NCAA Basketball Betting Analysis & Pick: Virginia at Louisville

NCAA Basketball Betting Analysis & Pick: Virginia at Louisville

Written by on February 28, 2018

The Louisville Cardinals will look to pull off the huge upset at home when they host the top-ranked and for sure NCAA Basketball Betting favorite Virginia Cardinals in their ACC clash on Thursday night. The Cavaliers are looking to remain on a roll prior to the ACC Tournament to also increase their odds to win 2018 March Madness.

Cavaliers vs. Cardinals NCAA Basketball Betting Analysis & Pick

  • When: Thursday, March 1, 2018, 8:00 PM
  • Where: KFC Yum Center, Louisville, KY
  • TV: ACC Network
  • Radio: 1440 AM (Virginia) / 840 AM (Louisville)
  • Live Stream: ACCDN
  • NCAA Basketball Betting Odds: TBA

Team Records

  • All: Virginia Cavaliers 26-2 / Louisville Cardinals 19-10
  • Home: Virginia Cavaliers 15-1 / Louisville Cardinals 15-4
  • Away: Virginia Cavaliers 11-1 / Louisville Cardinals 4-6
  • ATS: Virginia Cavaliers 18-6-1 / Louisville Cardinals 14-12-1
  • Over/Under: Virginia Cavaliers 6-19 / Louisville Cardinals 15-11

Providence at Xavier NCAAB Betting Odds & Game Info – February 28th

Recent Head to Head (Last 7 Games)

  • Record: Virginia Cavaliers lead 6-1
  • Score: Virginia Cavaliers 63.71 / Louisville Cardinals 53.00
  • Field Goal Percentage: Virginia Cavaliers 49.24 / Louisville Cardinals 38.86
  • Rebounds: Virginia Cavaliers 30.86 / Louisville Cardinals 27.29
  • 3 Point Shots: Virginia Cavaliers 34-95 / Louisville Cardinals 31-109
  • Steals: Virginia Cavaliers 6.29 / Louisville Cardinals 6.29

Why Consider Betting on Virginia?

Why should you consider betting on Virginia in this contest? Because the Cavaliers are the far better team in this contest and have a lot to play for. Virginia has won three straight and 18 of their last 19 games including their stunning 66-37 win over Pittsburgh on Saturday. Virginia allowed just seven points in the first half and secured the regular-season Atlantic Coast Conference title outright with a 66-37 win over Pittsburgh on Saturday. “We got off to a good start and we tried to not let up in any way,” Virginia coach Tony Bennett said. The Cavaliers might average just 67.5 points per game to rank an uninspiring 309th nationally, but they also play defense like you haven’t seen in ages. Virginia ranks first in the nation in points allowed (52.1 ppg). This season, Virginia has limited North Carolina to a mind-boggling 49 points in January and held both, Wisconsin and Pittsburgh to 37 points! That’s right….37 points. The Cavaliers have beaten Duke while limiting the Blue Devils to just 63 points and oh yeah, the also held Clemson to 36 points. When you can hole a dozen teams to less than 50 points like Virginia has this season, you can literally beat anyone!

Team Statistics

Offense
  • Total Score: 67.50
  • Field Goal Percentage: 46.27
  • Three-Point Percentage: 38.72
  • Free Throw Percentage: 76.23
  • Total Rebounds: 32.64
Defense
  • Total Score: 52.14
  • Field Goal Percentage: 37.47
  • Three-Point Percentage: 29.64
  • Free Throw Percentage: 71.47
  • Total Rebounds: 30.64

Why Consider Betting on Louisville?

Why should you consider backing Louisville in this contest? Because the Cardinals are playing at home and desperate, that’s why! Louisville snapped a two-game skid as senior guard Quentin Snider scored 22 points on a career-high seven 3-pointers to help the Cardinals pull away from Virginia Tech for a 75-68 win on Saturday. Louisville doesn't look like a safe NCAA Basketball Betting option against Virginia. “He kind of had a different approach to him, a different mindset,” Louisville head coach David Padgett said. “We knew he was going to play really well.” The Cardinals are averaging 77.2 points per game while allowing 70.2 points per contest defensively. They’re also looking to avenge a 74-64 road loss to the Cavaliers on Jan. 31. Three Cardinals are averaging double figures in scoring, led by Deng Adel’s team-high 15.2 points per game.

Team Statistics

Offense
  • Total Score: 77.24
  • Field Goal Percentage: 45.70
  • Three-Point Percentage: 36.39
  • Free Throw Percentage: 73.12
  • Total Rebounds: 37.59
Defense
  • Total Score: 70.21
  • Field Goal Percentage: 40.49
  • Three-Point Percentage: 32.48
  • Free Throw Percentage: 71.56
  • Total Rebounds: 37.48

Latest NCAA Basketball Betting Trends

  • Virginia is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games
  • Virginia is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Virginia’s last 11 games
  • Louisville is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
  • Louisville is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Louisville’s last 9 games

Expert Analysis and Prediction

Let me start by saying that Virginia will not lose this contest, making the ATS spread the only thing you have to worry about in this affair. Virginia has gone 4-2 ATS in their last six games and a robust 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Louisville snapped a two-game ATS skid by covering the chalk the last time out against Virginia Tech and improved to 3-2 ATS over their last five. Unfortunately, the Cardinals are also just 3-5 ATS over their last eight and they looked pretty horrific in their 82-56 smackdown loss against Duke last Wednesday. If the spread doesn’t top the 10-point plateau, Virginia will cover it! Score: Virginia Cavaliers 71 – Louisville Cardinals 61