Virginia at North Carolina NCAA Basketball Odds & Expert Pick.

Virginia at North Carolina NCAA Basketball Odds & Expert Pick

Written by on February 11, 2019

When you look at college sports, you usually find one or two good teams in each conference, with each of those teams in with a shot at making a run when March Madness begins. Things are a little different in the ACC, though, as that conference has set the bar in college basketball, with no less than 3 teams sitting in the top 10 at the end of last week. There are legitimately a handful of teams in that conference who you can make a case for as a potential national champion. Two of those teams will be going head to head on Monday night in what is arguably the game of the week.

The Virginia Cavaliers are coming off a tough loss and will be looking to get back to winning ways, but that is not going to be an easy task against an always strong North Carolina Tar Heels team. The bookies have had a tough time deciding which way to go here, with the visiting Cavaliers in as a 1-point favorite. The point total has been set at 141 ½.

Virginia at North Carolina NCAA Basketball Odds & Expert Pick

Why bet on the Virginia Cavaliers?

The Cavaliers were in at the #3 spot last week, but they may drop a little after losing to Duke to close out their week. Virginia is now a very impressive 20-2 on the season, with both of their losses this season coming at the hands of the Duke Blue Devils. While they may have struggled versus Duke, in which there is no shame, they have been very good against other ranked opponents, winning all 5 of their other games against teams in the top 25.

The Cavaliers also have a winning record against UNC in recent years and have won 4 of their last 6 visits to Chapel Hill. The Cavaliers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 3 games, but they are still a very healthy 6-1 ATS in road games this season.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Total Score: 72.77
  • Field Goal Percentage: 47.68
  • Three-Point Percentage: 39.55
  • Free Throw Percentage: 76.04
  • Total Rebounds: 35.91
Defense
  • Total Score: 54.14
  • Field Goal Percentage: 37.83
  • Three-Point Percentage: 26.47
  • Free Throw Percentage: 62.97
  • Total Rebounds: 29.23

Why bet on the North Carolina Tar Heels?

The Tar Heels will maintain their top 10 status when the new national rankings are revealed on Monday afternoon, but they were made to battle for their latest win, closing out the week with an 88-85 OT win over Miami. With that victory, the Tar Heels extended their win streak to 7 games, which takes them to 9-1 in conference play. That is an impressive record in a conference that no-one has been able to get through totally unscathed.

Virginia vs North Carolina is going to be a close one.

The Tar Heels have had 7 games against ranked opposition this season, posting an impressive 5-2 SU record in those meetings. UNC has gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus Virginia, and they have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games overall. At home this season, UNC is 6-4-2 ATS.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Total Score: 88.30
  • Field Goal Percentage: 47.36
  • Three-Point Percentage: 37.80
  • Free Throw Percentage: 75.05
  • Total Rebounds: 42.87
Defense
  • Total Score: 74.17
  • Field Goal Percentage: 42.07
  • Three-Point Percentage: 33.67
  • Free Throw Percentage: 68.95
  • Total Rebounds: 33.17

Virginia at North Carolina NCAA Basketball Betting Trends

  • Virginia is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 games on the road
  • Virginia is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Virginia’s last 20 games on the road
  • North Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
  • North Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of North Carolina’s last 6 games

Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction

This is sure to be a fun one to watch, as these are a pair of teams that need to be considered among the favorites to win it all this season. I expect a close one, but I am taking North Carolina to edge it.

Score: Virginia Cavaliers 72 – North Carolina Tar Heels 74