Alabama Tops FSU in NCAAF Odds for College Football Week 1

Posted by Michael Hunt on Friday,September 1, 2017 10:29, EDT in

Quite simply, Saturday night’s neutral-site matchup between No. 3 Florida State and No. 1 Alabama is the best Week 1 game in college football history. A No. 1 team has never played a school in the top 3 previously in the season opener for both. The loser already would be in some jeopardy of missing the College Football Playoff. The college football odds favor Alabama over FSU. Although, you can use those NCAAF odds in your favor if your betting on the Seminoles.

FSU at Alabama College Football Week 1 Odds & Betting Preview

When: Saturday, Sept. 2, 8 PM ET
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
TV: ABC
Stream: WatchESPN
Radio: WWOF 103.1 FM(FSU) / Tide 102.9 FM (Alabama)
Opening NCAAF Odds: Tide -7 (49.5)

Weather Forecast

  • Clear: 25°C/77°F
  • Humidity: 56%
  • Precipitation: 1%
  • Wind: 7 mph WNW
  • Cloud Cover: 13%
  • Type of Stadium: Retractable

Biggest Opener Ever

Saturday’s clash marks the sixth time in the past nine seasons that two Top 10 teams in the AP preseason poll will face off in Week 1. The previous five instances all came in 2009-13. This year’s opener is only the second Top 5 matchup during this span, and the first to include the preseason No. 1. Alabama is 2-0 in Top 10 showdowns in Week 1 since 2009. The Crimson Tide won the national title in both of those seasons.

Since the preseason poll began in 1950, the closest we’ve come to a game that has matched this one likely was eventual Heisman winner Rocket Ismail leading No. 1 Notre Dame by No. 2 Michigan in Week 3 of 1989. Michigan hadn’t played in Week 1 or Week 2, so that was the opener for the Wolverines but not for the Irish.

This is also the first big event in Atlanta’s new Mercedes-Benz Stadium. That also will host the national championship game in January. The Tide went 11-3 all-time in the old Georgia Dome, including 2-0 last season. FSU has played in Atlanta four times since 2008, in two Peach Bowls and twice against Georgia Tech.

Why Bet On Florida State?

FSU has a standout returning quarterback in Deondre Francois, but perhaps more important is the return of safety Derwin James from a knee injury that limited him to two games last season. The Seminoles allowed at least 35 points and at least 7.7 yards per play in each of the three games that followed his injury last season.

While no two-loss team has reached the College Football Playoff, FSU might have a shot if it loses this game close and one other very close and still wins the ACC title. The Crimson Tide are just one of five teams ranked in the Associated Press Preseason Top 25 to appear on FSU’s schedule. By the time the season is over, the Seminoles will also have met No. 5 Clemson, No. 16 Louisville, No. 17 Florida and No. 18 Miami. And a sixth opponent, North Carolina State, could be ranked by the time it visits Tallahassee on Sept. 23.

Florida State is 9-1 against SEC opponents under head coach Jimbo Fisher, with records of 6-1 against Florida and 1-0 against Ole Miss, Auburn and South Carolina. Also under Fisher, Florida State is 17-10 (.630) against ranked opponents. Coach Fisher and Alabama head coach Nick Saban (72-39) are two of only 11 active head coaches with a winning record in their career against AP-ranked opponents.

The Seminoles have won three of their last four matchups against ranked teams. The Seminoles are 54-16 (.771) all-time in season openers, including a perfect 7-0 mark under Fisher.

Why Bet On Alabama?

Florida State and Alabama are the only two programs in college football that have played in at least five straight BCS/New Year’s Six bowl games. Florida State has played in the 2013 Orange Bowl, 2014 BCS National Championship, 2015 Rose Bowl, 2015 Chick-fil- A Peach Bowl and 2016 Orange Bowl. Alabama appeared in its sixth straight BCS/New Year’s Six bowl game in 2016.

The Crimson Tide return their starting quarterback in Jalen Hurts (last year’s SEC offensive player of the year) for the first time since 2013 but also must replace the seven defensive players who were selected in this year’s NFL draft.

Despite losing both a defensive end and defensive tackle in the first 55 picks of the NFL draft, the Crimson Tide still presents a massive challenge up front. Senior Da’Shawn Hand (6-4, 280) and junior Da’Ron Payne (6-2, 319) are expecting to anchor the Tide’s front, but everyone on Alabama’s defensive line two-deep was a former four- or five-star recruit.

Is Alabama a safe bet in the NCAAF odds against FSU?

Alabama has been dominant in season openers Saban. The Tide are a perfect 10-0 under Saban and have won in impressive fashion. Alabama has outscored its opponents 411-120 in those games and has outgained the opposition, 4,443-1,963. The Tide have averaged 41.1 points per opening contest under Saban and given up just 12.0 points per game.

Alabama has played 74 games as the nation’s top-ranked team since the inception of the Associated Press Poll in 1936. In those games, the Crimson Tide boast a 63-11 (.851) record. Since the ninth game of the 2008 season (116 games), Alabama has played 50 games while being ranked No. 1, posting a 44-6 (.880) record during that span.

Series History

Alabama and Florida State will meet for the fifth time in the history of the two storied programs. The Crimson Tide holds a 2-1- 1 advantage in the series, but the Seminoles were victorious in the latest pairing, claiming a 21-14 victory on Sept. 29, 2007, in Jacksonville, Florida.

  • Total Meetings: 4
  • First Meeting: October 23rd, 1965. Tuscaloosa, Alabama
  • Last Meeting: September 29th, 2007. Jacksonville, Florida.
  • All-Time Series: Alabama 2-1-1
  • Largest Margin of Victory: Alabama 21-0 (1965)
  • Longest Win Streak: Alabama 1 (1965)
  • Current Win Streak: 0

NCAAF Odds Betting Trends

  • Alabama is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games
  • Alabama is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
  • Florida State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • Florida State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Expert NCAAF Odds Pick & Prediction

I think this pushes at 7 points – I’d go down to 6.5 and take Alabama in the NCAAF odds. It wins 34-27.