson Allen.

Latest NCAAB Odds Trends

  • Duke is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 games on the road
  • Duke is 15-2 SU in the last 17 games
  • The total went OVER in 10 of Duke’s last 13 games
  • Miami is 2-4 ATS in the last 6 games
  • Miami is 13-3 SU in the last 16 games
  • The total went OVER in 13 of Miami’s last 18 games when playing Duke

Why Bet on Duke?

The Blue Devils (15-2, 3-2) beat visiting Wake Forest on Saturday, 89-71. Duke won without Coach Mike Krzyzewski, out with a virus. Jeff Capel filled in. Key reserves Marques Bolden and Javin DeLaurier sat out with injuries, while Gary Trent, Jr. was a game-time decision after being described by Capel as “very, very sick.”

Freshman Marvin Bagley III had 30 points and 11 rebounds. That was his 14th double-double this season, matching Duke’s freshman record, set by Jabari Parker four years ago. Bagley leads the ACC with 10 games of 20+ points and five games of 30+ points. He has scored 30+ in three of the last four games

Allen had just two points. But he added 11 rebounds and eight assists. Trent added 19 points and six 3-pointers, Wendell Carter Jr. had 15 points and 11 rebounds. The largest lead was 27, at 88-61.

This is the third straight season in which the 70-year-old Krzyzewski has missed at least one game due to health reasons. It’s not clear if he will coach Monday as of this writing. The Blue Devils are the only team ranked among the NCAA’s top 10 in scoring (93.2; 2nd), rebounds (44.1; second) and assists (19.9; 2nd). The Blue Devils are also second nationally in rebound margin (+11.6), fourth in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.73) and seventh in field goal pct. (.511).

Bagley III leads the ACC in scoring (22.5) and rebounding (11.7) and is tied for second in the NCAA in double-doubles (14). Trevon Duval leads the ACC in assists (6.24), while Allen is second in the league in assist-to-turnover ratio (2.96). Of Duke’s 24 double-doubles this season, 23 have come from freshmen, which extends a school record. Bagley has tied Duke’s freshmen record for double-doubles (14).

Duke is 18-7 all-time versus Miami, which includes a 7-5 record in road games (5-4 at Watsco Center).

Why Bet on Miami?

The Canes (13-3, 2-2) are likely to fall from No. 18 in the new polls as they are off a 72-63 loss at No. 19 Clemson on Saturday.  The Tigers had a season-high 12 3-pointers, four of those coming in the final 10 minutes of a tie game. The Hurricanes entered Saturday ranking 331 — out of 351 teams — in free-throw percentage at .641. Miami made only 9-of-18 attempts against the Tigers.

Freshman Lonnie Walker IV and Anthony Lawrence II led Miami with 16 points apiece.  Walker recorded his second-best scoring output as a Hurricane, while Lawrence posted a season high. Chris Lykes added 13, while Dewan Huell scored 10. The Tigers were 22-for-50 (.440) from the field while limiting Miami to 38.1 percent (24-for-63). The Canes hit on 6-of-23 3-point attempts.

Are the Hurricanes a safe bet on Monday?

The Hurricanes have played just six home games this season – fewest in the ACC. The Canes are unbeaten at home this year and have won 33 of their last 35 contests at the Watsco Center.

Miami is averaging 73.4 points per game while limiting its opponents to 60.6 points per game. UM ranks among the top five nationally in scoring defense, three-point defense (.285) and field-goal defense (.373). Miami is ranked No. 7 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency by KenPom.

Huell (13.6) and Brown (11.3) are the only two Hurricanes averaging double-digits in scoring. Brown leads the team in rebounding (7.1) and assists (3.9). Jim Larrañaga is 5-4 against Duke in his career, including a 5-3 mark at Miami. The Canes are 3-1 at home against Duke under Larrañaga. Miami’s total of five wins against Duke since 2011-12 is tied with Notre Dame for the most of any program.

Expert Prediction & NCAAB Pick

Duke hasn’t won at Miami since 2014 so take the points in NCAAB odds.