Wednesday NCAA Basketball Odds & Betting Pick: Louisville at VirginiaWatchESPN Radio: 790 KRD (Louisville) / FM 97.5 (Virginia) Opening NCAA Basketball Odds: UVA -10
Last SeasonThese two will play again in Kentucky on March 1. Last year, UVA won both meetings. It was 61-53 at Louisville when the Cavs were No. 12 and the Cards No. 6. Devon Hall scored 10 points and Kyle Guy added a key jumper with 2:02 remaining as Virginia withstood a late rally. Virginia was up as many as 21. Jack Salt had seven rebounds as Virginia outrebounded the Cardinals 31-26. Louisville shot 43 percent. Their first assist came in the second half and they had just seven overall. In Charlottesville, UVA won 71-55. London Perrantes scored 18 points and Isaiah Wilkins added 13 points, 11 rebounds and five blocks. Virginia trailed 34-32 at halftime, but took command with a 22-5 run that made it 54-39 midway through the half. It was Virginia’s fourth straight win in the series. V.J. King scored a career-high 24 points for the Cardinals. They were without three key players in Quentin Snider, Deng Adel and Mangok Mathiang either due to injury or suspension. The Cavaliers are 5-1 against Louisville since the Cards joined the ACC.
Why Bet on Louisville’s NCAA Basketball Odds?With all the issues surrounding Rick Pitino and the loss of five-star freshman Brian Bowen, not much was expected of Louisville but first-year coach David Padgett has worked a miracle with the Cards at 16-5 overall and 6-2 in the ACC. They are off a 96-77 home blowout win over Wake Forest on Saturday. V.J. King and Snider each scored 15 points, Adel added 14 and Louisville overcame a slow start to shoot 51 percent and pull away. The Cardinals trailed 17-8 before surging ahead with a 19-2 run that included 14 unanswered points. Besides forcing 20 turnovers for 28 points, the Cardinals outscored the Demon Deacons 42-15 in bench points and 19-4 on the break. Louisville has collected nine or more steals in six conference games, including a season-high 12 against Wake Forest that led to a season-best 28 points off turnovers. Louisville entered this week ranked 86th in the country in adjusted tempo, according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics, marking the Cards’ second-fastest mark in the past 15 seasons dating back to early in Pitino’s tenure. Virginia, meanwhile, is playing just 59.8 possessions per game — the slowest pace in the country by a large margin, almost three possessions per game. While Louisville is averaging 15.3 seconds per possession on offense (18th in the country), Virginia drags its opponents’ possessions on for 18.1 seconds (315th in the country). Adel leads the Cardinals in scoring with 15.6 points per game. Snider ranks second on the team, averaging 13.1 points per game while dishing out a team best 85 assists. Ray Spalding leads the team on the boards with 9.3 rebounds per game and ranks third on the team in scoring with 11.0 points per game. Ryan McMahon leads the team from behind the arc, shooting 37.5 percent on the year. Louisville has a 30-18 record in its conference road games over the last six years (.625). UofL has the fifth-most conference road wins in its four years in the ACC with 16.
Why Bet on Virginia’s NCAA Basketball Odds?UVA (20-1, 9-0) could be on letdown alert after winning 65-63 at No. 4 Duke on Saturday as Ty Jerome hit a crucial 3-pointer with 37.6 seconds left. Kyle Guy scored 17 points and hit two free throws with 6.1 seconds left, Jerome finished with 13 points and Devon Hall had 14 points to help the Cavaliers win their 12th straight and their first at Cameron Indoor Stadium since 1995. Duke had 16 turnovers to Virginia’s five, with the Cavaliers turning those miscues into 14 points while the Blue Devils managed just four points off the ones they forced. Virginia features the nation’s best defense, leading the nation in scoring defense (52.1) and third in field goal percentage defense (.370), sixth in turnover margin (+5.4) and fifth in three-point field goal percentage defense (.291). Virginia is No. 3 in the Sagarin Ratings, No. 2 by Ken Pomeroy, and No. 1 in the RPI. However, three Cavaliers basketball players are fighting various ailments and maladies ahead of Wednesday night’s game. Swingman DeAndre Hunter sprained his ankle in the process of scoring the go-ahead layup for the Cavaliers in Saturday’s win. Hunter was held out of practice on Monday and is day-to-day, according to head coach Tony Bennett. Hall and forward Mamadi Diakite are suffering from flu-like symptoms and also didn’t practice on Monday. The Cardinals have averaged only 51 points in their last six meetings against Virginia and have three times been drubbed by at least 16 points. Louisville’s best-case scenario would entail an up-and-down game with plenty of transition baskets and little time for Virginia to set up on defense. But that’s not likely to happen with how UVA controls tempo – especially at home.
Latest NCAA Basketball Betting Trends
- Louisville is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
- Louisville is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Louisville’s last 5 games on the road
- Virginia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
- Virginia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Virginia’s last 5 games