With the start of March Madness right around the corner, now is a perfect time to share some sage betting rules that I have formulated throughout my years as one of the best handicappers in the world today. Each of these NCAAB Odds ‘betting rules’ has served me well and they can work for you too.
— NCAA March Madness (@marchmadness) February 11, 2016
Seven Rules for Good March Madness Betting
Have you ever watched a game and thought, ‘Jeez, this is a bad matchup for ‘X’ team?’ Well, it’s true, whether it’s because of roster personnel or style of play, some teams, simply match up very well against their seemingly superior opponents. Always be careful when you see a contest featuring two teams that have either, polar-opposite playing styles or lower seeded teams whose personnel or style of play is a nightmare for their higher seeded opponents.
Real Record vs. Padded Power-Puff!
Make no mistake about it, all teams are not created equal, even if they have identical SU records. Or example let’s say Michigan and a team like Cleveland State are both 21-5, but Michigan has compiled their record playing in the rough and tumble Big Ten while Cleveland State has beaten a bunch of mid-major programs that wouldn’t win 10 games playing in an powerful conference like the Big Ten. Well, the simple fact of the matter is that Michigan’s 21-5 record against far superior competition is a lot more meaningful than Cleveland State’s identical 21-5 record. Make sure you know if a team has played a powder-puff schedule or whether they play tough competition all season long. In the end, it could mean everything.
Never Bet on Teams You Haven’t Seen Yourself
I know a lot of March Madness bettors probably make wagers on teams based on their seeds or SU records, but the fact f the matter is that you should never make a wager on a team that you haven’t seen for yourself. I mean, really…isn’t that kind of like a pitcher throwing a baseball with his eyes closed, hoping he hits the catcher’s mitt?
Make at Least One Upset Pick for Each Region
If you don’t know by now, you’re going to need to pick at least one upset in every region, likely in every round too. Predicting which upsets will take place can be extremely difficult, but it’s a virtual must as ‘upsets’ routinely happen in today’s parity-laden version of the NCAA Tournament.
Make Your Biggest Wagers on Games You’re ‘Sure’ About
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that you should make your biggest wagers on games you have a high ‘certainty’ about. When you see what looks like a lock selection to you, then don’t waste time making your pick or even worse, second-guessing yourself out of it.
College basketball coaches, unlike their professional counterparts, weigh heavily on the outcome of their games whether it’s through timely substitutions or routinely altering their game plans. A sage college coach can theoretically change his defense from man-to-man to myriad zone defenses, or vice versa. If one coach is far superior to the other, that team will likely have a better chance of winning. Remember, in college basketball, coaching matters!
Keep it Simple!
I you simply pick the best team to win, barring those upset picks I told you to make, you’ll find out that the ‘better’ team wins far more often than you might imagine. While certain game’s point spread may make picking the ATS winner difficult, the better team generally wins outright. Keep it simple and never forget this simple March Madness betting rule.