NCAA Football Week 1 Over/Under Betting Picks
The season is officially here … and everything matters in the quest for the College Football Playoff. pic.twitter.com/mPWozwWYiE— ESPN CollegeFootball (@ESPNCFB) August 29, 2018
Boise State at TroyWhen: September 1, 2018 at 6:00 PM ET Where: Veterans Memorial Stadium NCAA Football Odds: Boise State -10 / Total: 48
Why Bet on Boise State?The Boise State Broncos and the Troy Trojans both won an identical 11 games a year ago and have the look and feel of double-digit winners heading into 2018. More importantly, both of these programs can put points on the board in a hurry, which is why I love the Over 48 points in this intriguing regular season opener. Boise State scored 38 points or more in three of their final five regular season games a year ago while Troy put 32 points or more on the board in each of their final four games last season. Quarterback Brett Rypien is an experienced starter and junior running back Alexander Mattison rushed for 1,086 yards and 12 touchdowns, so I expect the Broncos to definitely be able to score the ball this coming season.
Why Bet on Troy?I know Troy loses four-year starter Brandon Silvers at quarterback, but the Trojans have a trio of talented signal-callers ready to replace him including three-star freshman Gunnar Watson. Whoever is under center has a trio of returning receivers in Deondre Douglas, Damion Willis and Sam Letton as well as Louisville transfer Traveon Samuel, one of Lamar Jackson’s top targets the last three seasons. Four starters return on the offensive line, so both, the passing and rushing attacks will get competent blocking up front. The Over is 16-8 in Boise State’s last 24 road games and 4-2 in Troy’s last six games overall. I’m going with Boise State for the road win and the Over 48 total points and you should too.
Latest NCAA Football Week 1 Betting Trends
- Boise State is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games
- Boise State is 9-1 SU in the last 10 games
- The total went OVER in 16 of Boise State’s last 24 games on the road
- Troy is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games
- Troy is 5-0 SU in the last 5 games
- The total went OVER in 4 of Troy’s last 6 games
Cincinnati at UCLAWhen: September 01, 2018 at 7:00 PM ET Where: Rose Bowl NCAA Football Odds: UCLA -14.5 / Total: 64
Why Bet on Cincinnati?Cincinnati won four games in 2017 while giving up a whopping 31.8 points per game last season. UCLA won a modest six games and allowed an insane 36.6 points per game in their final year under former head coach Jim Mora Jr. I know the Bruins have a new head coach in Chip Kelly, but let’s be for real. Kelly’s strength is offense and certainly not stopping the opposition. Cincinnati has made some changes on the offensive side of the ball among its coaching staff, but senior quarterback Hayden Moore, running back Gerrid Doaks and senior wideout Khalil Lewis are all back-to-back and that will give the Bearcats a small measure of experience. Still, Cincinnati allowed at least 31 points in eight games last season and their prospects for improving on that side of the ball aren’t overly encouraging seeing as how they have question marks on all three levels of their defense.
Why Bet on UCLA?UCLA is turning to Kelly to lead them back to prominence and that’s a good thing, seeing as how he turned Oregon into a perennial national championship contender before going on to flounder badly in the NFL. Still, Kelly inherits two talented running backs in Bolu Olorunfunmi and Soso Jamabo, although identifying a replacement for quarterback Josh Rosen is the top priority for Kelly. Whoever starts under center will have a trio of experienced pass-catchers in junior Theo Howard an tight ends Caleb Wilson and Devin Asiasi. The bad news is that only two starters return on the offensive line and the defense is going through some major transitions as well. Look, the bottom line for this regular season opener is that no one should expect any sort of competent defense to be played while both offenses pretty much have their way. The Over is 2-1 in Cincinnati’s last three games and the Bearcats have allowed at least 31 points in three of their last five games overall. UCLA has given up 27 points or more in each of their last five games while allowing at least 35 points in three of those contests. This one looks like a shootout waiting to happen and even though I’m not real find of the high, 64-point total, I’m expecting these two rebuilding programs to top it.
Latest NCAA Football Week 1 Betting Trends
- Cincinnati is 2-7 ATS in the last 9 games
- Cincinnati is 2-7 SU in the last 9 games
- The total went UNDER in 13 of Cincinnati’s last 19 games
- UCLA is 4-11 ATS in the last 15 games
- UCLA is 2-4 SU in the last 6 games
- The total went UNDER in 4 of California-Los Angeles’s last 5 games at home