Here is Why Alabama Will Cover the NCAAF Spread in the College National Championship Game

Posted by Joe Solari on Friday,January 8, 2016 12:04, EST in

In this article, we look at the NCAAF spread to win the 2015-16 College Football Championship game between Alabama and Clemson and discuss why the Crimson Tide look to offer the best ATS betting value.

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T: Alabama vs. Clemson

When: Monday, January 11, 2015 at 8:30 p.m. on ESPN
Where: Glendale, Arizona | University of Phoenix Stadium
NCAAF Spread: Alabama (-7)

Why Bet on Alabama Crimson Tide’s -7 NCAAF Spread

The Crimson Tide (13-1 straight up, 8-6 against the spread) have been a terrific team, particularly since they suffered that home upset loss to the Ole Miss Rebels. It’s been a long road, but it’s almost over. Now, they are just one win away from handing Nick Saban his fourth National Title, something many believe is likely to motivate for a very big performance. And after giving a masterful offensive and defensive performance in their absolutely dominant 38-0 obliterating win over Michigan State in the CFP semifinal, we do not need to tell you how good a motivated Crimson Tide can be against even the best of opponents.

Even more notably for ATS college football bettors, the Crimson Tide have gone a terrific 5-1 SU/ATS in their six games this season as a favorite of 12 points or less. In addition, Alabama’s defense has allowed less than 240 total yards in each of their previous four games (including the Spartans that were held to a paltry 239 yards of total offense). Having such a performance against the free-flowing Clemson offense that rolled up 530 total yards of offense in their semifinal win over Oklahoma won’t be easy, but having seen Bama melt down even the best of passers, there is no doubt that Clemson QB Deshaun Watson and his receivers will be hard-done in their quest to make big plays against the stingy Crimson Tide D. And as far as Clemson’s ability to run the ball is concerned, Alabama’s stellar rush defense, which is allowing just 71 YPG rushing this season, should be equally up to task.

alabama-coach-nick-saban
Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide have everything going for them to win the Championship

Then, of course, there is Heisman winner Derrick Henry, whose ability to slice up through defenses like a hot knife on butter is something you are well too familiar with. So even if Jake Coker won’t be able to have a good game, Henry and Alabama’s solid running game can always pick up the slack.

Oh, and for those concerned with more numbers to back up Alabama as the best college football ATS pick for the National Championship game, here are some juicy ones for you to swallow. Saban’s Alabama teams are 26-12 ATS following three straight games in which they allowed 250 yards or less, and those games came with a massive +21.2 PPG differential.

As for the Alabama-Clemson All-time rivalry numbers, both teams have met a total of 15 times, though only one of those meetings took place in the last 40 seasons, and that was in 2008—a game in which Alabama won handily. Of the remaining 14 meetings, Clemson only won the first three (1900, 1904, 1905), with Alabama winning every other game since then. So, in short, Alabama has won the last 12 straight games against Clemson, 7 of those being shutouts. If all that isn’t enough to allow the Crimson Tide (-7) to cover the spread the spread against Clemson on Monday, then I don’t know what else will.