Maximizing Your Profits Betting on March Madness Futures

Posted by Joe Solari on March 13, 2016 in

Game on…! By far, this year’s college basketball regular season has been the wildest and craziest one in recent NCAAB history, but that is probably nothing compared to the volatility that is expected in the soon-to-start March Madness. Around this time last year, we were talking about Kentucky’s unbeaten season and its chance of going unbeaten for the rest of the season. This year, no team has come close to the infinitesimal shot at a perfect record like Kentucky; schools in both top and low conferences are peppered with blemishes in their records, including yours truly, the No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks.

Maximizing Your Profits Betting on March Madness Futures



Essentially, this means that placing winning bets in the college basketball odds will be far from easy than ever before (has it ever been easy, by the way?) and bettors will need the best of strategies to ensure profitability in the NCAAB lines. Needless to say, there is no universal cheatbook to use in your NCAA Tournament wagers, but you can use the following college basketball betting tips to maximize your profits when betting on March Madness futures.

Avoid Skidding and Out-of-form Teams

Momentum plays an important role in the Tournament, especially in regards to motivating players about their abilities. This is the reason why most skidding teams tend to enter the Tourney with a lack of confidence, which often leads to misery in March Madness.  Teams to watch in this category include Iowa and Maryland, who finished the regular-season struggling after a bright start to the season. The same fate often goes for recognized name-brands that are having a down year. Examples of big-name schools that are having a down year this season include defending National Champs Duke, Butler, Arizona, UCLA, Connecticut, North Carolina State, Wisconsin, Gonzaga and UNLV. Be very cautious when betting on such teams, as they could easily ruin your brackets. And while you are at it, don’t forget that teams like North Carolina and Utah are also ticking time bombs, so unless you are looking to get blown apart in the craziness, stay the hell away from them, especially when the livewire Madness of March starts catching up to teams in the second round.

Avoid Low-Seeded and Overrated Teams

Yes, your so-called Bracketology experts are preaching the gospel of big upsets, owing to the manner of surprising wins and defeats we’ve seen in the regular season. In part, we agree with them that this March will not be devoid of its Madness, but that does not mean you should rout for a #15 and #16 to go it deep in the Tournament, as they never win that much and won’t do it just because pundits are saying that it’s a wide-open market.

To understand what we’re talking about, here is a look at the last 10 Final Four teams with their respective seeds:

  • 2015—#1 Kentucky, #1 Wisconsin, #7 Michigan State, #1 Duke
  • 2014—#1 Florida, #7 Connecticut, #2 Wisconsin, #8 Kentucky
  • 2013—#1 Louisville, #4 Syracuse, #4 Michigan, #9 Wichita State
  • 2012—#1 Kentucky, #2 Kansas, #2 Ohio State, #4 Louisville
  • 2011—#3Connecticut, #4 Kentucky, #8 Butler, #11 VCU
  • 2010—#1 Duke, #2 West Virginia, #5 Butler, #5 Michigan State
  • 2009—#1 North Carolina, #1 Connecticut, #2 Michigan State, #3 Villanova
  • 2008—#1 Kansas, #1 Memphis, #1 North Carolina, #1 UCLA
  • 2007—#1 Florida, #1 Ohio State, #2 Georgetown, #2 UCLA
  • 2006—#2 UCLA, #3 Florida, #4 LSU, #11 George Mason

Looking at the above list, you will also notice that only two teams seeded past #10—George Mason (2006) and VCU (2011)—ever made it to the Final Four. So, irrespective of what the ‘experts’ are saying, conventional wisdom dictates that you keep off the low-seeded teams.

As for overrated teams, well, I guess you already know about them. The Big Ten is particularly a good breeding ground for them, including teams like Indiana, Purdue and Iowa. In the Pac-12, Cal is the most-overrated team right now, while the Saint Mary’s Gaels are that team in the West. The logic here is simple; when a mediocre team beats up another mediocre team, the eventual byproduct is usually mediocrity, irrespective of what the stupid ranking say.

Lean on Teams from Stronger and Proven Conferences

As mentioned previously, ensure that you keep away from overrated teams, especially those that are having a down season. However, as a candid rule, always lean on schools from stronger and larger conferences that have proven their worth if you are caught in a betting dilemma (like when picking brackets). This is mainly because the history NCAAB betting is dominated with wins from top-tier teams from big conferences, with the weak and small conference teams usually falling within the first three rounds of March Madness.

Oh, and in case you didn’t notice from our list of Final Four teams over the last 10 years, programs like Kentucky, Michigan State and Kansas are perennial Final Four teams. When filling your brackets and making your picks for potential champions, it is thus highly advisable to keep such teams in mind, especially considering how they’ve both played so far this year and are guaranteed to be seeded highly for the Big Dance.

Trust Schools from the States of Kentucky, Virginia and Kansas

Okay, there are very several states with good college basketball teams, and we are in no way discounting their ability to do well in March Madness odds. What we are saying is that, if you are looking for a summary of the best states with the most trustworthy teams that can bring the bacon home this month, then simply go with the following schools from the following states– Kentucky (Kentucky and Louisville), Virginia (Virginia, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, VCU), and Kansas (Kansas, Wichita State and Kansas State, if they make the Tourney). As can be affirmed by the records and ranking of these teams in the nation, most of the aforementioned teams from these states have been playing quite well this season, and their basketball history also offers proof of success, making them worthy of your priority consideration in the NCAAB lines.

Mind over Matter..!

Those talks about trusting your heart over your head are meant for Soap Opera fans. Dare try them in your Bracketology NCAAB picks and you’ll understand why no ardent betting enthusiasts are fans of the Romeo and Juliet story. If I was to pick a theme movie to guide you in your NCAA Tournament betting, I’d go with The Godfather, which underlines the important necessity of sometimes overlooking heart-related stuff like friendships for the sake of racking up big profits. And how do you make level-headed decision? Good question… Read, research, and then repeat reading and research a couple more times before settling on a pick or prediction.