The NCAA Tournament is entering the Sweet 16 stage, a round of March Madness that is typically dominated by favorites in both the SU and ATS, so the general expectation is that the favored NCAAB betting teams will rule in the 2016 March Madness Odds. Don’t, however, expect it to be all smooth-sailing for the favorites, considering the unpredictable nature of the Tourney so far, which means that a couple of underdogs could prove very worthwhile, especially in regards to covering the spread. With that in mind, here are bold Sweet 16 ATS picks you should consider adding to your NCAAB betting tickets for the week at hand.
Bet on the Sweet 16 ATS Picks
SOUTH
Maryland vs. Kansas
The Kansas Jayhawks brag of having the best ATS mark amongst teams still participating in the NCAA Tournament, sporting a stellar 23-11 ATS record on the season. This includes a 2-0 ATS mark in the tournament so far with victories of 26 and 12 points, respectively. Even more notably, the No. 1-seed Jayhawks—winner of 14 of their last 15 games—are 10-3-2 ATS in their last 15 outings, and are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games on a neutral court. Against the Terps (16-17-2 ATS on the season) who’ve been absolutely shaky away from home (both on the road and neutral court), the Jayhawks should be more than capable of beating Melo Trimble and Co. while covering the spread rather easily. ATS NCAAB Pick: Kansas (-6.5)
Miami (FL) vs. Villanova
Following their dominant win and cover over Iowa, the Wildcats will be looking to stay Supernova for a third straight SU and ATS in the Tournament. Taking into account Villanova is finally back to shooting hot from downtown, Miami will certainly have its hands full. That said, the Wildcats are just 5-7 ATS in their last 12 games and are 18-17 ATS on the season, which doesn’t bode confidence against the Miami team that is 19-13-1 ATS on the season. Not to mention, the Hurricanes are decently 8-10 ATS in their games on the road or at a neutral site this year. Added to the fact that Miami can also shoot and defend the ball respectably, I think leaning on Miami for the points is the right way to go here. ATS NCAAB Pick: Miami (+4)
MIDWEST
Syracuse vs. Gonzaga
After beating Dayton in the opening round and dispatching the 15-seed Middle Tennessee (who had upset Michigan State in Round One), the Orange are hoping to continue their Cinderella run in the Tournament. Good news for Syracuse fans is that the Orange have are solidly 5-1 ATS in their last six games and are on-fire with a 3-0 ATS mark in their last 3 straight games. Not to mention, Syracuse has been pure money in neutral-site games, going 5-1 ATS in that spot this season. The problem, however, is that they will be facing a deeply-talented Gonzaga team that has gone 6-0-1 ATS in its past seven games. The Bulldogs’ defense, which struggled at the start of the season, has also seemingly found its identity, mainly through dominating the glass, something we believe will make life difficult for the Orange in their bid to get a win or cover of the spread here. ATS NCAAB Pick: Gonzaga (-4)
Iowa State vs. Virginia
In all honesty, I am seriously tempted to go with Virginia and its nation-best defense to take care of business in this round. After all, the Cavs (1-1 ATS in the Tournament) have been doing quite well in the offense as well, and their 9-2 ATS run in their final 11 games within the conference means they are no newbies to covering the spread in big games. The concern, however, is that Virginia will be playing a ridiculously efficient Iowa State offense that is scoring north of 80 points per game this season. The Cyclones are also 4-0 ATS in their last four games (including a 2-0 ATS mark in the Tournament). So, although Virginia could easily win this one quite comfortably (and I wouldn’t blame you if you placed your money on that), I have a feeling that the Cyclones will make a game out of this Sweet 16 game to cover the spread, or even deliver an outright upset altogether. ATS NCAAB Pick: Iowa State (+5)
WEST
Duke vs. Oregon
This one should be straight forward. Besides Oregon’s superior winning momentum, the Ducks have the second-best ATS mark of teams still in the tournament at 19-13-1, and are 3-1 ATS in their past four games. Duke, meanwhile, has not covered the spread in back-to-back games since January, and had it not been for those lucky free throws made Grayson Allen against Hawaii last week, the Blue Devils would 0-8 ATS in their last 8 outings. In short, wobbly Duke is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight games, and 15-18-1 ATS on the season, something that should see the solid Ducks almost certainly cover the cheap points against Duke. ATS NCAAB Pick: Oregon (-2.5)
Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma
Despite having the best player on the planet in Buddy Hield, the Oklahoma Sooners enter this game against Texas A&M on a funky seven-game ATS drought. As if that isn’t scary enough, Oklahoma’s 12-20 ATS mark is the worst among teams still stepping in the Big Dance. Conversely, Texas A&M is decently 17-13-2 ATS this season, but the Aggies struggled mightily in the double-overtime win over NIU in the Round of 32, so don’t jump on Texas A&M too quick, ‘coz they aren’t that solid either. I want to trust the Aggies to do much better here, but Hield is playing in another galaxy right now (averaging 31.5 points and 6.0 rebounds through his first two games in the Tournament) and that could factor in greatly in the final result. On the basis of Hield’s numbers, I will half-heartedly give OU the benefit of doubt, taking them for both the win and points. ATS NCAAB Pick: Oklahoma (-2)
EAST
Indiana vs. North Carolina
Both UNC and Indiana can take care of the ball on both sides of the court, so this one will be a toss-up match. Making matters worse, both North Carolina and Indiana are similarly 5-1 ATS in their past six games, so it’s not easy to say who has better ATS momentum coming into this game. That being said, I expect this game to be very close, and Indiana (19-15 ATS this season) has been a better team against the spread than North Carolina (16-18-2 ATS this season), so taking the Hoosiers for the points looks like the right way to go here in a potential back-and-forth shootout affair. ATS NCAAB Pick: Indiana (+5.5)
Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame
Nothing smells right about Notre Dame, despite them being favored. I mean, the Irish have the lowest ATS winning percentage of any team in the tournament in the last 20 years. In addition, Notre Dame (15-16-1 ATS this season) has only twice had an ATS streak more than two games, with one of those dating back to December. Against a Wisconsin team that is impressively 18-16 ATS this season and is 2-0 SU and ATS so far in the Tournament, and has been arguably playing better basketball than Notre Dame recently; I will take the Badgers and their solid D to carry the day. ATS NCAAB Pick: Wisconsin (+1)
