Unless you like parting with your money like Moses once did with the Red Sea, then avoiding risky bets is an age-old adage for sports betting enthusiasts of every era! Now, when I say risky bets, I mean the kind of NCAAB online wagers that you’re really expecting to cash in on, but don’t have as much of a legitimate chance of doing so as you might think.
Risky March Madness Betting Predictions
Thanks to this expert betting breakdown, I’m going to highlight a half-dozen ‘risky’ teams that have low probability of cashing in against their March Madness championship odds, no matter how value-packed they may appear. With that said, let’s get started.
Betting on Oklahoma 11/1
If you’re going to place a wager on the sixth-ranked Sooners (24-6 SU, 12-16 ATS) then you should know that they are a team that has underachieved every time they’ve had the opportunity to grab the Big 12 race with a death grip while failing to cover the spread consistently. For example, over their last 10 games Oklahoma has lost to K-State, No. 1 Kansas (that’s okay), Texas Tech and Texas. If superstar guard Buddy Hield gets held in check, the Sooners re going to get bounced out of the NCA tournament on their rear ends.
Betting on Carolina 8/1
Seventh-ranked North Carolina (25-6 SU, 13-17-1 ATS) can literally look like the best team in the nation one game and a bunch of clueless underclassmen the next. Over their last 10 games, Carolina has gotten smacked around by Louisville and Notre Dame to start February before following that up with a collapse against Duke and a telling loss against No. 4 Virginia. The Heels are a bit of a risky March Madness wager, even if they can beat any team in the country on any given day.
Betting On Duke 18/1
Go ahead and bet on the 19th-ranked Blue Devils (22-9 SU, 13-15-2 ATS) to win it all if you like, but I wouldn’t if I were you. Simply put, the Dookies are not quite as good as they have been under Coach K in recent seasons. Case in point, Duke’s humbling 76-62 loss to a so-so Pittsburgh team on February 28 totally tells how mediocre the Blue Devils are. Duke has alternated SU wins and losses over their last six games, not to mention their best player, shooting guard Grayson Allen is pretty much a scumbag of the highest order.
Betting on Maryland 22/1
I was so high on Maryland (24-7 SU, 13-16-1 ATS) a few weeks back I thought they may have been a shoo-in to reach the Final Four. Now, that’s clearly not the case as Maryland has lost four of their last six games while getting smacked around by Wisconsin, lowly Minnesota, Purdue and Indiana. Is it possible the Terrapins could catch lightning in a bottle to make a deep tourney run? Yes, it’s possible, just not very likely if you ask me.
Betting on Villanova 14/1
Look, I’m from Philly and I have absolutely no belief in Jay Wright’s team, mostly because I’m tired of seeing the Wildcats (27-4 SU, 14-15-1 ATS) reach the national top 10 – all before falling apart prematurely once March Madness gets underway in earnest. Nova won’t get knocked out early, but they also won’t reach the Final Four.
Betting On a Pac-12 Contender
Maybe it’s me, but I’m going to urge you to avoid backing either of the top two national championship title contenders out of the Pac-12.
The Ducks (25-6 SU, 17-11 ATS) are very good, but I just believe they’re not as battle-tested playing in the Pac-12 as some of the other elite title contenders in other conferences that have to face a gauntlet of much tougher opponents. Besides, if you saw the Ducks get pounded by 20 points at Cal and lose to Stanford the following game, then you know that the Ducks are missing something, even if they do have four double-digit scorers on their team.
I could simply repeat the above paragraph and use it for the Wildcats (24-7 SU, 16-15 ATS) but I won’t, even though I really, really could. Arizona can score the ball with the best teams in the country, but I’m not particularly fond of their defense or head coach Sean Miller, not to mention the fact that the Cats have just three double-digit scorers on their roster. Arizona should reach the Sweet 16 and possibly the Elite Eight, but there tourney run won’t go any further than that!
If you haven’t noticed every team on this list, besides the final to Pac-12 ballclubs, has a losing ATS record at the time of this writing.