What Are The Odds Of Picking A Perfect March Madness Bracket?

Posted by Eric Williams on Wednesday,February 22, 2017 8:36, EDT in

Have you ever wondered how someone could pick a perfect March Madness bracket in a tournament where upsets are now the new normal? Would you like to be the person that nails that ESPN million dollar bracket challenge by somehow, someway, predicting the perfect bracket.

Well, if you answered ‘Yes’ to either of the aforementioned questions, then you’ll love the fun-filled information on how difficult it is to nail the perfect bracket. Find the updated March Madness predictions here.

What Are The Odds Of Picking A Perfect March Madness Bracket?

 

 

While numerous sportsbooks and online web sites now routinely offer an enormous grand prize for anyone able to fill out a perfect bracket, the reason why is quite simple – because you’ve got a better chance of being struck by lightning – twice!

You see, the odds of filling out perfect March Madness betting bracket are an astronomical 9,223,372,036,854,775,808. Written out, that figure is… 9 Quintillion 223 Quadrillion 372 Trillion 36 Billion 854 Million 775 Thousand 808. Oh, and by the way, this figure does not include the play-in games.

To make a comparison that most adults can understand, the odds of winning the Mega Millions Jackpot are “only” 1 in 258,890,850 (258 million) and the odds of hitting the Power Ball are slightly lower at 175,223,510. Heck, the odds of getting struck by lightning in any given year are only 1 in 700,000.

However, Duke math professor Jonathan Mattingly says the average college basketball fan has a far better chance of achieving a perfect bracket when you take into consideration the fact that a 16 seed has never beaten a No. 1 seed (meaning your bracket should have four guaranteed wins). According to Mattingly’s adjusted probability based on seeding, the odds of picking all 32 games correctly is actually one in 2.4 trillion.

Using a different formula, DePaul mathematician Jay Bergen calculated the odds at one in 128 billion. Either way, you’ve got a better chance of becoming President of the United States than of picking out the perfect bracket.

Hmmm…well, if it worked for Donald Trump….who knows.